Nick's Twins Blog

Was Ryan Too Quick on the Trigger?

2012-01-27T00:00:00.006-06:00

I've generally been pleased with the moves the Twins have made this offseason. In his return to the helm, Terry Ryan has wisely allowed some overpriced free agents to depart while signing solid producers like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit to bargain deals with little downside.

Two moves that have rubbed me the wrong way, however, are the Kevin Slowey trade and the Matt Capps signing. This isn't because I take issue with the decisions that were made – trading Slowey was certainly justifiable and Capps filled a need as a hard-throwing late-inning righty – but rather the timing.

Ryan has been aggressive in addressing needs and taking care of business this offseason. The Slowey swap and the Capps contract, like the majority of the Twins' moves this winter, were both pulled off before Christmas. However, in neither case was there a need to rush, and events that have occurred recently have made the Twins' haste in those decisions appear rather misguided.

I addressed my quibbles with the Slowey trade earlier this week, when I pointed out that new needs tend to arise for teams as the season approaches and that a better market to trade the embattled starter would have likely developed had the Twins simply shown patience.

With Capps, the Twins clearly overpaid. He's a solid reliever and his $4.75 million deal for next year might be considered reasonable in a different offseason, but not this year. Not with him coming off an ineffecitve campaign and with a sizable crop of similar right-handed relievers on the market competing for jobs. Not with Ryan Madson forced to settle for a one-year deal; with Brad Lidge signing for only $1 million; with Dan Wheeler taking a minor-league contract.

There's no way any other team was going to give Capps close to $5 million. Not even close.

I argued back when the Twins re-signed Capps that the public backlash against the move was excessive – because although I certainly recognized it as an overpay at the time, many folks failed to recognize that the righty does have value and will be a boost to the bullpen.

I also embraced the "no such thing as a bad one-year contract" mantra, reasoning that overpaying Capps by a couple million wouldn't hurt the club long-term and wouldn't prevent them from making other cost-effective moves to round out their bullpen. That's not how a high-revenue team playing in a new stadium should operate.

And yet, the Twins have now watched numerous inexpensive setup men come off the board at dirt-cheap prices – including Lidge and Wheeler, who both signed yesterday – while crying poor and suggesting that they're up against their payroll limit. The Joel Zumaya signing was nice, but he should be viewed more as a smart low-risk flier than a safe bet to lock down the seventh or eighth inning.

I'm not a person who has berated the Twins for lowering payroll and it doesn't really bother me that they're spending $30 million less than the Tigers, who play in a similar market. But if they're not willing to add a million dollars to their current payroll fill an obvious need, the Capps deal looks a whole lot worse.

Maybe this grumbling is all for naught. Maybe Ryan plans to nab one of the remaining relief arms to fill that right-handed setup role and provide the type of security that Zumaya and a crop of iffy internal candidates do not.

But if they don't sign anyone else because they significantly overspent in their eagerness to bring Capps back, the Twins will again be setting up their closer to be the villain in a bullpen that could easily turn out thin and unreliable for a second straight year.

Fielder Hardly Seals Division

2012-01-25T00:00:00.002-06:00

While many people had already written off the Twins as contenders in 2012 following a 99-loss season, I've been bullish on their (admittedly slim) chances, reasoning that a whole lot can change health-wise from one season to the next and that no club in the AL Central was looking like a world-beater.

The entire division has largely been in a holding pattern all winter. The White Sox, Indians and Royals haven't made impact additions. The Twins have brought in several new players, but all have been designated to fill newly created vacancies. (Willingham for Cuddyer, Marquis for Slowey, Zumaya for Nathan, Doumit for Kubel, etc.)

And those reigning champs? Coming off a 95-win campaign, the Tigers had been conspicuously quiet, seemingly content to maintain the status quo and take another run with largely the same group that succeeded a year ago. Sounded similar to the Twins' approach last offseason.

As it turns out, these Tigers had just been lying in the weeds, waiting to pounce with their royally big move. Yesterday, Detroit signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year deal worth a reported $214 million.

The blockbuster signing comes as a surprise. General manager Dave Dombrowski told reporters less than a week ago that the slugging first baseman was "probably not a good fit," which rung true seeing as how the team already employed one of the best hitters in baseball at Fielder's position. In addition, most were unaware that the Tigers possessed the financial muscle to lock up the game's best under-30 power hitter for a decade.

It's a strong move, and one that bolsters Detroit's roster immensely, ostensibly transforming them from de facto favorites in a weak division to legitimate American League powerhouse. A lineup anchored by Fielder and Miguel Cabrera will strike fear into opposing pitchers, and could approach 900 runs if guys like Alex Avila, Austin Jackson, Delmon Young and Jhonny Peralta are all at the top of their game.

Without question, the Fielder signing weakens Minnesota's chances, which were already sketchy at best. But it would be foolish to write off the rest of the AL Central on the basis of this one move. Here are a few reasons to hold out hope that the Tigers can be toppled this summer:

1) V-Mart is out.

Granted, Detroit just added a guy who drove in 120 runs with a .981 OPS last year. But they also lost a guy who drove in 103 runs with an .850 OPS when Victor Martinez went down with a torn ACL a week ago. Fielder is of course a superior hitter to Martinez, especially in the power department (he out-homered V-Mart 38-12 last year) but it's not like his production is simply sprinkled on top of what Detroit got last year.

2) The rotation is questionable beyond Justin Verlander.

Detroit's starting corps is led by the Ace of Aces, a reigning Cy Young winner and MVP. But outside of Verlander, no pitcher who threw more than 100 innings for the Tigers last year posted an above-average ERA. And does anyone really believe that Doug Fister is going to be able to replicate his 2011 performance? Pitching issues could be magnified by the following:

3) This looks like a slow and defensively awful team.

This lineup will slug, no doubt, but baseball isn't all about hitting and there are few defensive assets to be found on this roster. Delmon is tabbed to man left field, Fielder is a notoriously bad defender at first, and there's been some talk that Cabrera could see time at the hot corner this year. Yeesh. In addition, nobody in the lineup outside of Jackson runs well.

4) Stuff happens.

I can't emphasize this one enough. On paper, the Tigers look like runaway favorites in the AL Central with Fielder aboard. Then again, on paper, the Twins looked the same way to many a year ago. Adam Dunn hadn't posted an OPS under .819 in his career before he logged a .569 mark for Chicago. The Red Sox were the toast of baseball before the they became the laughing stock.

A lot can happen in this game. Things rarely work out the way everyone expects them to. It would be surprising if Detroit failed to outclass the rest of the division this year, but it wouldn't be all that surprising.

If you thought the Twins had a shot two days ago, you shouldn't feel any differently now.

On Slowey, Twins Sold Too Low Once Again

2012-01-23T00:00:00.001-06:00

The Twins have often been criticized in recent years for the paltry returns they've gotten back when trading away players. We've seen Wilson Ramos, J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young and others flipped for questionable returns, only to quickly boost their value elsewhere. Jose Mijares was non-tendered earlier this offseason because the Twins didn't want to pay him $750,000 through arbitration, and he went on to immediately sign with the Royals for $950,000.

In my mind, the Twins front office has shown a persistent weakness in assessing the value of its own talent.

Kevin Slowey appears to be the latest example. Coming off the worst season of his pro career, Slowey was dealt to the Rockies back in December for relief prospect Daniel Turpen. Six weeks later, Colorado turned around and sent Slowey back to the AL Central, trading him to the Indians on Friday for another relief prospect, Zach Putnam.

Given that the Rockies have loaded up on back-end starters since acquiring Slowey and the Indians are now facing uncertainty in their rotation after "Fausto Carmona" was arrested in the Dominican Republic last week on charges of using a false identity, the move makes sense.

What I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around is that the Rockies were able to get a significantly superior prospect in return for Slowey, despite the fact that he hasn't done anything to raise his value since Colorado acquired him.

Let's compare Turpen and Putnam. The former is a 25-year-old who spent the 2011 season pitching in Double-A, where he tallied more walks (35) than strikeouts (33) over 59 2/3 innings while posting a 4.83 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The latter is a year younger, but spent last season in Triple-A, where he posted a strong 68-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings to go along with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Baseball America recently ranked Putnam as the 10th-best prospect in Cleveland's (albeit weak) farm system.

In short, Putnam is a solid prospect who would stand a good chance of factoring into the Twins' bullpen this year and beyond. Turpen is a stagnating minor-leaguer coming off a terrible year, and he didn't receive an invite to big-league camp. He's shuffled between four organizations in the past two years and seems like a long shot to make an eventual impact in the majors.

You can make the case that Slowey was a headache, and that his best days as a pitcher are behind him, and that the Twins won't regret letting him go. But this isn't about Slowey. This is about properly valuing assets and taking advantage of opportunities to infuse the organization with talent -- an opportunity that the front office, at best, failed to take full advantage of here.

Maybe Slowey had to go, but what was the rush to move him in early December? Why not wait until a more motivated buyer than Colorado came along? Perhaps in spring training when injuries pop up and needs arise, potentially leading to a better market?

When the Slowey-for-Turpen swap went down, I was surprised that no club was willing to part with more than a marginal minor-league relief arm for a 27-year-old starting pitcher with a big-league track record, a dominant minor-league résumé and a reasonable price tag. As it turns out, that wasn't the case. The Twins simply acted too hastily and once again cost themselves in the process.

Morneau and Progress

2012-01-18T01:04:00.000-06:00

About a month from today, Jamey Carroll will turn 38 years old. That will make the veteran infielder, signed by the Twins earlier this offseason to man shortstop over the next couple seasons, the same age as former Minnesota third baseman Corey Koskie.

Of course, while Carroll is enjoying the best years of his pro baseball career, Koskie has been out of the game since 2006, when a concussion sustained in Milwaukee ended his days as a major-leaguer.

An athletic baseball player with a tremendous passion for the game, cut down in his prime by an injury that seemed totally harmless at the time, even to him. I brought up the unfortunate parallel between Koskie and Justin Morneau after the latter had been sidelined for a month by a concussion suffered in 2010, and unfortunately, little has happened since then to dispel such allusions.

In the weeks and months following Morneau's initial incident, Twins trainers repeatedly talked about the "progress" he was making toward getting back on the field. He never returned in 2010, but embarked on an offseason program designed to get him back into playing shape while protecting his head. Again, "progress" was the go-to buzzword in all Morneau updates.

The first baseman returned to the field for for 69 games last year, but was hardly the same player, and after re-triggering concussion symptoms on a fielding attempt in August, he was again shut down for the year. Now, Twins fans are left in the same state of limbo that they were a year ago, with the word "progress" once again being tossed around in the absence of any more substantive news.

At this point, the word has basically lost all meaning, but Twins officials can hardly be blamed for falling back on it. As was the case last winter, they don't know what Morneau's status truly is, or what to expect from him when he shows up in Ft. Myers next month.

That's very unfortunate. As Judd Zulgad wrote yesterday for ESPN 1500, the first baseman's situation is distinctly more worrisome than that of Joe Mauer, who by all accounts is feeling much stronger after a surgery-free offseason.

It seems likely that Mauer will be able to play at a high level this year, and even if his balky knee prevents him from catching full-time, the club has added a couple intriguing backup options at catcher in Ryan Doumit and J.R. Towles (a former outstanding prospect who's worth keeping an eye on).

But there's no one who can replace the value that a healthy Morneau provides, both on and off the field. Team insiders suggest that, with Michael Cuddyer gone, Morneau is the one player who can step in as a vocal clubhouse anchor, with the kind of fiery personality to rally the troops and avoid a catastrophe similar to last year.

If Morneau can't go, not only will the Twins lack a slugging first baseman capable of pounding 30 home runs with 100-plus RBI -- they'll also lack an obvious candidate to provide true leadership on this club, whatever you believe that's worth.

Certainly the league's award voters have recognized Morneau's value as stretching beyond his numbers. He won the AL MVP in 2006 with a questionable statistical case and placed second in 2008 with even lesser numbers, despite the Twins missing the playoffs.

Mauer might be the Twins' best player, but Morneau is a vital cog. His uncertain (at best) status going forward is probably the No. 1 overarching concern that surrounds this 2012 team.

For the sake of Twins fans – and him and his family more than anything – I hope his "progress" this offseason is a lot more meaningful than in past instances.

ZOOM! Twins Add Powerful, But Fragile, Bullpen Arm

2012-01-16T00:00:00.003-06:00

For Twins fans, the image is tough to forget.

Joel Zumaya was pitching to Delmon Young in the eighth inning of a late June game at Target Field. On a full count, the right-hander reared back and unleashed a 99 mph fastball, which Young fouled off.

It was immediately obvious that something went very wrong with Zumaya on the pitch, as he quickly clutched his right elbow and collapsed to the ground in extreme pain. His right hand was shaking violently as his coaches and teammates huddled around him near the pitcher's mound.

As it would turn out, Zumaya suffered an elbow fracture on the delivery, specifically to the olecranon, which is the top-most point of the ulna (shown to the right). It was the latest in a long line of arm injuries for the righty – the nature of the beast when your game is built around hurling triple-digit heaters – and it's kept him off the field for the last year and a half.

