Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: Wrapping Up the Week

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2010-05-14T02:58:27.663-05:00

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"Here is Matt Tolbert's line in his first year at ...

2009-11-23T14:58:10.404-06:00

"Here is Matt Tolbert's line in his first year at AAA at the same age as Valencia: .293 .353 .427"

Maybe. But trying to compare a third baseman with a career minor league OPS of .834 to a utility guy who's career minor league OPS is 90 points lower doesn't really make much sense.

That doesn't mean Valencia is the greatest thing since Black Butte Porter. His D still needs work and he doesn't hit righties all that well. For every prospect like him who grows up to be Casey Blake, there are a half a dozen more who outgrow third base entirely without the abilty to hit well enough to man first or a corner outfield spot. But giving a 40-Man Roster spot to a guy like Waldrop or Singleton with a lesser resume? That doesn't strike me as sound roster management either.

TT - How about you look at Justin Morneau? He i...

2009-11-21T10:48:21.598-06:00

TT -

How about you look at Justin Morneau? He is always red hot, unable to get out, in the first half. Then he starts to falter after the all-star break and usually ends up hitting sub .200 in september. Everybody hits a slump and Morneau has been in the Majors a long time. I do not see you trying to trade Morneau or release him from the Twins roster.

Lets not jump on Valencia simply because he did not do as well in the second half as he did in the first half.

Here is Matt Tolbert's line in his first year at A...

2009-11-20T14:45:41.615-06:00

Here is Matt Tolbert's line in his first year at AAA at the same age as Valencia: .293 .353 .427

Of course, Tolbert was playing in the middle infield then, not third base. He also only committed 13 errors in over 500 chances in a full season. Valencia committed 12 in 165 chances. Apparently the field that Valencia complains about wasn't a problem for Tolbert who only 3 errors with the same number of chances this year.

But the larger problem with talking about Valencia's numbers in the context of "his first stint at AAA", is that Valencia actually started AAA red hot. He didn't struggle, adjust and get better. The league apparently adjusted and he couldn't. The last half of the season he hit .258 .279 .407. Combined with his defense, I would call that struggling.

get nolasco and have uggla at 2nd or continue with...

2009-11-20T14:05:20.874-06:00

get nolasco and have uggla at 2nd or continue with our pitching staff plus probably jarrod washburn and have orlando cabrera at 2nd. while the nolasco/uggla deal might not look the best right now, but if it keeps guys like washburn and cabrera off the team, everyone will like it much better. i am all for it. it probably won't happen though.

I'm surprised at peoples reaction to Uggla. He'd b...

2009-11-20T14:01:48.525-06:00

I'm surprised at peoples reaction to Uggla. He'd be the best 2nd basemen in a Twins uniform in a long time. I agree this deal is almost certainly BS but damn, I'd be a happy with any trade that netted a postive OPS+ at 2B and nothing else. Throw in a legitimate starting pitcher and I'm pretty excited.

Uggla is a controllable second baseman who has bas...

2009-11-20T13:54:19.729-06:00

Uggla is a controllable second baseman who has basically been good for 30 HR, 90 RBI, 800+ OPS every year he's been in the league. I'm failing to understand why everyone seems to think he's such a detriment.

Nolasco sounds like exactly what we need. Uggla s...

2009-11-20T12:40:35.401-06:00

Nolasco sounds like exactly what we need. Uggla sounds like the bad contract throw-in you often get in NBA trades. Uggla = Blount?

thrylos is a smuck. he gives vague predictions suc...

2009-11-20T10:14:46.132-06:00

thrylos is a smuck. he gives vague predictions such as "a trade is coming soon" or "the twins will claim someone on waivers."

i have a prediction, the twins will sign a free agent. you can call me tostitos scoops.

I guess I should have given more than one team. As...

2009-11-20T09:41:00.516-06:00

I guess I should have given more than one team. Aside from the Brewers, the Mets and the Cubs are rumored to be intersted in Nolasco. Hopefully one of them gets him and Mr. Smith can focus his efforts on more making more fruitful transactions.

And as for Uggla -- OK, Uggla has some power. Fine. But he can barely crack a .250 batting average in the NL. Which means that would plummet once he came to Minnesota. OK, he finds his way on base. But, once again, that all changes once he faces more talented pitchers. And his UZR was a -9.6.

So he can't hit for average, he can't field and he is unlikely to be able to continue his high-.400s OBP after switching leagues.

I guess all-of-a-sudden, power is everything in the Twins front office.

More deals (potentially) being struck with NL team...

2009-11-20T09:03:23.590-06:00

More deals (potentially) being struck with NL teams ... If Bill Smith is content to deal current players for guys who will be well below average for the AL, why not just promote from within? It'd be cheaper and at least there's a chance a guy develops into something.

But this trade seems very unlikely to go through. There are just too many teams in the mix who historically overpay for mediocre pitching (Milwaukee) for the Twins to end up with Nolasco.

Uggla, maybe. But come on. Why?

isn't it sad that we are surprised when the voters...

2009-11-20T08:52:42.447-06:00

isn't it sad that we are surprised when the voters make a good decision for a postseason award?

There is a reason why guys like Danny Valencia don...

2009-11-20T08:44:31.197-06:00

There is a reason why guys like Danny Valencia don't get selected in the Rule 5 draft... because teams protect guys like that on their 40 man rosters!

Great stuff as always, Nick!

Wow, thrylos is really trying to get me to not do ...

2009-11-20T00:51:15.759-06:00

Wow, thrylos is really trying to get me to not do my homework tonight.

Nolasco and Uggla, obviously would be a spectacular package. Nolasco has the makings of an ace. Uggla is obviously no slouch himself. Our lineup would be up there with the Yankees, and the rotation not far behind. All this is assuming, of course, that we aren't trading back much major league talent.

What would it take to get those guys? I don't think Uggla would be too expensive in terms of prospects, because if his production drops at all, he'll be over paid next year. I think a couple of decent prospects would be enough for him. Nolasco, on the other hand is a cheap pitcher who is all ready very good and looks like he could be an ace. Between the two, I have to think we'd have to completely clean the shelves to make this happen.

I'm not very good with this type of thing, but I'd guess it would take a couple of guys in the Swarzak/Perkins category, a couple in the Revere/Ramos category, and maybe some throw ins (Casilla/tolbert). This has the makings of a move that would put us in the cellar of the division in 5 years. If it did happen, I'd expect Detroit to go the other direction (they've been on the fringe) and have a fire sale. Chicago probably the same. We'd be far and away the best team in the division for a few years, but wouldn't have the talent coming through the system to compete in 2015.

Anyway, while this is almost definitely much ado about nothing, I thought it would be fun to plug Nolasco and Uggla into my spreadsheet. As we stand I have us at 89 wins. This is probably too high, because as much as I try to account for injury when portioning playing time, I'm probably not doing it enough. Anyway, with Uggla and Nolasco, that number is 96. Pretty unrealistic to predict a team to win 96 games. That would mean they have like a 40% chance of winning 100 games. But who knows, maybe that's true. Anyway, while that number is probably too high, I think the difference between the two (7 wins) is close to accurate. Again, this is assuming we don't give up much in the way of major league talent.

Anyway, this is almost surely all for nothing, but its fun to talk about someone other than Crede and Washburn for a while.