Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: Mythical Joe Crede

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2010-05-14T02:58:58.906-05:00

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Great read on Crede. As a Sox fan he was always on...

2009-11-23T21:09:18.061-06:00

Great read on Crede. As a Sox fan he was always one of my favorites. The one game that I saw in the Dome this year he hit two dingers. He was a fun player to watch, but his back always was frustrating.

"I'd wage dollars to donuts he's hitting pretty we...

2009-11-20T16:14:18.797-06:00

"I'd wage dollars to donuts he's hitting pretty well with a runner on first and no outs)"

That doesn't happen very often when you bat third. Especially if the number two hitter isn't an on base guy. It is going to happen a lot with a guy like Span.

And its not just Mauer. Morneau will get also fewer opportunities to drive in runs batting third than he would cleanup. Those opportunities will also go to the guys lower in the order.

"I suspect would be more than made up for by the increased number of plate appearances he and the rest of the core hitters would receive"

The number 2 hitter on the Twins had 17 more plate appearances than the number 3 hitter. If you move the number two hitter to the sixth spot ahead of Delmon Young, then Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer will get 60 more plate appearances combined - 15 each. And of course the number two guy will get Cuddyer's opportunities to drive in runs. Or you can move Young up and give him an extra 26 plate appearances and Cuddyer's RBI opportunities.

If Mauer batted second in every game that is going...

2009-11-20T15:31:14.580-06:00

If Mauer batted second in every game that is going to be 162 plate appearances, about 1/4 of his total for the season. With Span leading off he will be on base about 40% of the time, most often at first base.

If Mauer is batting third his first plate appearance will still be 1/4 of his total. But he will have one runner on about 46% of the time and two runners on base 12% of the time even if the number two hitter only gets on base 30% of the time.

Last year Mauer had 272 plate appearances with runners on base and 65 with two runners on. Moving him to the number two spot would take away a minimum of 48 and 20 repectively.

I didn't adjust for home runs which will have some impact. But the notion that what happens in the first inning is insignificant is simply inaccurate.

Its the top of the order that scores runs and the first time through the order is the only time they are guaranteed to start with a clean slate. In later at bats there may be some runners on base from the bottom of the order, but more often there will already be some outs.

"Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't know we were making that ...

2009-11-20T14:51:15.709-06:00

"Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't know we were making that differentiation. Wonder why I would have thought that? "

Because this is what I wrote:

"With a runner on first and no one out, the approach of the hitter is going to be to try to move that runner into scoring position, not to drive the ball."

Beth- Apparently you do not know the reason behin...

2009-11-20T11:45:10.617-06:00

Beth-

Apparently you do not know the reason behind the Twins signing Crede. The twins knew long before signing Crede that he was not a great OBP or avg hitter. The Twins BROUGHT HIM IN to play GREAT DEFENSE (which he did) and to PROVIDE power to the bottom of the order (which he also did).

Not every player is a "hitter". Span is a "hitter" - Ryan Howard is hitter. There is a difference and Crede belongs in the Ryan Howard category.

I would like to address the myth that a few big hi...

2009-11-19T15:27:54.896-06:00

I would like to address the myth that a few big hits makes up for a bad average. If Crede were in a different profession, lets say Firefighting, we would not be ok with a few big saves and no action the rest of the time... He was brought in to hit, it isn't happening!

-- I'm quite sure the commenter was not inquiring ...

2009-11-19T12:24:59.095-06:00

-- I'm quite sure the commenter was not inquiring whether managers consult with the basic statistics you prefer. --

Yes Nick. You are correct. I was referring to advanced metrics.

I suspect would be more than made up for by the in...

2009-11-19T03:53:39.444-06:00

I suspect would be more than made up for by the increased number of plate appearances he and the rest of the core hitters would receive...

Great point. We are not only getting a poor hitter less plate appearances and giving Mauer more, we're also giving Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer more plate appearances.