Zumaya can't have fond memories of Target Field, but it looks like he'll return to pitch at the site of his most gruesome injury, as he's reportedly agreed to terms with the Twins on a one-year deal. Pending a physical – which is no simple formality in this case – the reliever will earn a base salary of $800,000 plus incentives to serve as a much-needed right-handed power arm at the back end of the bullpen.

While auditioning in front of an army of scouts back in December, Zumaya was reportedly registering between 93-96 mph with decent command. That's a step back from his previous elite heat (his fastball was averaging 99.3 mph in 2010 before he went down) but it would still qualify him as the hardest thrower on the Twins' staff, and he'll likely add some ticks in spring training if he can stay healthy.

That's a big "if," obviously, as the newly added setup man will join a lengthy list of health question marks in Ft. Myers. Still, Zumaya is only 27, and broken bones tend to heal more reliably than torn ligaments. If the fireballer can finally make his way through a full season with good health – something he hasn't done since his rookie year in 2006 – he could provide a huge boost from the right side in the late innings.

And if things don't work out, the Twins won't be out much money, as his deal is non-guaranteed and his base salary is barely more than the club would've paid to keep Jose Mijares around. This is the kind of low-risk, high-upside signing that Terry Ryan should be looking to make whenever he can, especially with the payroll restrictions that have been imposed upon him.

The fact remains, though, that if Zumaya's arm fails him as it has in five straight seasons, Alex Burnett stands to be the top fallback option. We'll see if Ryan is done shopping for relief help.

Thoughts on Payroll

2012-01-13T00:00:00.026-06:00

Geoff Baker, a scribe for The Seattle Times, penned a lengthy but very interesting column earlier this week about spending in baseball.

I recommend taking the time to read it, as the themes are very applicable for Twins fans, but the gist of his argument is that ultra-rich baseball owners are gaming the system by soaking up public money and spending far less on payroll than they can afford to. Meanwhile, the baseball community overlooks this injustice and credits general managers (such as Billy Beane, Andrew Friedman and Terry Ryan) who are able to succeed under superficial and ultimately unnecessary financial constraints.

I've heard plenty of Twins fans express outrage over the team's decision to cut payroll this year, and the points made by Baker in his widely read column only serve to fan the flames. In many ways, I can identify with these gripes. But I also wonder whether some fans are getting too caught up in their frustration, to the point where it's dampening their enjoyment of the sport.

Look, we all wish the Twins would spend more money. Basically every fan wishes their team would spend more money. But as Baker's column points out, the problem is systemic. I don't see him naming one single owner who is bucking the trend and dumping money out of his own pocket into payroll.

These guys generally become millionaires (or billionaires) through savvy business decisions and by running a profitable organization, so that's how they operate their baseball clubs. They put the money that their product earns back into that product -- into payroll, into paying employees, into community funds -- and yes, maybe they pocket a little. That's their right. They own the team.

Baker makes it seem unconscionable for any fan to be content with this model, but really, what is any amount of whining and complaining going to accomplish? The Twins have always claimed they put around 50-52 percent of revenue back into payroll, which would indicate a current annual revenue stream of around $200 million. Maybe they make more, but is there any evidence for that other than blind frustration? They don't open their books, and they aren't required to.

If you take their word for it, the Twins went over their stated threshold last year because they wanted to retain a few extra players (namely Jim Thome and Carl Pavano) and make a push. Didn't work out. I think we can all agree that their prospects for contending this year are not as strong, so I'm not going to sit here and blast them for falling back to the $100 million level that has been set as a baseline. They've demonstrated that they're willing to exceed that benchmark when the time is right, but now is probably not that time.

One hundred million dollars, spent well, should be plenty to contend in this division. It puts the Twins solidly in the upper half of MLB team payrolls. Yes, the Pohlads could afford to spend more, but so could every other owner. That's just the way it is, and the way it shall be.

By endlessly complaining about a situation that's not likely to change any time soon (and that we, as individual fans, have no real control over, regardless of Baker's rant) you're wasting your breath and sucking the fun out of the game for yourself.

Are the Twins Delusional?

2012-01-12T00:27:00.000-06:00

In Sunday's edition of the Star Tribune, Patrick Reusse suggested that the Twins – like the Vikings – are deluded in their assessment of being able to compete in the short-term.

He's certainly not alone in his stance. Almost every day, whether here in the comments section, or on Twitter, or on other blogs and media outlets, I see people grumbling about the approach being taken by the Twins' front office this winter.

The team lost 99 games last year. Do they honestly believe in their asserted convictions that a return to contention in 2012 is possible, or is this lip service aimed at stimulating ticket sales? If it's the latter, why are they pumping payroll into veteran players like Jamey Carroll and Jason Marquis, who seemingly function as finishing touches on a contending roster rather than useful pieces in a rebuilding process?

What many people seem to forget is that the roster from a year ago is still largely intact. Sure, players like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are gone, but their replacements – Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit – stand a good chance of replacing the lost production.

The Twins are a year removed from winning the AL Central in dominant fashion, carried by the contributions of many players that are still under team control and still in their physical primes. It's true that a litany of injury concerns surround the club's roster, but that was also true last year – a point I repeatedly tried to get across to jovial fans still reveling in the wake of a 94-win season.

No one could have expected the Twins to lose nearly 100 games last year, not even me in my relatively pessimistic outlook. It took an all-out worst-case scenario, with extraordinarily bad luck striking the entire organization.

But it also took poor planning from a general manager who showed little foresight in recognizing his team's health concerns and the lack of palatable contingency plans. This is an area where I feel that Terry Ryan has improved dramatically over Bill Smith.

No one really knows that to expect from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Francisco Liriano or Scott Baker this year. Maybe their injury issues will carry over into 2012, again causing them to miss large chunks of the season. Maybe they'll be healthy enough to play, but not effective enough to fuel a 25-game turnaround in the standings.

Or maybe they'll benefit from an offseason of rest and rehab, returning to perform like the cornerstones they've been at various times in the past. And maybe, with help from solid complementary pieces like Willingham, Doumit and Carroll, that will be enough to give the Twins a shot in a division that can often be taken with fewer than 90 wins.

I'll fully acknowledge that the latter scenario is far less likely than the former. But I don't think it's delusional. And I also think that, even if you believe the Twins are destined to be a .500 club at best, there's still nothing wrong with Ryan's decision to pad the roster with reasonably priced veteran depth.

Reusse argues in his column that players like Brian Dozier and Chris Hermann should be given an opportunity to get some run in the big leagues this year. Others have stated that this hopeless season should be used to allow Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks to gain valuable MLB experience.

The thing is, none of those guys have spent any time in Triple-A yet (except for Hendriks, who threw 49 innings in Rochester last year). They'll all be in the organization and available whether or not players like Carroll and Marquis are on board, and going with the veterans out of the gate enables those prospects to prove that they're big-league ready rather than being thrown into the fire and leaving Ron Gardenhire with the same kind of depth problems that plagued him last year.

Is it delusional to believe the Twins can hang in the AL Central this year? I say no. And even if it is, there's nothing wrong with the approach being taken by the front office. Whether you're looking to contend or rebuild, depth is a good thing.

Is Nick Blackburn Undervalued?

2012-01-09T00:00:00.003-06:00

One couldn't be blamed for writing off Nick Blackburn as an afterthought in the Twins' 2012 starting pitching equation.

After all, he's been pretty bad over the past two seasons. In fact, "pretty bad" might be an understatement – he's been one of baseball's most hittable pitchers, prone to stretches of mind-numbingly horrible performance. His once-premier walk rate has deteriorated into mediocrity, leaving him with little in the way of strengths to fall back on.

So it's easy to forget the fact that, prior to 2010, Blackburn was a pretty dang valuable pitcher. After emerging as a legitimate prospect in 2007, he became a staple in the Twins' rotation, hurling around 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009.

After that '09 campaign, the Twins signed Blackburn to a four-year extension worth $14 million. It was a totally unnecessary move that has unsurprisingly backfired, but there was valid reason for the club's faith in the right-hander. Over that two-year stretch, Blackburn was indisputably their most reliable starting pitcher.

Yes, he has been mostly a mess over the past two seasons, and there's a temptation to profile those struggles as symptomatic of his non-dominant, pitch-to-contact approach. But that was the same style he employed while serving as a steady boon amidst the rotation in his first two seasons.

Indeed, his troubles in 2010 and 2011 have very likely stemmed from health issues more than anything else. And while that's not reason to excuse them, it's a fact that should provide fans with hope that he can return to form if his latest surgery takes.

In his first year at Target Field, Blackburn finished with a 5.42 ERA and career-low 3.8 K/9 rate over 161 innings. Ugly numbers, to be sure, but after the season it was revealed that he had (perhaps foolishly) been pitching through elbow discomfort for much of the year. Shortly after the Twins were ousted from the playoffs, he underwent minor surgery on the elbow.

Early on in 2011, Blackburn appeared to have returned to form. Over the first three months of the season, he looked as good as ever, turning in a 3.64 ERA over 101 innings. He was on pace for another solid 200-inning campaign, but things quickly derailed around the halfway point; after the start of July, Blackburn made only 10 more starts, posting a 6.32 ERA over 47 innings while allowing 70 hits and 26 walks.

The sagging control stood out as the most worrisome red flag for the righty, who even during his rough spells had traditionally thrown the ball over the plate. After issuing four walks while recording just four outs against the Yankees on August 21st, Blackburn was pulled and shut down for the season. He'd later be diagnosed with an entrapped nerve in his forearm, for which he underwent surgery in late September.

This procedure was more serious than the one in 2010, as it left Blackburn in a splint for six weeks, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. He'll be one of several question marks among the club's starting pitching crop this year, but it's important to bear in mind that when he's been healthy, Blackburn has been a legitimate asset to the rotation.

His $4.75 million salary – guaranteed as the result of that misguided extension inked two years ago – currently looks like a liability. But it's entirely possible that by the end of the season, it'll look like a solid bargain.

Like with so many other Twins players this year, it will all come down to health.

The Turbulent Career of Frankie Franchise

2012-01-05T00:00:00.002-06:00

I can still vividly recall Francisco Liriano's first start of the 2006 season.

The date was May 19, and the struggling Twins were in Milwaukee to face the Brewers. I was in attendance at Miller Park that day, sitting along the first base line and eager to see the electric 22-year-old southpaw break into the rotation.

It had been a long time coming. Over the first six weeks of a season that saw the Twins stumble to a 10-game deficit in the AL Central, Liriano was a rare bright spot, thoroughly dominating opposing hitters in short bullpen stints.

He excelled that day, hurling five innings of one-run ball while allowing only two singles and facing two batters over the minimum. For good measure, he chipped in an RBI double at the plate. Frankie Franchise had arrived.

He built on that first start and quickly became baseball's most dazzling rookie, figuring prominently into the biggest turnaround in franchise history by nearly guaranteeing a victory every time he took the mound. In 14 starts through the end of July, Liriano went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 105-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 92 2/3 innings, holding opposing hitters to a .162 average and .482 OPS. Meanwhile, the Twins went from seven games below .500 to 17 above.

Liriano was a specimen the likes of which I'd never witnessed as a Twins fan. Sure, I'd seen some great starting pitchers come through; Brad Radke succeeded on pinpoint control, while Johan Santana kept hitters off-balance with a devastatingly deceptive changeup.

But Liriano was pure gas. He unleashed 96 mph fastballs and mixed in a steady diet of biting sliders that whipped across the zone in the upper-80s.

The young Dominican was an absolute joy to watch, and a gleaming beacon of hope for the club's future, so I was heartbroken when he slumped off the mound grasping his elbow after recording six outs against the Athletics in mid-September. He would require the dreaded Tommy John surgery, leading to an arduous road to recovery that featured far more valleys than peaks.

He missed the entire 2007 season while rehabbing. In 2008, he was mostly effective, if underwhelming. In 2009, he was a complete mess, unable to find the strike zone and maddeningly inconsistent. Following the season, he regained his confidence while pitching in winter ball and carried that momentum forward to put together his most complete season in 2010, looking at times very similar to the prodigy that took the league by storm in '06.

But last year, it was back to square one. Liriano's command unraveled, his shoulder barked, his work ethic came into question, and he gradually lost the confidence of his teammates, coaches and fans.

Now, with the 2012 season approaching, the Twins are looking to rebound from a disastrous campaign, and their ability to do so will be highly contingent on Liriano's ability to do the same.

In a rotation littered with mediocre contact pitchers, Liriano stands out as perhaps the one true hope for a dominant front line starter. He was obviously a far cry being that guy last year, so if the Twins are to contend this season they will almost certainly require a massive transformation from their most talented – and frustrating – starting pitcher.

Does he have it in him? Ever the Frankie diehard, I'll choose to focus on the similar metamorphosis that took place from 2009 to 2010 (especially since that offseason, like this one, featured a stint in the Dominican Winter League).

And I'll invariably drift back to that day in May of 2006 when this whole crazy ride began.

Internal Righty Relief Options

2012-01-04T00:00:00.003-06:00

Yesterday I listed a number of appealing free agents who could fill the Twins' need for right-handed help in the bullpen. I believe that if Terry Ryan wants to provide Ron Gardenhire with a reliable stable for the late innings, he'll need to spend a couple million to bring aboard one of these tried-and-true veterans.

However, I also believe that there are a number of intriguing in-house candidates that should not be ignored. While none of the following six relievers ought to be counted on outright as the club's top righty setup man from the start of the season, they all have a chance to make valuable contributions in the seventh and eighth inning this year and beyond.

Alex Burnett

In general, Twins fans are down on Burnett after watching him struggle to a 5.40 ERA with the big-league club over the past two seasons. However, I would urge those fans very strongly not to rush to judgment. While he's had his growing pains, Burnett is a 24-year-old with a fastball in the mid-90s and a slider that touches the upper-80s.

After dominating Ft. Myers and New Britain as a 21-year-old transitioning to the bullpen in 2009, Burnett never got much of a chance to pitch in Triple-A and has had to acclimate to the big leagues on the fly. He's still young and he's got a powerful arm. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see him develop into the team's best right-handed eighth-inning option by the end of the year.

Anthony Slama

Injuries limited Slama to 37 innings in Triple-A last season and also probably cost him a chance to contribute much for the Twins, but he was as dominant as ever in Rochester before going down, striking out 42 while allowing only 27 hits with a 2.92 ERA. He avoided surgery for an achy right elbow at the end of the season and has pitched well in Mexico this winter, with a 1.76 ERA and 19-to-5 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.

Slama turns 28 on Friday and it's unclear whether the Twins will ever have much interest in giving him a shot in the bigs, as they removed him from the 40-man roster at season's end, but his consistently spectacular numbers in the minors certainly warrant an extended look.

Lester Oliveros

Acquired from the Tigers for Delmon Young in August, Oliveros is a high-velocity, high-upside arm. He's had his bouts with control issues, but has averaged 11.2 K/9 in the minors and is still only 23 years old. While pitching in Venezuela this winter, he has posted a 1.33 ERA with 18 strikeouts and nine walks over 20 1/3 innings while touching the upper-90s with his fastball.

Carlos Gutierrez

Gutierrez, 25, works with a hard and heavy heater that induces tons of grounders, helping him limit opposing hitters to 16 home runs in 321 career innings in the minors. In 2011, he notched 57 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings for Rochester. That combination of whiffs and worm burners makes him very intriguing, although he needs to get better at limiting hits and walks. I came away very impressed after seeing him live at spring training last year.

Deolis Guerra

The last remaining prospect acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade, Guerra has largely been a disappointment since switching organizations. Last year, after another poor start in New Britain, the Twins finally gave up on him as a starter and shifted him to a bullpen role, where Guerra abruptly blossomed. After switching around the start of June, the hefty 6-foot-5 hurler posted a 2.80 ERA with 55 strikeouts and 11 walks over 45 innings. He's continued working as a reliever in the Venezuelan Winter League, posting a 3.71 ERA and 23-to-7 K/BB ratio over 26 2/3 innings. He's still only 22.

Jared Burton

Burton is distinctly different from the rest of the players on this list in that, at age 30, he's not really a prospect anymore. He was, once, and he turned in a couple good seasons for the Reds in 2007 and 2008, but over the past few years he's battled injuries and after the 2011 season Cincinnati let him walk. The Twins smartly signed him to a minor-league contract to see if he can regain his prior form. It's an excellent gamble with no risk, and the type of move that could end up making Ryan look very, very smart.

Right-Handed FA Options for the Bullpen

2012-01-03T00:19:00.000-06:00

After rounding out their rotation with the addition of right-hander Jason Marquis a couple weeks ago, the Twins took a holiday hiatus -- and so did I. Now, with 2012 officially underway, it's time for the front office to turn its attention toward adding the final pieces of the puzzle as they seek a return to respectability.

Terry Ryan got most of his shopping done early this offseason, utilizing free agency to address several of the club's greatest needs -- a shortstop, a right fielder, a versatile backup catcher and a starting pitcher -- before Christmas. Now, the one unit that stands out as the most lacking is the bullpen.

Fortunately, as is often the case after the holiday season, there are plenty of options left on the shelf and they should be available at a reduced price.

With Matt Capps re-signed to join southpaws Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing, the Twins have a solid base for the back end of the bullpen. What they clearly need now is another right-handed arm for the late innings.

Here are a few free agent righty relievers that the budget-conscious Twins should consider targeting in the coming weeks:

Brad Lidge
Age: 35 | 2011 Stats: 19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 23 K / 13 BB, 1.50 WHIP

Lidge was limited to under 20 innings by injury last year, but despite some control issues he was pretty effective when able to take the mound. The slider-slinging right-hander had hoped to land a closer job this winter, but those opportunities have dried up quickly and he'll probably have to settle for a one-year deal as a setup man. He carries some question marks, but holds plenty of upside.

Todd Coffey
Age: 31 | 2011 Stats: 59 2/3 IP, 3.62 ERA, 46 K / 20 BB, 1.26 WHIP

Coffey possesses the type of durability that will surely appeal to a Twins club that watched its pitchers drop like flies last year. He's appeared in 69 or more games in each of the past three years, and has made 57-plus appearances in all but one of his seven big-league seasons. He owns a 4.08 career ERA and has never been a truly dominant pitcher, but figures to be a great value if he lands in the range of the one-year, $2.1 million contract that the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook predicted.

Dan Wheeler
Age: 34 | 2011 Stats: 49.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 39 K / 8 BB, 1.11 WHIP

Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported last week that Wheeler's agent tried reaching out to the Twins but got no response since the front office was shut down for the holidays. Hopefully Ryan returned that call as soon as he got back into the office this week, because Wheeler is a nice fit. His 4.38 ERA last year may appear mediocre, but his peripherals were very strong and he posted a 3.24 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in the three seasons prior. For his career, Wheeler has held right-handed hitters to a .636 OPS.

Scott Linebrink
Age: 35 | 2011 Stats: 54.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 42 K / 21 BB, 1.45 WHIP

Like Coffey, Linebrink's main appeal is his durability. He's appeared in 50 or more games in every season since 2004. Even at age 35, his fastball still registers in the mid-90s and he's averaged at least seven strikeouts per nine innings in each of the past four years. His occasional proneness to the long ball could be downplayed at Target Field.

Chad Qualls
Age: 33 | 2011 Stats: 74.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 43 K / 20 BB, 1.25 WHIP

When looking at Qualls' track record, the one word that comes to mind is "consistency." With the exception of a clunker season in 2010, his ERA has been between 2.81 and 3.76 in each of his eight MLB campaigns. Qualls has been a workhorse in the Matt Guerrier mold, ranking among the National League's top ten most oft-used relievers in five different seasons.

Michael Wuertz
Age: 33 | 2011 Stats: 33.2 IP, 6.68 ERA, 32 K / 26 BB, 1.87 WHIP

Wuertz will likely come cheaper than any other hurler on this list, because he's coming off a tumultuous 2011 campaign and hasn't thrown more than 40 innings since 2009. In that 2009 season, though, he was truly spectacular, posting a 2.63 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while notching 102 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings. At the right price, it might be worth gambling on the chance that Wuertz can once again harness his devastating slider, but he probably shouldn't be the sole remaining bullpen addition.

Marquis for Slowey an Unexciting Swap

2011-12-22T17:29:00.001-06:00

The Twins rounded out their rotation today, signing free agent right-hander Jason Marquis to a one-year, $3 million deal. Since Marquis essentially replaces Kevin Slowey, who was traded to the Rockies a few weeks ago and would have made about the same amount next season through arbitration, it seems appropriate to compare the two based on what they're likely to provide in 2012.

Slowey was disastrous this past season, but Marquis' 2010 campaign was almost equally catastrophic, as he posted a 6.60 ERA and 1.71 WHIP while being limited to 58 2/3 innings by injuries. He rebounded this year, putting up a mediocre 4.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while logging 132 innings over 23 starts between Washington and Arizona. That seems like a fair baseline expectation going forward.

Their career numbers aren't terribly different. Marquis' ERA in the majors sits at 4.55, Slowey 4.66. Both have been extremely hittable. Slowey owns the superior WHIP (1.29 to 1.43), thanks largely to a lower walk rate (1.4 BB/9 to 3.5), and he also boasts the higher strikeout rate (6.7 K/9 to 5.2).

Opting for a guy who misses fewer bats is disappointing in light of the strikeout shortage that I've written about a couple times this week. However, Marquis offsets his lack of whiffs with an elite ground ball rate, which stands in stark contrast to Slowey's extreme fly ball tendencies. Only six pitchers in the majors finished with a higher grounder rate than Marquis' 55.1 percent in 2011.

If he continues to put the ball in play and induce tons of grounders, Marquis will only be as good as the infielders behind him, so the gamble that the Twins took on Jamey Carroll holding up as a full-time shortstop at age 38 will be magnified.

If you asked me which guy I'd rather have on a one-year deal for $3 million next year, I'd probably opt for Slowey, if only because he's six years younger and offers greater upside. The difference isn't huge, though, and if Slowey is really the clubhouse headache he's been made out to be, this can be considered a justifiable swap at the bottom of the rotation.

Unfortunately, it does nothing to augment the top of the rotation, which will leave plenty of pressure on Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano to carry the load. Fans who were hoping for a serious upgrade to the starting corps aren't getting one here.

Options for the Rotation

2011-12-21T00:00:00.002-06:00

On Monday, I wrote about the Twins' search for pitching help, pointing out that an inability to miss bats was a huge weakness for the staff in 2011 -- one which Terry Ryan should seek to remedy.

It's not realistic to expect the Twins to add a dominant strikeout machine to the mix, because there really aren't any available in free agency and acquiring one through trade would prove too costly.

But that doesn't mean they need to settle for someone like Jeff Francis or Jon Garland, who would qualify as the exact opposite of a "strikeout machine." Between Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak and Terry Doyle, the Twins have plenty of rotation candidates who can take the mound, throw the ball over the plate and let opposing hitters put it in play.

If they want to beef up their rotation rather than simply crowding it with more of the same, they'll need to identify at least one arm that breaks the pitch-to-contact mold. Here are a few available options that intrigue me:

Edwin Jackson

Jackson is a power arm in the sense that he throws hard, with a fastball that averages almost 95 mph and a slider in the upper 80s, but his results have never matched his high-velocity stuff. This past season, Jackson notched 148 strikeouts in 199 2/3 innings -- good for a 6.7 K/9 rate that matches his career mark and is roughly average.

With that being said, an average strikeout rate would stand out among Minnesota's crop of starters, and the 28-year-old has averaged 200 innings over the past four seasons. He's the cream of the remaining FA crop, but may elude the Twins' price range unless they're willing to push closer to $110 million.

Rich Harden

I mentioned Harden in Monday's post as a prime example of a high-risk, high-reward arm that could fit into a ~$100 million budget. He's got an electric arm, and this year with the A's was able to tally 91 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings, but injuries have been a constant issue for the right-hander. He signed with Oakland last winter to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives; there would be plenty of wisdom in offering a similar contract this year.

Harden is still only 30 years old, and if he can find a way to stay healthy he's got huge upside, especially in Target Field. If he'd be willing, a switch to the bullpen is an option that might aid his durability, and would solve the club's need for a hard-throwing right-hander in the late innings.

Javier Vazquez

While playing for the Marlins this past season, Vazquez made it sound like he was dead-set on retiring at the end of the year. By November, he appeared to have softened his stance, telling Ken Rosenthal that he was "50-50" on playing again in 2012.

Luring the 35-year-old righty back for another year might be a tall task, especially in Minnesota as Rosenthal noted that Vazquez had a strong preference to remain on the East Coast if he hung around. If the Twins could make it happen, though, there's tons of appeal in a guy who has averaged 8 K/9 over the course of this career and turned in a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 192 2/3 innings with Florida in 2011.

Hiroki Kuroda

It's not clear whether Kuroda intends to play in the majors next year or return to Japan. There's been little buzz surrounding the free agent right-hander, and the Diamondbacks reportedly had an offer to him on the table for over 10 days before moving on and signing Jason Kubel earlier this week.

Kuroda has been consistently effective over his four-year major league career, accumulating a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In 2011, he set career bests with a 3.07 ERA in 202 innings. He also averaged over seven strikeouts per nine frames for a second straight year. He'll turn 37 in February, but if he's willing to sign a one-year deal, Kuroda would be a good addition at almost any price.

Jon Niese

Unlike the four hurlers mentioned above, Niese is not a free agent. There have been rumblings that the Mets could make him available in a trade, though, and if that's the case, the Twins would be wise to make a push.

Niese is 25, and 2012 will be his first year of arbitration eligibility. Although his 4.39 career ERA appears rather mediocre on the surface, Niese is a left-hander who can command the strike zone, miss bats and induce ground balls. Given that the Twins are in a state of flux with their roster, I'm against the notion of trading valuable assets for short-term help, but Niese could be a long-term building block and would justify the cost as long as it's not exorbitant.

More of the Same

2011-12-19T00:23:00.000-06:00

Twins pitchers struck out a total of 940 hitters in 2011. That was the fewest of any team in the majors by a margin of 84 (Cleveland finished with 1,024) -- the biggest gap between any other two teams was 33.