I just don't understand what isn't to like about Mauer in the 2 hole. He has too much power? Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel all have similar or better power than Mauer. He is a better hitter because he hits more singles and walks more. Singles and walks are just as good to start an inning as they are to drive people in. Also, Mauer is a very good baserunner. He doesn't steal bases, but always takes the extra base when needed. He is one of the best contact hitters in the game, and hits the ball to all fields, so he's obviously a great guy to hit and run with.

Where's the downside? You give your best hitters more plate appearances, a bad hitter less. You have less outs in front of your good hitters. You aren't losing any baserunning or contact skills. Even if we are trading a few RBI opportunities for Mauer for a few opportunities to get on base for other guys, I just can't see how this could be a worse scenario over all.

Manny Acta is a big Sabermetrics guy. The Red Sox...

2009-11-19T03:36:25.857-06:00

Manny Acta is a big Sabermetrics guy. The Red Sox, Rays, and Mariners all have very sabermetrically inclined organizations, and consult with their managers about decisions like this more than a team like the Twins does.

Uh Nick - was that with no one out? Do you follow ...

2009-11-19T03:03:33.335-06:00

Uh Nick - was that with no one out? Do you follow how the game of baseball is played, or just read spreadsheets?

Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't know we were making that differentiation. Wonder why I would have thought that? Oh, maybe it's because you said that "If Span gets on base 40% of the time, Mauer hitting second is going to be following him with a 'get-him-over' approach 40% of the time." Which of course is only true one time per game, because contrary to what you may believe the leadoff batter does not lead off an inning every time he bats.

The number of outs that Mauer would waste by using this "get-him-over" approach you speak of (which I sincerely doubt is reflected by the facts; if Mauer is hitting a robust .406 with a runner on first I'd wage dollars to donuts he's hitting pretty well with a runner on first and no outs), I suspect would be more than made up for by the increased number of plate appearances he and the rest of the core hitters would receive, the decreased number of plate appearances the Orlando Cabrera clone alternative would receive, and the fewer outs the Twins would waste on needless sacrifice bunts.

That answers that question. In fact all managers base their lineup and roster decisions to some extent on the results players get aka statistics.

There are differences in the statistics you and I lay credence to. I'm quite sure the commenter was not inquiring whether managers consult with the basic statistics you prefer.

"Mauer batted .406 with a runner only on first bas...

2009-11-18T19:38:11.944-06:00

"Mauer batted .406 with a runner only on first base this year. That "get-him-over" approach was clearly his undoing. Such wasted talent."

Uh Nick - was that with no one out? Do you follow how the game of baseball is played, or just read spreadsheets?

"I've never heard of any basing lineup or roster decisions on them."

That answers that question. In fact all managers base their lineup and roster decisions to some extent on the results players get aka statistics.

"TT, Do you really believe that major league players don't try to drive the ball in that situation? "

Yes. I think that major league players in that situation sacrifice some of their power to make sure they make contact and move the runner over. At least, I think that is what they are coached to do. That is the reason the ideal for the number two hitter is a guy who can execute a hit and run.

Hey nick -- are you aware of any major league mana...

2009-11-18T16:02:16.431-06:00

Hey nick -- are you aware of any major league managers who pay attention to meaningful statistics and think progressively about their players and how to use them correctly? If not, how long do you think it will be before we start seeing some in the bigs?

Great question. I'm sure there are some out there who take modern statistics into consideration, but I've never heard of any basing lineup or roster decisions on them. It can't be long before that starts happening, though.

Hey nick -- are you aware of any major league mana...

2009-11-18T15:49:42.708-06:00

I have no problem with the idea of signing Lopez. ...

2009-11-18T14:54:10.242-06:00

I have no problem with the idea of signing Lopez. The problem, as I stated after listing Myth No. 4, is that if Crede is signed then the Twins won't sign a second baseman. Punto is going to be starting somewhere in the infield on Opening Day, that much is essentially guaranteed. As I stated in the post, I'd prefer that he were starting at third with a legitimate OBP guy (such as Lopez) starting at second and batting in the two-hole.