Yes, the Twins were the least prolific strikeout team in baseball this year, and it wasn't remotely close. The whiff total was the franchise's lowest since 1999, which meant a whole lot of balls being put into play by opposing hitters. A contact-heavy staff, in conjunction with truly shoddy defense, led to horrible results as the Twins allowed more runs and hits than all but one team.

The club's fielding is bound to improve in 2012, but a sky-high contact rate will continue to be an issue if not addressed. Unfortunately, if reports are to be believed, the Twins don't seem to recognize it as a problem.

With Jason Kubel likely to land elsewhere this week, Joe Christensen reports that the team is focused on adding pitching. However, as Christensen notes, three names that have been connected to the Twins in rumors are Jeff Francis, Joel Pineiro and Jon Garland.

Francis is a control guy coming off a season in which he logged 183 innings, which would have ranked second on the Twins. However, he notched only 91 strikeouts, good for a paltry 4.5 K/9 rate.

Pineiro was very good in 2009 and 2010 before struggling to a 5.13 ERA in 2011, and at 33 he's a decent bet to rebound. But he's posted a K/9 figure above 5 only once in the past four seasons and this year finished at 3.8. Yuck.

Garland is a veteran with a history as a workhorse (he piled up 190-plus innings every year from 2002 to 2010) but his career K/9 rate is 4.9.

The Twins are working on a limited budget and if they're looking for guys who are good bets to throw a bunch of innings, they're basically limited to these low-upside, fringe-stuff types.

If they're willing to take a risk, though, a guy like Rich Harden could probably be had at a reasonable price, and if he can find a way to stay healthy he would add a very different dynamic to a roster filled with light-throwing hurlers in the pitch-to-contact mold.

It's not that pitchers can't succeed without tons of strikeouts, but a staff devoid of any power arms isn't a good bet to garner effective results, especially against the league's better lineups. Within his limited resources, Terry Ryan should be seeking to fundamentally change a pitching corps that failed miserably this season.

Francis, Pineiro and Garland are just more of the same, and at best lateral steps from the likes of Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing.

Cuddyer and Priorities

2011-12-16T00:14:00.003-06:00

The Twins made their signing of Josh Willingham official yesterday, finalizing a three-year, $21 million deal with the veteran outfielder.

The move rules out a return to Minnesota for long-time franchise staple Michael Cuddyer, who'd been viewed as an alternative option to fill the same need.

Or does it?

While the Twins' interest in Willingham and Cuddyer had largely been framed as an either/or scenario over the first couple months of the offseason, there's been growing speculation that the club may consider bringing Cuddyer back even with Willingham locked in.

This strikes me as bizarre. It's not hard to see the appeal in a lineup that includes both bats, but the Twins are working with limited resources -- Terry Ryan would have to stretch the budget past ownership's desired target of $100 million to bring Cuddyer back -- and they haven't yet begun to address their flimsy pitching corps.

In fact, all the team has really done so far is subtract from a staff that finished second-to-last in the majors in ERA. It's tough to see how signing Cuddyer would leave much flexibility to add anything beyond the types of marginal minor-league arms they've already brought into the mix.

Not only would signing Cuddyer show a lopsided emphasis on offense versus pitching, it would also signal that the front office is focusing far too much on the present versus the future. It's great that Ryan and Co. are intent on righting the ship in short order, but they need to be rebuilding with an eye toward the organization's long-term health as well. Forfeiting a pair of high draft picks while committing $45 million to a pair of 33-year-old corner outfielders seems extremely short-sighted.

There's an inherent risk in making multi-year commitments to players that are aging into their mid-30s. Fortunately, that risk is mitigated in Willingham's case because $7 million annually is very reasonable for a player of his pedigree, which is why this deal has to be looked at as a slam dunk success for the front office.

By signing Cuddyer in addition to Willingham though, the Twins would be doubling their risk. Having both outfielders aboard would certainly strengthen the lineup in the short term, but the long-term ramifications are troubling and if the front office is willing to cough up an additional $24 million for a Cuddyer contract, it sure seems like that money could be put to better use on pitching.

[UPDATE: Such fears can be put to rest. Cuddyer signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract with the Rockies today.]

Three-Bagger: Outfield, Hoey & Mijares

2011-12-13T15:24:00.000-06:00

* With their holes at shortstop and catcher addressed early on, the Twins' top remaining priority (outside of the eminent need for more pitching) is signing an outfielder. Presently, they're sort of in limbo with this task and have been for over a week.

It has been widely reported that the Twins have an offer out to Michael Cuddyer -- thought to be around three years and $24 million -- and view Josh Willingham as their top backup option should Cuddyer choose to sign elsewhere. The rumor mill has been fairly quiet with both players, but there are indications from both camps that decisions are coming within the next couple days.

Cuddyer and Willingham have similar profiles and both would fill the club's need for a righty-swinging outfielder with power that can slot between the lefties in the middle of the lineup. Willingham is probably a better hitter, but he's a little less versatile defensively. Assuming they require similar financial commitments, the two are essentially a push, and I think either one is likely to be a solid value at around $8 million per season.

What makes the decision a no-brainer, in my mind, is the fact that the Twins would attain two high draft picks next June by allowing the Type-A Cuddyer to sign elsewhere and bringing Willingham aboard. Those compensatory picks could go a long way toward restocking the farm system, and the Twins would hardly be hurting their competitive chances in the short-term, even though letting Cuddy walk would incense a certain segment of the fan base.

Will Terry Ryan follow his heart or his brain? It appears that we'll find out by the end of the week.

* The Twins waived Jim Hoey, the fire-balling right-hander received in the horribly misguided J.J. Hardy trade a year ago, and on Monday he was claimed by the Blue Jays. Now all the Twins have left to show for Hardy, who emerged as one of the league's better shortstops this season, is Brett Jacobson, a 25-year-old righty reliever that performed poorly in New Britain.

I'm not exactly a big Hoey fan, but I must confess I'm a little surprised and disappointed to see the Twins giving up on him so soon. His performance in the majors this season was clearly hideous, but he was reasonably decent in the minors, where his walk rate dropped for a third straight year, and the organization is short on guys who can hit 96 on the radar gun.

Ultimately, Hoey remains the same player he was when the Twins acquired him: a live arm with serious control issues that he will likely never fully overcome. Still, the front office liked him enough to target him a year ago, and now they're ditching him to open up a spot on the 40-man while preserving no-upside guys like Matt Maloney and Jeff Gray?

I don't get it.

* Another reliever that won't be with the Twins next year is Jose Mijares, whom the club chose to non-tender rather than retaining at a modest fee. At one point, Mijares was a very promising young southpaw, and I figured he'd be brought back considering how little he stands to make in arbitration. However, I certainly can't fault the team for cutting the cord.

Back in 2009, a 24-year-old rookie Mijares was a tremendous asset as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen, turning in a 2.34 ERA and 55-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 61 2/3 innings while holding lefty hitters to a .480 OPS. His performance has rapidly deteriorated in the two seasons since, though, and the Twins have been vocally frustrated by his work ethic.

This past season, Mijares was flat-out awful. His effectiveness against left-handed hitters was greatly diminished and against righties he was a huge liability with a ghastly 11-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Mijares will find work somewhere and could rebound as he's only 27, but the Twins are already plenty deep on lefty bullpen options between Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Phil Dumatrait.

Twins Take Terry Doyle in Rule 5

2011-12-09T00:00:00.001-06:00

By virtue of their horrible record this season, the Twins held the No. 2 pick in yesterday's Rule 5 draft. With a pitching staff that is very much in flux, especially after the departure of Kevin Slowey, this represented an opportunity for the club to add another arm to throw against the wall in 2012 and hope for the best.

The Twins did just that, selecting right-hander Terry Doyle from the White Sox. On the surface, Doyle owns an impressive minor-league resume; over four seasons, he's posted a 2.94 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 381-to-97 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 422 2/3 innings. He also excelled in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League this year, going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.66 WHIP over eight starts.

Those are great numbers, but they lose much of their luster when you consider his age. Doyle pitched well enough in Double-A this season, going 7-5 with a 3.24 ERA after being promoted in May, but it was his first time reaching that level and he was 25. He turned 26 in early November and still hasn't sniffed Triple-A.

Doyle's gaudy 8.1 K/9 rate in the minors is misleading, since it is heavily weighted by his dominant efforts in the lower levels. His strikeout rate has dropped precipitously as he's climbed the minor-league ladder thanks to an arsenal that could hardly be described as dominant.

Kevin Goldstein, a prospect guru for Baseball Prospectus, offered the following assessment to White Sox blogger JJ Stankevitz earlier this offseason:

Big, big dude. Classic frame, but not much stuff. Upper 80s fastball that scrapes 90-92 at times, better pitch is a mid-80s cutter with some bite. Average curveball and change. He succeeds by hitting his spots and working low in the zone, but there are plenty of questions, and understandably so, about his ability to miss the bats of more advanced hitters. Perfect world is probably middle relief.

Remind you of anyone? Because, to me, it sounds an awful lot like Nick Blackburn. The two share plenty of commonalities, ranging from their size (both are 6-foot-4 and around 230 lbs) to their middling stuff to their late arrival in the majors.

The best-case scenario is that Doyle develops into a Blackburn type -- a pitch-to-contact righty who peppers the edges of the strike zone with cutters and keeps the ball on the ground. One thing he's consistently done a great job of is limiting home runs, as he's allowed just 27 in 422 career innings.

Sure, it would have been nice for the Twins to take a flier on someone with higher upside, especially since they may very well have the luxury of allowing that player take his lumps in a lost season (a la Johan Santana in 2000), but there aren't many guys with big arms that are remotely close to the majors sitting outside of 40-man rosters.

Doyle has a chance to be useful next year as a long reliever and swing man, and as things currently stand he'd only be nudging a player like Anthony Swarzak or Scott Diamond off the 25-man roster.

An Ugly Break-Up

2011-12-08T00:00:00.001-06:00

On June 1, 2007, Kevin Slowey made his major-league debut for the Twins, pitching six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision against the Athletics. It looked to be the start of a long and fruitful career in Minnesota. As a polished, college-drafted pitcher who made up for his lack of pure stuff with precise control and a willingness to attack the strike zone, the right-hander fit right into the Twins' preferred mold.

Slowey shared many traits with Brad Radke, a local legend who had retired the previous offseason. Unfortunately, Slowey would prove to lack two qualities that endeared Radke to fans and coaches in Minnesota: durability and a willingness to put the organization before himself.

Ultimately, these two factors were likely the greatest contributors in the deterioration of a once promising relationship, which came to an end this week when the Twins traded Slowey to Colorado for a player to be named later.

Without question, 2011 was the most tumultuous season of Slowey's career. He quibbled with coaches over an assignment to the bullpen at the beginning of the year, dictated when he was willing to pitch, shuttled back and forth between the minors, spoke to reporters about a desire to be traded and then performed poorly when plugged into the big-league rotation out of absolute necessity.

In the end, Slowey logged only 59 1/3 innings for the Twins, finishing with an 0-8 record and 6.67 ERA. By the end of the season, his stock had bottomed out, making this yet another instance in which the Twins traded a talented player with his value at its absolute nadir.

Regardless of Slowey's attitude issues, that reflects poorly on the Twins. If he turned into a malcontent -- a label that has been attached to him by numerous reporters -- the club played its own part in pushing him to that point.

They left him off the postseason roster in 2010 after a 13-win season. They made a mockery of the "three-man competition" for the final two spots in the rotation this spring, forcing Slowey to prepare for the season as a starter despite the fact that it was clear they had him pegged for a bullpen job all along.

And while Slowey's attitude might have been unbearable, that doesn't really affect fans, who simply want to see a winning product. While removing an alleged clubhouse cancer might make life easier for teammates and reporters, it doesn't make the Twins a better team from a competitive standpoint.

Slowey is still only 27 years old, and for his major-league career he owns a stellar 4.70 K/BB ratio. That's better than the mark Radke retired with, and in fact it would rank among the best in the majors any given year.

Yes, Slowey's been extremely hittable at times, and homer-prone, and he's no one's idea of an ace-caliber pitcher. But the bottom line is that, if healthy, he's got the talent to be a very solid rotation staple in this league. And he'll be cheap next year. And the Twins are very, very short on depth in their starting rotation right now.

Perhaps the situation between the two sides had become untenable and a parting of ways was all but necessary. But it's a damn shame that it had to come to this point, and Slowey is not the only one deserving of blame, regardless of how he's been portrayed by certain irritated media members that have abandoned any semblance of objectivity in smearing his name on the way out (I'm looking at you, Jim Souhan).

I wish Slowey the best going forward. Smug prick or not, he's a gifted pitcher and could easily end up getting the last laugh in this sad, sad saga.

Capps Outrage is Excessive

2011-12-07T00:00:00.001-06:00

When it was officially announced on Monday that the Twins had reached agreement with Matt Capps on a one-year, $4.5M deal, the reaction among fans was about as venomous as I've ever seen. My Twitter timeline lit up with angry, expletive-laden tirades. Even some of the most mild-mannered fans were directing profane vitriol toward Terry Ryan. You'd think the Twins hired Jerry Sandusky to be their ninth-inning man.

To be honest, I'm having a hard time understanding why some fans are soaked with such heavy disdain for Capps. He's a generally effective closer who had a bad run of outings during a lost season. The right-hander was certainly tough to watch at times over the summer, but in the grand scheme, he was a minor contributor to the club's woes.

In my mind, Capps has three things working against him with the Target Field Faithful, two of which are completely out of his control:

1) He's not Wilson Ramos.

Capps' career with the Twins began on a sour note, as he was acquired in a lopsided trade that was widely panned at the time and only looks worse in hindsight. This past season, while Joe Mauer's future at catcher was being cast in doubt, fans were forced to watch Capps blow nine saves while the player he was traded for, Wilson Ramos, enjoyed a successful rookie campaign in Washington.

There's no doubt that the Twins would be in better shape right now had that trade never happened, but it did. At this point it should have no bearing on our assessment of Capps.

2) He's not Joe Nathan.

Ryan did such a phenomenal job in identifying and acquiring Nathan that it seems he actually set the bar way too high for himself. In six seasons with the Twins before suffering a torn elbow ligament, Nathan was never off. Even at his worst, he was still one of the league's most dominant and reliable relief arms. There's a reason why many regarded him as the best closer in the game outside of Mariano Rivera during that span.

Capps is certainly a far cry from that level of excellence, but this doesn't mean he's bad. Like the vast majority of relievers in the major leagues, he's susceptible to down years, and he had one in 2011. More often than not, though, he's been perfectly adequate as a late-inning bullpen weapon. At 28, he's still in the heart of his prime.

One other thing: In spite of all his struggles this year, Capps had the second-best qualified WHIP on the team behind Scott Baker, allowing fewer base runners on average than Glen Perkins.

3) He pitched through an injury this year.

In radio and print interviews, Twins' coaches and front-office personnel have clearly been going out of their way this offseason to convince people that Capps' struggles were largely the result of a right wrist injury he was pitching through.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, a close look at the numbers indicates that these claims are valid. At no point in Capps' career has he had nearly as much trouble striking people out; if he's healthy again in 2012 I suspect we'll see a return to normalcy in K-rate, which would almost surely result in improved numbers across the board.

I don't necessarily think Capps was doing the Twins any favors by pitching through his wrist tendinitis this year, but isn't it exactly the kind of thing most fans wanted to see more of? Sure, Capps was garbage when he took the mound for a period of time, but at least he was out there pitching.

On top of that, he took accountability for his failures, telling reporters "I'd boo me too" when the hometown fans turned against him.

To me, Capps' bum rap seems almost totally unwarranted. I don't love his new contract -- $4.5 million is on the very upper end of what I'd be willing to pay him and the club forfeited an extra draft pick by re-signing him -- but there's really no such thing as a bad one-year deal and locking him in at a reasonable enough rate shores up the back end of the bullpen while enabling Ryan to turn his attention elsewhere.

The One-Year Fallacy

2011-12-02T00:54:00.000-06:00

I think we can all agree that 2011 was a disastrous year for the Minnesota Twins. Their win total decreased by a whopping 31 games from the season before, as nearly everything that could go wrong did.

But it was one season, and it's in the past now. It's time to look forward. That goes for the players that suffered through disappointing campaigns as well as the folks who continue to hold it against them.

Lately, I'm seeing too many fans and bloggers basing their entire perceptions of certain players on this one horrible season, and that just seems completely misguided when the game of baseball, by nature, is so volatile on a year-to-year basis.

From one season to the next, we've seen Francisco Liriano turn from erratic mess to elite frontline starter and then back again. We've seen Delmon Young go from imposing middle-of-the-lineup slugger to utter disappointment. We've seen Glen Perkins go from being unable to get hitters out in Triple-A to blossoming as one of the best late-inning relievers in the American League.

Fortunes turn quickly in this game. Careers are marked by peaks and valleys. And there are two players in particular that I see a lot of people giving up on after dramatic drop-offs in 2011: Matt Capps and Kevin Slowey.

Fans have widely lamented the notion that Capps could return in the closer role for the Twins next year. On this week's edition of the excellent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, John Bonnes went so far as to say that he'd hate a Capps signing regardless of the terms.

There are certainly reasons not to want Capps back, not the least of which being that he'd yield a high draft pick by signing elsewhere. But his merits as a late-inning reliever should not be completely condemned based solely on his struggles over the summer, when he was dealing with a forearm strain.

I'm no huge Capps fan and clearly the Twins have overpaid dearly for his services up to this point. But one ugly, injury-plagued campaign in a season that was filled with them should not cause people to ignore his lengthy track record as an effective reliever. For his career, he owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and when he was healthy in 2010 he was a perfectly adequate ninth-inning man. There's little reason to believe he can't return to that level of productivity in 2012 if healthy, and at the right price this would make him a fine closing option for a team that doesn't necessarily expect to contend.

As for Slowey, the Twins have given indications that they plan on either non-tendering or trading the embattled righty. For the most part, the fan base seems to be fully on board with this course of action. It's true that he caused plenty of headaches this year and didn't record a single win even in his eight starts.

It's also true that Slowey won 35 games the previous three seasons (more than any Twins pitcher other than Scott Baker) and is a 27-year-old with a career 4.7 K/BB ratio who will cost only $3 million or so in 2012. With their shoddy rotation depth and limited funds, can the Twins afford to give up on such a player after one tumultuous year?

Those who follow the Twins, and especially those who are involved with the organization, have their own personal conceptions about these players – the inevitable result of prolonged up-close exposure. But when trying to make decisions for the betterment of the team, sometimes it's best to remove ourselves and make an objective assessment of how players like Capps and Slowey are likely to perform next year and beyond.

Contrary to popular belief, their future performances are not necessarily dictated by what happened in 2011. If that were universally the case, the Twins would have an impossibly tall task in front of them as they try to return to contention.

Opportunity Knocks Again

2011-11-30T00:56:00.000-06:00

In the summer of 2004, the Twins had won back-to-back division titles and were on their way to a third straight. Despite their success, they were gifted with an opportunity to reload for an extended run that June, when -- thanks to a mass exodus of high-profile free agents the previous winter -- they held five selections in the first round of the draft.

The players taken with those picks were shortstop Trevor Plouffe and pitchers Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox and Jay Rainville. Seven years later, only Perkins has proven himself as an impact player in the majors, and not until he was 28 years old.

It wasn't necessarily a disastrous group; I like Plouffe's chances of developing into a solid regular next year and Waldrop might get some tread. Still, to have received so little in the way of major-league contributions from five first-round picks up to this point has to be viewed as a disappointment. The man who oversaw that draft, Terry Ryan, will hope for better results when the club is placed in a similarly advantageous situation next June.

By virtue of losing more games than all but one team in 2011, the Twins will pick second in next year's draft. For reference, the second pick in that '04 draft was some guy named Justin Verlander.

Signability has tended to be an issue with the top-tier prospects reeled in at the front of the draft, but as Joe Christensen points out, the new CBA rules will do much to negate this issue. Thanks to a newly imposed cap on slot money, a player taken this high has little to gain by going unsigned and waiting a year.

That's not the only way the restructured CBA benefits the Twins. Matt Capps became a modified Type B free agent, meaning that arbitration need not be offered for a compensation pick to be issued should he land elsewhere. Michael Cuddyer remains a Type A free agent, so he would yield two high picks by signing with another team. But under the new rules, that team would not have to forfeit a pick. This increases the Twins' chances of landing an extra first-rounder, since those clubs with non-protected selections will now be more open to pursuing Cuddyer.

Throw in Jason Kubel, who like Capps would yield a supplemental pick as a Type B, and the Twins could potentially receive four additional picks in the first two rounds of next June's draft, on top of their No. 2 selection.

That's an even better situation than the one they fell into back in 2004. But, unlike that year, they're not currently in the middle of a successful run, so the stakes will be higher. With a farm system badly in need of reinforcements, the Twins will really need to hit a couple home runs.

Finding Nathan's Replacement

2011-11-23T00:10:00.000-06:00

The biggest question created by the departure of Joe Nathan is, obviously, who is going to fulfill his role as closer for the Twins.

This is an organization that has highly valued the ninth-inning job over the years, as evidenced by their willingness to hand Nathan a $47 million extension back in 2008, and later by their willingness to trade for and subsequently overpay established closer Matt Capps to be Nathan's fallback plan.

I would guess that the front office considers the closer position less of a priority at this point, given the likelihood that the team will not contend next year, but this is still not a decision I expect to be taken lightly. As I see it, there are four options for proceeding:

1) Promote Glen Perkins.

Perkins has certainly done plenty to earn consideration. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the American League this year, posting a 2.48 ERA with an excellent 65-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 2/3 innings as a setup man.

What the Twins have to ask themselves is whether they're comfortable removing the southpaw from a role in which he was so wildly effective. As the Twins' de facto bullpen ace for much of the season, Perkins was frequently called upon to get more than three outs, to dispatch lefty hitters (whom he held to a .589 OPS) and to work out of sticky situations.

Perkins would not be utilized as optimally in the closer role, where he'd generally be facing whatever batters happened to be due up in the ninth, with a clean slate and with a lead ranging anywhere from one to three runs. All of those tricky spots he worked out of last year would go to someone else.

If the Twins believe Perkins is capable of repeating what he did in 2011, I think they're better off leaving him where he's at.

2) Re-sign Matt Capps.

I know, I know. This is an unthinkable option. But really, it's not.

In an interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, pitching coach Rick Anderson called out Capps as a potential replacement, saying "I wouldn't give up on a guy like him so quick." Anderson pointed out that the right-hander's struggles this season were largely attributable to a forearm injury that he pitched through, and it's a fair point.

When he's been healthy, Capps has generally been a good enough reliever to adequately handle closing duties, and he has the kind of makeup and accountability that Twins coaches like to see. He showed signs of returning to normal late in the season season, and if he could be signed for significantly less than he earned in 2011, he wouldn't be the worst option as a late-inning counterpart to Perkins.

There's no question that the Twins would have a tough time selling this one to the fans, though.

3) Sign another free agent.

There are a number of closers out on the market, which is one reason the loss of Nathan is easier to bear. On the high end, you've got guys like Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero, all of whom the Twins are likely to pass on due to cost.

But then you've got a number of intriguing buy-low candidates. One example is Jonathan Broxton, the formerly dominant Dodgers closer who was limited to 12 innings this year by injury but is still only 27. Another example is Brad Lidge, the slider-flinging right-hander from Philly who pitched only 19 innings but turned in a 1.40 ERA with lots of strikeouts.

4) Acquire a replacement via trade.

The Twins have already flirted with this option, as they were reportedly close to a deal with the Nationals in July that would have brought Washington's young closer Drew Storen to Minnesota. Joe Christensen said a week ago that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of those talks being rekindled, but Ryan may also turn his attention to another closer that is apparently being made available: Andrew Bailey of the Athletics.

ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted this week that the odds of Bailey being traded "appear to be about 100 percent." Like Storen, he's a young right-handed reliever with dominant numbers and several years of team control remaining. Bailey is four years older than Storen and he experienced some elbow problems this spring, but those factors should make him easier to acquire.

Of course, another option is that the Twins follow the route they did with Nathan, identifying a quality setup man in another organization who hasn't yet been established as a full-time closer. The Rays pulled this off quite successfully with Rafael Soriano in 2010.

Whichever direction they choose to take, the Twins will be wise not to invest a huge amount of money into the closer position considering the various uncertainties that surround this club in the short term. With Terry Ryan at the helm, I feel a lot more confident about their ability to do so successfully than I did before.

Nathan Shuts the Door on Minnesota

2011-11-22T00:04:00.000-06:00

During his entire career with the Twins, Joe Nathan was a testament to Terry Ryan's genius. Francisco Liriano, and to a lesser extent Boof Bonser, have had their moments, but Nathan was the prize gem acquired in what is widely viewed as Ryan's greatest move as a general manager.

Over a span of six years, Nathan was one of the two or three best closers in the league. He was a lights-out force at the back end of the Twins' bullpen, never succumbing to the sporadic down years that plague most relief pitchers in the majors. And Ryan managed to net this elite arm in return for one year of A.J. Pierzynski.

Now, one of the players that defined Ryan's previous tenure as GM is the first to exit under his latest. Last night, Nathan signed a two-year deal, $14.5 million with the Rangers.

The parting of ways makes sense from both perspectives. At age 37, Nathan's top priority is understandably winning. The Twins' chances of being legitimate a World Series contender within the next two years are suspect at best, whereas the Rangers will be a favorite out of the gates after falling a game short of glory this season.

Meanwhile, while team president Dave St. Peter tweeted last night that the Twins were never given a chance to match the offer, it doesn't really make a difference. Two years and $14 million was around the maximum that they could have afforded to offer, and Nathan probably would have required more -- perhaps significantly more -- to re-up, given the realities being faced here.

With so many needs left to address, it wasn't in the the Twins' best interests to make that kind of substantial investment in an aging reliever with a surgically repaired arm, even if he is the franchise's all-time saves leader.