I presented Beltre last week as a desirable but wholly unrealistic option for the Twins. I don't think they'll commit the type of years or money that he wants. With that said, I'm hardly going to advise against bringing him in because he'd be blocking Valencia. I like Valencia, but he ain't exactly Evan Longoria.

Nick - I have to disagree with you on some point...

2009-11-18T12:28:10.334-06:00

Nick -

I have to disagree with you on some points. Crede, when healthy, is amazing with the glove and provides power to the bottom of the order. However, in the event of an injury, we do have Valencia (who will not be blocked unless we sign Beltre long term), or Punto.

Twins should use their money to sign Felipe Lopez. We are in desperate need of a OBP player in the #2 hole. The thing you are overlooking is that if the Twins do sign Beltre, who in the world will they stick #2 ahead of Mauer? Mauer is cemented in the #3 spot and that will never change.

Lopez provides OBP ahead of Mauer. This provides Mauer with not one but two runners to drive in. We should re-sign Crede and put him in the field and at the bottom of the order when he is healthy. Punto would then be his backup (I dont like it but he is basically guaranteed a spot by Gardy).

Beltre would bring some power and defense to this club, but I find the Twins already have power (Mauer, Hardy, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer..Young). Why not go out and sign the OBP person to hit behind Span and in front of Mauer? Re-sign Crede and play him when he feels good (i.e. 3x a week), while Punto plays the rest (i.e. 4x a week). Valencia will get some conditioning in AAA and should be ready to come up by July/August if needed.

Mauer batted .406 with a runner only on first base...

2009-11-18T00:15:25.454-06:00

Mauer batted .406 with a runner only on first base this year. That "get-him-over" approach was clearly his undoing. Such wasted talent.

So where does Punto play? Isn't that the key to w...

2009-11-17T22:40:22.432-06:00

So where does Punto play? Isn't that the key to what we do with Crede?

I'll give you a scenario if we sign a 2b and put Punto on 3rd base. Punto struggles. Valencia gets hot in AAA. Smith calls him up. He plays one game, makes a rookie mistake. Gardy fixates on the mistake and keeps him on the bench. His pet keeps playing. Valencia never builds any confidence and never develops as he could.

Maybe we should just put Punto on 1b. We played a lot better last year once that Morneau guy was out of the lineup.

"With a runner on first and no one out, the approa...

2009-11-17T22:35:02.925-06:00

"With a runner on first and no one out, the approach of the hitter is going to be to try to move that runner into scoring position, not to drive the ball."

TT, Do you really believe that major league players don't try to drive the ball in that situation? I am speechless. We'll just have to continue to disagree.

"Markov chains are the "guts" of all linear weight...

2009-11-17T21:40:23.345-06:00

"Markov chains are the "guts" of all linear weights and run estimators. They are the basis for WPA and run expectancy matrices."

I know and Tango and company are putting out pure hokum. Its no more real than Hari Seldon.

"Saying the don't perfectly mirror baseball so we shouldn't use them is like saying physics doesn't perfectly mirror reality and therefore is useless."

No, its not. At least, not unless you think its God consciously playing with reality that is causing your physics model to fail.

The fact is that baseball data is not a result of random actions, its being constantly optimized for the situation by the people playing the game. Is there any reason to think players are lying when they say they change their approach at the plate depending on the game situation? Is there any reason to think that doesn't produce different results?

With a runner on first and no one out, the approach of the hitter is going to be to try to move that runner into scoring position, not to drive the ball. If Span gets on base 40% of the time, Mauer hitting second is going to be following him with a "get-him-over" approach 40% of the time.