Brace yourself, because Nathan won't be the last Terry Ryan success story to walk away this offseason. Michael Cuddyer is almost surely gone -- another victim of financial constraints -- and Jason Kubel could easily follow.

Then, Ryan will face the tall task of rebuilding the solid foundation he constructed in the early-to-mid 2000s, with limited funds and little in the way of tradable assets. This figures to a multi-year project.

As such, can you blame Nathan for heading south?

Doumit is an Ideal Fit for Twins

2011-11-21T00:00:00.003-06:00

As I looked over the list of catchers that would be available this offseason, one name stood out to me as a great fit for the Twins, given their situation. Apparently the front office felt similarly, as they agreed to terms on a contract with that very player on Friday.

Ryan Doumit is a switch-hitter who can hold his own from both sides of the plate, having posted an OPS of .711 or higher every year he's been in the majors. He's still in his physical prime -- turning 31 in April. And, most importantly, he offers defensive flexibility that could prove invaluable for a Twins roster packed with question marks.

To be sure, Doumit carries his own question marks, which is why he was available on a one-year deal at a $3 million base. He's not considered a strong defensive catcher, leading me to wonder if he'll be viewed as the true backup to Joe Mauer or more of an emergency option.

The larger concerns relate to health. Doumit has been injured a lot over the course of his career and this season was limited to just 77 games. Obviously, the last thing the Twins need right now is another guy who's going to be perpetually nicked up, but it's important to note that he doesn't seem to have any ongoing ailments that will carry into 2012.

Doumit has been tagged with the dreaded "injury-prone" label, but I'll point out that Carl Pavano had that same label when the Twins acquired him and he hasn't missed a start in Minnesota. As another example, J.J. Hardy was jettisoned a year ago largely because he had such a hard time staying healthy, and this year he logged more plate appearances than all but two Twins players.

In other words, you're only injury-prone until you're not.

For their part, the Twins can work to protect Doumit's health by limiting his exposure behind the plate. As mentioned above, I wouldn't be surprised if he's really more of a third catcher, drawing only occasional starts while also spending time at first base, right field and DH. If Mauer goes down or has to switch positions, Doumit would likely step in as the regular, but short of that I suspect Ron Gardenhire will try and take advantage of Doumit's versatility.

And as long as he continues to hit like he has, he'll be a solid asset wherever he's playing. His career .271/.334/.442 hitting line is very similar to Michael Cuddyer's (.272/.343/.451), and Doumit swings well from both sides of the plate -- though he's shown considerably more pop from the left side. Overall, he has hit 67 home runs in 611 career games -- which would average to about 18 per 162-game season -- and while Target Field might sap some of that power he's still a good bet to out-slug most of his Twins teammates.

As long as he can stay healthy, Doumit figures to be a very useful piece. He's a respectable insurance plan at catcher and -- if Mauer is able to hold up -- a quality bat to plug in elsewhere. For the price, you could hardly ask for a better acquisition.

Between the Jamey Caroll and Doumit signings, Terry Ryan has now already addressed the two areas I called out as the club's top offseason priorities while putting only around $6 million toward the 2012 payroll, leaving him in good position as he turns his gaze to pitching and outfield help.

Pitching Through Pain

2011-11-16T00:41:00.001-06:00

That sound you heard on Monday? That was the collective groan from Twins fans everywhere around the time Joe Christensen posted a blog entry stating that the club has expressed interest in retaining embattled reliever Matt Capps.

The information comes from Capps' agent, Paul Kinzer, and his job is to create a market for his client so it wouldn't be surprising if he is overstating Terry Ryan's interest. Nevertheless, as Seth pointed out yesterday, the Twins wouldn't be crazy to bring Capps back -- in a reduced role and at a palatable price.

Kinzer told Christensen that he expects Capps to get a job closing somewhere, but given the number of established closers in free agency and the number of teams that actually need a ninth-inning guy, this seems like wishful thinking. More likely, Capps will have to settle for a setup job at about half the $7.15 million salary he earned this year. Therefore, I'm not irked by the notion that Ryan would consider reaching out.

I am, however, irked by another tidbit I came across. In pointing out the right-hander's struggles, Christensen mentions that "the Twins appreciated the way Capps kept taking the ball, even when he was dealing with some right wrist tendinitis."

Looking at Capps' 2011 season, it's not difficult to pinpoint the time frame where this ailment may have been affecting him. He's never been a huge strikeout artist, but from June 28th to August 18th he managed only three strikeouts while facing 84 batters. That's a 4 percent K-rate, which makes Nick Blackburn look like Nolan Ryan. During that span, opponents hit .320/.381/.480 against Capps, saddling him with a 5.79 ERA and three blown saves.

Outside of that mid-summer window, though, Capps struck out 16 percent of the batters he faced in 2011, which is right in line with his 18 percent career rate. In combination with his always excellent control, that kind of moderate strikeout proficiency can make Capps a successful late-inning reliever, and certainly has before.

Depending on the terms, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the Twins were to bring back Capps for another season. But they'll be a lot better off in 2012 if he and the rest of his teammates swallow their pride and sit out when they're dealing with inhibiting injuries.

Playing it Slow

2011-11-15T00:28:00.000-06:00

When reports arose late last week that the Twins had signed Jamey Carroll, many people were surprised to see a 37-year-old utility man receiving $7 million in guaranteed money. In the Offseason GM Handbook, we estimated a one-year, $1 million deal for the aging infielder.

That's how it tends to go with free agent signings made in November, though. Early in the offseason, teams aggressively pursue the players that are on their radar, and will often pay a premium in order to take them off the market quickly. We saw it again yesterday, with the announcement that the Dodgers signed second baseman Mark Ellis (who posted a meager .634 OPS as a 34-year-old this year) to a two-year contract worth over $8 million.

Fans get ornery when their favorite team takes a passive approach to the offseason, especially in the wake of a 99-loss campaign. However, this is generally a smart tactic. Two of the best free agent signings of the Bill Smith era were Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, and both those contracts were inked in the final weeks of the 09-10 offseason.

The Twins made their initial splash quickly this year, paying a considerable sum to lock up Carroll in spite of the fact that several seemingly similar infield options will probably end up signing for about half that price. I'm sure they have their reasons. But I expect things to slow down now as the Twins let the market play out, and there's nothing wrong with that.

Twins Sign Jamey Carroll to Man Short

2011-11-11T18:29:00.001-06:00

The Twins took their first step toward addressing a decimated infield today, signing free agent Jamey Carroll. According to Ken Rosenthal's sources, the plan is for Carroll to become the team's everyday shortstop.

My stance has been that the Twins' approach this offseason ought to involve finding competent stopgaps that could potentially aid a return to contention in 2012 if things break right, but won't break the bank or require significant long-term commitments. Carroll fits that bill about as well as Ramon Santiago or Nick Punto, who were the players I suggested in my blueprint last month.

Although he'll turn 38 in February, the righty-swinging Carroll has been a consistent producer, finishing with an on-base percentage of .355 or higher in each of the past four seasons, with steady if unspectacular defense in the middle infield. Twins shortstops turned in a .292 OBP while frequently batting in the two-hole this year, so the upgrade potential here is massive. Though he has no power to speak of (he hasn't hit a home run since August of 2009), Carroll is a disciplined hitter, a good base runner and last year he turned in the second-lowest swinging strike percentage in the majors. He's the quintessential piranha.

It's unclear how the veteran's range will play at shortstop as he inches toward his fourth decade of life, but he's committed only nine errors in 1,000 innings at the position for the Dodgers over the past two years, making it easy to recognize his appeal to Terry Ryan and the Twins after a gaffe-filled 2011.

I will say that I've got some quibbles with the contract. The Twins reportedly are guaranteeing Carroll between $6-7 million on a two-year deal; that seems quite excessive for a middling 37-year-old who has earned less than $12 million in his big-league career up to this point. He's bound to start declining sometime, perhaps as soon as 2012, and if that's the case his contract will prove considerably more burdensome than a cheap one-year pact with a similar option (such as Punto).

Here's another thing that should be noted about Carroll: While his .368 on-base percentage over the past two years is impressive, nearly half of his at-bats came in front of the pitcher. If you want an idea of how hitting eighth in an NL lineup can inflate an OBP, consider that Punto posted a career-high .388 mark this year while getting a big chunk of his at-bats there for the Cardinals.

Still, at the end of the day, $3.5 million is a reasonable price for a starting shortstop, and if the Twins felt compelled to spend a little extra in order to ensure they got their guy so they can move on to addressing other needs -- such as pitcher and catcher -- I can live with that.

I do hope that the club isn't done adding veteran depth to the infield. I also hope that the money saved by acquiring a low-cost starter at shortstop is put to good use elsewhere.

Venezuelan Horror Story

2011-11-11T01:14:00.000-06:00

One of the most interesting tidbits to come out of La Velle's live chat on Wednesday over at StarTribune.com was the revelation that the Twins asked Trevor Plouffe to play winter ball this year and Plouffe declined.

My initial reaction was one of puzzlement. On Twitter, I said that Plouffe's decision was "hard to understand." After all, 2012 is shaping up to be a make-or-break season for the young infielder, at least with this organization. He's 25, he's spent four years in Triple-A and he'll be out of options next season.

If Plouffe can't take advantage of the ample opportunity that will be laid in front of him, with multiple starting spots figuring to be up for grabs, the Twins could hardly be blamed for moving on. Why wouldn't the former first-round pick head south and sharpen his skills over the offseason, perhaps accruing valuable experience at some different positions?

Later on Wednesday night, things came into focus for me upon learning that former Twins catcher Wilson Ramos was abducted from his home in Venezuela, which is where the winter league takes place. Armed gunmen entered Ramos' home, snatched him away from his family and took him away in an SUV. Now, authorities are scrambling to track down the 24-year-old, who just completed a solid rookie campaign with the Nationals.

This is pretty horrifying stuff. It's not the first time a professional athlete has been targeted for ransom in what has become an increasingly dangerous climate in Venezuela. Given this grave situation, I feel silly for even questioning someone's decision to stay out of that region.

At this point, all we can do is hope and pray for Ramos' safe return, while feeling glad that Plouffe opted to stay home for the winter. I would imagine that many players will make the same choice going forward.

A Change in Direction

2011-11-09T00:00:00.039-06:00

If there's one aspect of Bill Smith's forgettable tenure as Twins general manager that will stick with me, it's the veil of secrecy that came attached to all of the organization's operations. Front office personnel are not typically the most candid folks -- understandably so -- but Smith would protect every little detail regarding the team's decision-making as if it were a matter of national security. His interviews were about as dull as his name.

As such, it is fitting that the oddly-timed announcement of Smith's dismissal from the GM position on Monday came with little explanation. In a hastily scheduled press conference, Jim Pohlad would cite only "philosophical differences" while refusing to delve into any particulars.

At this point all we know is that, about a month ago, Pohlad indicated that Smith's job was not in danger, bristling at the notion that the Twins would resort to such a "knee-jerk" reaction after one bad season. Yet, here in November, with free agency already underway, Smith has been suddenly fired and replaced by his predecessor, Terry Ryan.

Given the dearth of available information, any conclusions we draw are going to be largely speculative. However, considering that the Twins' brass met very recently to discuss offseason planning, it seems safe to say that Smith's ideas about how to proceed did not align with those of the ownership. The final portion of this statement from Pohlad leaves little doubt about that:

No one in the Twins' organization wants to win any more than Bill ... The Twins' goal is to get better in 2012 and beyond. Bill was equally motivated to achieve that goal, but we differed in the scope and approach that was required.

One could venture to guess that Smith adamantly pushed for a more long-term rebuilding process, which would entail punting the the 2012 season for all intents and purposes. Ownership, feeling the pressure of a disgruntled fan base hungry for meaningful steps aimed at short-term improvement, simply could not accept this approach and handed the reigns back to a man whose moves fueled a decade of success.

On the flip side, one could also surmise that Smith was unhappy with the team's proposed spending reduction (Ryan pegged $100 million as an estimate) and felt inhibited from taking the actions he needed to right the ship. Drastically improving a 99-loss club with only $18 million or so is a tall task, and another ugly season in 2012 would only further tarnish Smith's reputation. The Twins, noting Ryan's past proclivity for succeeding under financial restrictions, may have opted simply to go back to what's worked before.

Either scenario seems plausible, but -- as I said -- it's really all just speculation for now. What we know is that Smith's blunder-filled reign at the helm has come to a close, and Ryan is back in charge after a four-year hiatus. Those who have grown exasperated with the club's direction in recent years should think twice before exploding into a jubilant celebration, however.

I wrote a post back in late September yearning for an injection of fresh thinking into the Twins' front office power structure. While swapping Ryan for Smith qualifies as a major shake-up, it hardly guarantees a complete change in philosophy; in fact, it falls right in line with the good-ol-boy, promote-from-within strategy for filling vacancies that we've come to expect.

By all accounts, Ryan remained heavily involved in the team's decision-making during Smith's shaky tenure, and the only new figure who's been added to the front office mix through all this is Wayne Krivsky, who was a long-time fixture here before. Ryan is now the man in charge, but it's not clear that this will drastically alter the traditional and heavily scouting-based approach that has increasingly hurt the club in recent years.

That's not to say I disapprove. Far from it. It's become clear to most who follow this team that Ryan -- a trained scout -- has a better understanding of the game than Smith, and the Twins are clearly doing right by the fans, as evidenced by a Star Tribune poll that has a whopping 97 percent of readers approving of the decision.

Personally, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Terry Ryan and at the very least I'll enjoy reading his reliably insightful quotes rather than Smith's obnoxious administrative cliches. My dissatisfaction with Smith over the past year has been well documented and I'm all for a change in direction at the top, even if I wasn't necessarily clamoring for it. I'm not convinced that shuffling front office personnel will completely cure all of the misguided philosophies that have plagued this organization at times, but I can say this much:

The unexpected switch adds yet another level of intrigue to what was already shaping up as a pretty interesting offseason.

My Offseason Blueprint

2011-10-31T00:17:00.001-05:00

When the World Series came to an end on Friday night, the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook officially became available. If you haven't already ordered a copy, you can purchase and download one immediately from the TwinsCentric website.

One section of the bulky 136-page e-book is called "Offseason Blueprints," wherein all four TwinsCentric writers utilize the information in the Handbook to map out our own suggestions for the Twins' front office.

We're interested in seeing your ideas, too, so we're holding a contest. Using your Handbook, or whatever tools you like, we want you to craft a blueprint of your own -- one that fills the team's needs as you see them and stays within a reasonable budget. Submit it to us at twinscentric@gmail.com, and in a few weeks we'll toss the names of all participants into a hat and draw a random winner. If you're selected, we'll set you up with a free copy of our Twins Annual in the spring, and we'll also dissect your blueprint on the TwinsCentric blog.

To get you started and generate some discussion, here's my offseason blueprint from the Handbook:

Hedging Your Bets

The Twins face an extremely challenging paradox this offseason. On the one hand, they are coming off a 99-loss season and their roster is filled with holes, with the majority of their best prospects still several years off. On the other hand, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are in their physical prime and are owed a combined $37 million next year. If both those players return to form, you won’t want to waste the opportunity by fielding a poor roster that can’t support them. At the same time, you don’t want to put all your eggs in the 2012 basket because, realistically, it’s just not that likely that this injury-hampered group can make a 30-game swing in the standings. The best bet is to add cheap, low-risk short-term help while maintaining flexibility down the line. Here’s my attempt:

1) Let Michael Cuddyer walk.
Losing Cuddyer will be tough. Not only is his powerful right-handed bat sorely needed in the Twins’ lineup, he’s also a major asset in the clubhouse and community. Unfortunately, while he’d help a lot in 2012, his contract would likely become a burden in the later years as he ages into his mid-30s. It may be unpopular, but unless he’s willing to take a discount, letting Cuddyer walk and taking the draft picks is the smart call.

2) Re-sign free agent reliever Joe Nathan for two years, $14 million.
Nathan struggled out of the gates and finished with an unimpressive 4.84 ERA in 2011, but by the end of the year he looked very much like the dominant reliever we remember prior to Tommy John surgery. After coming off the disabled list in June, Nathan posted a 3.38 ERA and 28-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 29 1/3 innings. He’s a reliable and familiar closer.

3) Re-sign free agent outfielder Jason Kubel for three years, $21 million.
Kubel’s value is down after an injury-plagued campaign. Once a premier designated hitter, he’s been underwhelming in each of the past two years, so the opportunity is ripe to lock him up with an affordable multi-year deal if you believe the 2010/11 numbers don’t reflect his true offensive ability.

4) Offer arbitration to Alexi Casilla ($2.5M), Jose Mijares ($700K), Kevin Slowey ($3.3M), Glen Perkins ($1.8M) and Francisco Liriano ($6M).
Perkins and Casilla are essentially no-brainers, as they offer relatively inexpensive depth at positions of need. Bringing back Liriano and Slowey might be a somewhat difficult call following frustrating 2011 campaigns, but the Twins need all the rotation help they can get and both are candidates for bounce-back years.

5) Sign free agent catcher Ryan Doumit for two years, $9 million.
With Mauer’s status hanging in the balance, the Twins need to add depth at catcher, preferably in the form of a player who could play somewhat regularly and add offensive punch to the lineup. Doumit has spent his career as a part-time guy with the Pirates, never playing in more than 124 games, but his .271/.334/.442 career hitting line is very solid for a catcher and he’s only 30. He’s not considered a strong defensive backstop, but Drew Butera can be kept around to fill that role and Doumit can also fill in at first base and in right field.

6) Sign free agent starting pitcher Rich Harden for one year, $3 million plus incentives.
Bringing aboard one of the game’s most notoriously injury-prone starters may not sound appealing to Twins fans who watched almost the entire team spend chunks of 2011 on the disabled list, but this club needs high-upside arms and only the risky types like Harden will be affordable. The 29-year-old righty was limited to 82 2/3 innings and posted an ugly 5.12 ERA, but did manage to notch 91 strikeouts. He’s struggled mightily with the long ball over the past two seasons, but Target Field should help alleviate that. To help with his durability and maximize his stuff, it might be worth trying Harden in the bullpen if he’s willing.

7) Sign free agent infielders Nick Punto (one year, $750K) and Ramon Santiago (one year $1.5M).
Neither of these players is generally viewed as a starter, but both are sure-handed, versatile veterans that can at least hold their own at the plate. Let them compete for the starting shortstop job in spring training, with the loser holding down a utility job while Tsuyoshi Nishioka opens the season in the minors.

Summary: Ideally, you’d like to see Mauer and Morneau return to their previous roles and thrive. Given the circumstances, though, you can’t really plan around that best-case scenario. The above structure gives you some flexibility with those two. I went heavy on free agency additions because I felt the Twins had a lot of needs but don’t have much in the way of tradable assets on the big-league roster; dealing away prospects at this point is the wrong idea. The infield signings don’t add much offense but fans and coaches will welcome some steady veteran reinforcements after watching rookies kick grounders all over the place last year.

In the end, this might not be a terribly exciting blueprint but 2012 is shaping up as a transitional year, where the Twins can try out some different things on the big-league roster while letting their talented young prospects develop. It’s also not inconceivable that this group could compete in the AL Central if the rotation rebounds and the switch to less physically demanding roles rejuvenates the bats of Mauer and Morneau.

Can the Twins Contend in 2012?

2011-10-28T00:00:00.008-05:00

Twins fans are generally a hopeful bunch. This is, in large part, a byproduct of the team's recent success -- they've missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons only once in the past decade, and have surmounted unthinkable deficits in dramatic fashion on multiple occasions. Beyond that, the people of Minnesota seem predisposed to optimism and positivity, at least when compared to some of the more venomous large markets.

Yet, as we prepare for the offseason to officially get underway, I'm sensing a great deal of despondence from the fan base when it comes to the 2012 team. In fact, many of the same commenters who scolded me for being overly negative in my preseason assessment of the 2011 club are now writing off the Twins' 2012 chances, dismissing the notion that they should rebuild with an eye on contending next season.

That's understandable. After all, the Twins lost 99 games this season, and they're plagued by persisting injuries, and their farm system is mostly barren in the upper levels. Still, we've gone through this whole song and dance too many times before. You can't write this team off.

While I didn't expect the Twins to come out on top of the AL Central this year, I did expect them to be competitive. And halfway through the season, they were. It's easy to forget this since our freshest memories are from those horrid final two months, where the team completely tanked and went 13-41, but in late July -- despite their horrible start and innumerable setbacks -- the Twins were six games out of first place and on the fringe of contention.

The offseason is a long time. It's a four-month span where players can dedicate themselves to resting and/or strengthening. There are no guarantees when it comes to Joe Mauer's knees, Justin Morneau's head, Francisco Liriano's shoulder or Scott Baker's elbow. But these same players that were key contributors for a 94-win team just a year ago are all eligible to return next year, and not one of them is older than 30. With better health, there's no reason they can't be the driving force behind a drastic team-wide improvement.

Granted, the Tigers appear to be in good shape right now, riding high after a very successful season that resulted in a postseason berth. But the same could have been said for the Twins a year ago. Crazy things happen in baseball. Unless Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski gets the green light to go on a shopping spree this winter, the AL Central should remain eminently winnable next year.

The flaws of this Minnesota roster are obvious and in some cases glaring. But, while the core players may be riddled with question marks, it's still a highly talented and relatively young crop. While an "all-in" approach for 2012 would be silly, the idea that Bill Smith and Co. should proceed as if the season is already lost is almost equally silly.

So, what's the best way to build for the long-term while remaining viable in the short term? We can discuss that on Monday when I share my offseason blueprint. Until then, you can brush up over the weekend by ordering a copy of the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, which releases ~~today~~ tomorrow.

An Easy Option

2011-10-26T02:58:00.000-05:00

This offseason will carry plenty of difficult decisions for the Twins' front office, but they got one of the easier ones out of the way yesterday when they declined Joe Nathan's $12.5 million option for 2012.

The move officially consummates a contract that the closer originally inked prior to the 2008 campaign. Over the life of his four-year pact, Nathan pitched 181 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 206-to-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When healthy, he remained one of the league's best relievers, but he also missed the entire 2010 season due to injury and went through some rough patches while working his way back in 2011.

It's a cautionary tale for handing expensive multi-year contracts to aging relievers -- one the Twins will have to bear in mind as they contemplate their next step with Nathan. After collecting his $2 million buyout, he'll hit the free agent market and he should have no trouble finding suitors. Despite a 4.84 ERA this past season, Nathan finished strong and posted encouraging peripherals (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP).

Losing their longtime closer would be a tough blow for the Twins, who desperately need effective arms at the back end of their bullpen. Yet, there are two major factors working in their favor. One is Nathan's age; he'll turn 37 next month, which, in combination with his surgically repaired arm, could be seen as a red flag. Another is that the free agent market for relievers is considerably deep.

Joining Nathan in the free agent pool are names like Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, and Frank Francisco. All are hard-throwing righties with a history of closing, and all are younger than Nathan.

With this depth of competition, the Twins' all-time saves leader will probably have to settle for a two-year deal where the total money is close to the $12.5 million he would have made with his option.

So it's easy to see why the Twins bought out Nathan's 2012 season, even though it cost them a couple million. It's also easy to see why they should make a hard push to bring him back anyway.

Is Denard Span Trade Bait?

2011-10-24T00:00:00.006-05:00

Earlier this month, when pondering whether the Twins would be wise to pursue trades as a means of improving the roster this winter, I concluded that they lacked movable assets on the big-league roster. One player that I didn't mention, however, was Denard Span. Certainly, that seems to be a name worth discussing, considering that by some accounts the Twins were very close to dealing away the center fielder just three months ago.

In late July, when trade deadline speculation was at a frenzied high point, La Velle wrote a story for the Star Tribune carrying the headline, "Span not fazed by trade rumors." Yet, I've gotten the sense from some corners that the team's well publicized discussions involving Span created something of a rift between outfielder and organization. And while the aforementioned article relayed the outfielder's stated desire to remain in Minnesota, Span's follow-up quote seemed to carry a sour note:

"This is where I have been my whole career," he said. "But, at the same time, I'm the type of person who has a chip on the shoulder. If they want to trade me and think they can be a better team without me, then do what you have to do.

"I just want to play baseball. I'll go somewhere else and play baseball."

The Twins apparently feel that they have a viable replacement for Span in Ben Revere. And the deadline rumors may or may not have caused some friction. So, could Bill Smith revisit the idea of a Span trade during the hot stove season?

On the surface, there appears to be little reason for the front office to seriously consider such a move. Span had the second half of his season wrecked by a concussion, which remains an ongoing concern, and he has finished with a sub-.700 OPS in each of the last two campaigns.

At the same time, he's still only 27 and he's got a very team-friendly contract. Span is due only $3 million next year and remains under team control at a reasonable cost through 2014. He's a disciplined hitter, a speedy base-runner and a prolific defensive outfielder. There's a reason many Twins fans (including myself) were rankled by the Span-for-Storen rumors this past summer. He's a valuable player. If there are teams out there feeling confident that he'll be able to overcome the concussion symptoms and migraines, it's not unthinkable that Span could fetch some decent offers.

In that scenario, it'd be something worth thinking about. The outfield is one area where the Twins look to be flush with talent in the coming years, and there are a lot of needs elsewhere. In addition, one could argue that the Twins should embrace any opportunity to unload one of their various health question marks.

But doing so would mean letting Span, a fan favorite and long-term anchor at a crucial position, go somewhere else and play baseball. Should they be willing?

Experience Still Matters

2011-10-21T00:00:00.009-05:00

Before the 2011 season got underway, I expressed some shock that the Twins hadn't sought out veteran depth to back up their young starting infielders. The roster looked especially thin in the middle infield, where I noted that, since 2006, the two Opening Day starters had missed at least 97 games between them every year. The following paragraph summarized the problem:

Whether because of injury, poor performance or trade, the Twins have annually gotten far fewer games than expected from their season-opening keystone combos. Unless Casilla and Nishioka can miraculously shatter that trend, we should expect to see other players getting significant time in the middle infield this year.