Putting Mauer in situations where he is forced to approach at bats in that way is a waste of his talent. And when you make an out 60% of the time, you can't afford to take any other approach. The chances that one of the next two hitters will get a hit and drive in a runner in scoring position is still better than the chances Mauer will get a hit.

Markov chains are the "guts" of all linear weights...

2009-11-17T20:56:59.212-06:00

Markov chains are the "guts" of all linear weights and run estimators. They are the basis for WPA and run expectancy matrices.

Saying the don't perfectly mirror baseball so we shouldn't use them is like saying physics doesn't perfectly mirror reality and therefore is useless.

Articles discussing in depth how Markov chains are used in sabermetrics can be found at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-markov-chains/ and http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html

"Cabrera never batted with Mauer on base and had 1...

2009-11-17T16:27:34.578-06:00

"Cabrera never batted with Mauer on base and had 17% more baserunners per PA. Casilla rarely batted with Mauer on base and had 22% more baserunners per PA."

Its amazing what happens with small sample sizes. The Twins had a team OBP in August and September of .355. For the rest of the year it was almost 20 points lower. Span had a .458 OBP during August hitting in front of Cabrera. And in September, Cabrera had a .338 OBP while driving in 23 runs and .336 for the second half overall. Both are better than that average for the number nine hitter.

You can play with numbers all day long. Getting on base is only one attribute you look for in a number two hitter. You also want someone who has at least a little pop in his bat, will make contact and can move runners up where they can score on a hit by the three and four hitters. Punto was never very good at any of those and it is a waste to have Span moving runners over instead of focusing on getting on base.

If Mauer bats second behind Span, he will have a runner on base about 40% of the time for his first at bat, usually on first base. If you have another batter second who gets on base even 30% of the time, Mauer will have 75% more runners on base. Its also likely the lead runner will be closer to scoring. That will also be true for Justin Morneau who will also get fewer opportunities. Instead those opportunities will shift down the order to Kubel and Cuddyer.

And while the number nine hitter will be closer to Mauer in later at bats, so will the number 7 and number 8 hitters whose ability to get on base now have a larger effect on Mauer's chances. At some point that guy you pulled out of number two is going to get his at bats.

As for Markov chains, they are a mathematical construct that is largely inappropriate for predicting human behaviors. It sounds impressive though.

Nick, you've turned me around on signing Crede. I...

2009-11-17T15:58:19.077-06:00

Nick, you've turned me around on signing Crede. I was in favor of it assuming we could get a guy like Beltre on another incentive-laden contract as a bridge to Valencia, but I'm seeing the flaws in this. Of course, one of the major flaws in this analysis is the fact that Punto will always get a starting job so long as Gardy is the manager...

But in a year where there are a few 2B & 3B options out there that would be upgrades over Crede's out-machine batting performance it does make more sense to go get one of those guys for the money we'd be willing to drop on a healthy Crede.

Using Markov chains to estimate run scoring, the T...

2009-11-17T13:16:54.301-06:00

Using Markov chains to estimate run scoring, the Twins cost themselves 0.05 r/g with a lineup of Span, Hardy, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Harris, Punto vs sliding Hardy down to 7th and everyone else up. That equates to 9 runs a year or about 1 win.

Cabrera never batted with Mauer on base and had 17...

2009-11-17T12:38:28.428-06:00

Cabrera never batted with Mauer on base and had 17% more baserunners per PA. Casilla rarely batted with Mauer on base and had 22% more baserunners per PA. Limiting Joe Mauer's RBI opportunities is clearly a flaw in lineup construction. I agree with Nick that it is due to the poor OBP from the 2nd spot.

The Twins scored 4.91 runs/game while Mauer batted 2nd. 4.59 runs/game on the year. This was also when Span was out with vertigo.

There is no reason that Cuddyer couldn't hit in the 2 hole. He has an above average OBP and is an average baserunner. Being RH is also a bonus in our lineup. The team would benefit from getting extra AB from a good hitter instead of a Casilla or Tolbert.