As it turned out, Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka did not shatter that trend. Quite the contrary. Between injuries and sheer ineffectiveness, they missed more time than any other duo over the past six years, playing in only 165 games combined. This left a lot of middle-infield work in the hands of players like Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dinkelman and Luke Hughes; as you saw, the results were not pretty.

The Twins clearly underrated the importance of experienced depth in the infield last year, a mistake they are unlikely to repeat. After sitting through a season marred by booted grounders, errant throws, missed relays and plain old lousy fundamentals, Ron Gardenhire has undoubtedly stated his desire for the front office to shore up this unit.

So, what's out there? Among the free agent crop, some names that pop out at me are Ramon Santiago, Cesar Izturis, John McDonald, Edgar Renteria, Nick Punto and Jamey Carroll.

I realize that none of these options are all that enthralling. They're not high-impact, premium names and in some cases they shouldn't be viewed as starting candidates. But these are veterans who have been around the block, and since the Twins seem unlikely to break the bank for a player like Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, they are the types of infielders I expect to see targeted in the coming months.

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Three-Bagger: Rosario, Kubeddyer & The Handbook

2011-10-19T00:00:00.000-05:00

* La Velle posted an update on his blog yesterday that is definitely worth reading. It includes notes on various players and prospects. The most interesting tidbit, from my perspective, was that the Twins are trying minor-league outfielder Eddie Rosario at second base in instructional league, and plan to carry the experiment over to spring training.

Rosario, who turned 20 last month, has played the outfield exclusively in his minor-league career, which thus far has spanned only 118 games. He had a breakout season in the Appalachian Rookie League this year, batting .337/.397/.670 with 21 home runs and 60 RBI in only 67 games.

Between Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia and perhaps Miguel Sano, the Twins are overloaded with talented young outfielders that have a chance to help them in the coming years. Rosario's bat is certainly looking legit after he led the Appy League in homers. If the Twins can successfully shift him from an area of organizational strength to an area of extreme weakness (middle infield), it'd be a huge win.

Rosario has played only one full professional season, so a transition to the infield could be easier than it would be for, say, Ben Revere. La Velle noted that the Puerto Rican prospect was "all for" trying second base, and that front office execs Deron Johnson and Mike Radcliff both said Rosario "looked pretty good there during instructional league."

* The same article wonders whether the Twins can afford to bring back both of their long-tenured free agent outfielders this offseason. Jason Kubel has been with the organization for 11 years and Michael Cuddyer for 14 years, so these are decisions that will be taken very seriously.

There are a lot of good arguments for bringing Cuddyer back, and I'd guess that if it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins are leaning heavily in that direction. However, from a pure baseball standpoint, Kubel sure looks like the better bet to provide good value for the money over the life of a new contract.

After posting an .805 OPS in 2008 and a .907 OPS in 2009, Kubel is coming off a pair of down years where injuries have been an issue. This, combined with his defensive deficiencies and platoon split (which softened this year), will keep him from commanding a king's ransom on the open market. However, even with his reduced productivity over the last two years, his core numbers (.756 OPS, 33 HR, 150 RBI) are very similar to Cuddyer's (.777 OPS, 34 HR, 151 RBI).

Yes, Kubel is another lefty bat and he doesn't offer the same flexibility or leadership that Cuddyer does. But he's also three years younger and he's going to be a whole lot cheaper. It will be interesting to see how those factors weigh on the Twins.

* I'm pleased to finally announce that this year's edition of the TwinsCentric GM Handbook is now available for pre-order. If you lock up your copy now, you'll get a nice discount at 5.99 -- down from the official price of 9.99 -- and you won't have to wait long for your copy, as we'll be dropping the e-book PDF file in your virtual mailbox as soon as the World Series is finished. You can click on the image below to secure yours:

As always, the Handbook puts you in the shoes of the Twins GM and provides all the information you'll need to navigate the offseason and renovate the roster. We've got full run-downs of the free agent market, trade targets, arbitration eligibles, 40-man roster decisions and more, all packed with insight and advice from your TwinsCentric guides.

The GM Handbook has become our flagship product, and I hope that everyone who's interested in a comprehensive preview of this hugely important offseason will pick up a copy. Thanks, as always, for the support.

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Incremental Upgrades

2011-10-17T00:00:00.002-05:00

The Twins got their offseason roster renovations underway last week by outrighting Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Rene Rivera and Anthony Slama. This created four openings on the 40-man roster, though two of those spots are now filled by Nick Blackburn and Alexi Casilla, who were reinstated from the 60-day disabled list.

Repko and Tolbert were both set to be arbitration eligible this offseason, so this decision confirms what many already believed: that the Twins had no interest in employing those players next year at more than the league minimum.

Repko was a fifth outfielder and Tolbert was a utility infielder. Neither held a particularly significant role for the club. Still, both were exceptionally awful hitters in 2011, even by the low standards that accompanied their titles. Among all MLB players who made 200 or more plate appearances, Tolbert's .518 OPS was sixth-worst. Meanwhile, Repko's .555 mark fell nearly 100 points below his already poor career mark.

Replacing these two with more competent options would qualify as "incremental upgrades." It's a term I first used a couple weeks ago when talking about bringing back Nick Punto as a bench player, and you're likely to hear it often from me over the course of the offseason. Given their circumstances, the Twins shouldn't be looking to land one or two superstars; rather, they should be seeking to trim fat from the roster and build better depth across the board.

Unlike different casino games, dumping Repko and Tolbert in search of better options isn't much of a gamble. What do you think?

To Trade or Not to Trade?

2011-10-12T00:00:00.007-05:00

In November of 2009, Bill Smith set the tone for an extremely active offseason when he traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. It was a relatively major deal, and one that turned out well for the Twins, who got a quality -- though injury-shortened -- season from Hardy at shortstop while Denard Span took over in center field.

Of course, Smith's trades haven't always gone so smoothly. With his pattern of buying high and selling low, I can only hope he doesn't invest much money in the stock market. He's dealt away players like Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Wilson Ramos and Hardy only to watch them thrive elsewhere; meanwhile, acquisitions such as Delmon Young, Matt Capps, Jim Hoey and the entire Johan Santana package have largely fizzled in Minnesota.

But it's not just Smith's history of getting fleeced that has me believing the Twins would be wise to stay away from the trade market this offseason. Based on the current roster composition and state of the franchise, I don't see any players that the team both can and should be dealing away.

Among those with movable contracts, there are few on the major-league roster with meaningful trade value. It's not hard to see the Twins shopping Francisco Liriano this offseason, but they'd be getting rid of him with his value at a low point; as mentioned earlier, this is a habit Smith must get away from. The same goes for potential trade candidates like Kevin Slowey (who's probably as likely to get non-tendered as traded), Danny Valencia and Denard Span.

One could point to Carl Pavano and his $8 million salary as an expendable asset, but the veteran righty led the team in innings pitched by 60 frames this year. With so much ongoing health uncertainty in the rotation, it's tough to argue that Pavano is dispensable unless the return is very appealing.

Of course, the Twins could look to the minors for prospects to package in a trade, but should they really be doing that? While it's not unthinkable that the team could return to contention next year with a lot of good breaks, the front office should really be building with an eye toward 2013 and 2014, when their next wave of organizational talent will be nearing the majors. Trading away from that group for more immediate help simply wouldn't fit with the direction this organization should be going.

The Twins have a lot of needs to fill, but they lack areas of strength from which it would be prudent to trade. Unless Smith can get uncharacteristically creative and pull a rabbit from a hat, I'd prefer to see the club upgrade its roster almost exclusively through free agency.

That can prove a challenging and expensive proposition, but fortunately they'll have some funds to work with this winter.

What's Cuddyer Worth?

2011-10-07T00:00:00.003-05:00

The Twins have three long-time staples hitting the free agent market this offseason, making it the biggest organizational crossroad since 2007, when the contracts of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva expired.

The team had to let both those players go, while also trading Johan Santana, because in all three cases the contract demands were exorbitant. That's how it tends to go when 29 other teams are in the negotiating mix. With Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan all set to shop themselves this winter, some tough decisions lie ahead for the brain trust at Target Field.

Unlike 2007, the Twins are equipped financially to bring back all three players, although doing so might consume the bulk of their spending money. With a daunting variety of areas to address, as I outlined on Wednesday, it seems unlikely that all three players will be retained. I suspect that one or even two of these familiar faces will land elsewhere.

Of the three, Kubel is probably most expendable. Losing his reliable righty-mashing ability would sting, but the Twins -- ideally -- already have two middle-of-the-lineup left-handed bats on the roster and he's coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons. On the flip side, his injury hampered season might keep him affordable.

Nathan would be tougher to lose. The Twins are bereft of quality right-handed relief arms, and Matt Capps almost certainly won't be back. The team will clearly decline Nathan's $12.5 million option for next year but might be able to get him back on a two-year deal at the same price. If not, there will be quite a few alternatives on the market.

Cuddyer is the guy that the Twins really don't want to let get away. He's generally considered the clubhouse leader and is cherished by coaches, teammates and fans alike. He's the team's best outfield power bat, and his ability to play first has been invaluable with Justin Morneau's ongoing injury issues. If you remove Cuddyer from the roster, the best remaining right-handed bat might be… Danny Valencia? Trevor Plouffe? Not good.

Unfortunately, of the three players discussed here Cuddyer has the most leverage entering this offseason. He's coming off a very solid campaign in which he posted an .805 OPS with 20 home runs while making his first All-Star team. He might just be the second-best right-handed bat on the market behind Albert Pujols.

The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a two-year, $16 million extension during the season, but they had to know that wouldn't come close to getting it done. Given his high rank within the free agent class and his sterling reputation, Cuddyer should be able to get three or even four years at an average of $10 million or more.

At that point, the Twins need to look past their affinity for him and honestly assess how they think his game will age. Locking into a contract that assures a potentially declining 36-year-old big money down the line is not a situation the Twins need to get themselves into.

My guess? The Twins' best offer will be a three-year deal, at maybe a little over $30 million, with a team option for 2015. If Cuddyer won't budge on a guaranteed fourth year, I'd guess he'll be playing for another team next season.

Prioritizing Offseason Needs

2011-10-05T00:00:00.001-05:00

Yesterday I wrote that the depleted Twins could stand to upgrade their roster across the board during the offseason. It's probably not realistic to expect impact players to be added at every position, though, so today we'll prioritize the team's needs. Where are external additions mandatory, as opposed to optional luxuries? Let's assess the roster from top to bottom, starting with the most urgent area of need, and you can draw the line:

1. Shortstop

It could be argued that the shortstop is the most important player on the diamond. He is the captain of your infield, and the recipient of a very high volume of fielding chances -- often carrying a considerable degree of difficulty. The Twins were extremely weak at shortstop this season, with a .238/.292/.320 hitting line that came attached to very poor defense. It is simply unacceptable to enter the 2012 campaign with Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe as the sole options there.

2. Catcher

When healthy, Joe Mauer is obviously one of the league's elite catchers, but he wasn't healthy this year and as result the Twins got a .185 batting average from the position. Mauer's health is in flux and it's not at all clear he'll be able to crouch behind the plate for the majority of the team's games next season. To plan for that outcome, they absolutely must carry better backups than Drew Butera and Rene Rivera, who don't belong in the major leagues.

3. Relief Pitcher

The bullpen wasn't a crippling flaw in the team's 2011 roster composition only because the Twins so rarely had leads to protect. Make no mistake, this group was painfully bad. Minnesota relievers ranked dead last in the majors in ERA, opponents' batting average and K/BB ratio. Worse yet, Joe Nathan and Matt Capps are eligible for free agency, leaving Glen Perkins as the sole trustworthy holdover. The Twins might be able to cull a couple decent performers out of their collection of marginal relief arms, but they'll need to hit the trade market or free agency and add some reliable back-end relievers if they have eyes on contending in 2012.

4. Starting Pitcher

The Twins really need to supplement their rotation during the offseason, but the fact that this position ranks fourth tells you just how dire their needs are at the first three spots. The Twins do have some options on the existing roster, as they still control all the guys that they brought into this 2011 season when the rotation was largely considered a strength. The problem is that nearly every player at the position is afflicted by injury concerns, and the staff's pitch-to-contact tendencies don't play nearly as well with a sub par defense.

5. Outfield

Rather than breaking down the outfield position-by-position, we'll just say that the Twins could use some help out there in general, since it's not clear at this point how things are going to shake out. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are both eligible for free agency, and if neither returns we would be looking at a Ben Revere/Denard Span/Joe Benson (or possibly Trevor Plouffe?) starting alignment. While that would be a stout defensive group, they'd be dreadfully low on power and very questionable offensively overall. Only if the Twins are in full rebuilding mode could they responsibly move forward with such a plan.

6. First Base

Coaches have already openly talked about moving Justin Morneau to DH in order to preserve his health, a move that would leave some big shoes to fill at first. Chris Parmelee made a strong impression in September, but his pedestrian minor-league track record suggests that he would struggle if pressed into full-time duty. Outside of him, there just isn't anyone in the organization with enough bat to step in as the regular first baseman next year. Unless it's Mauer.

7. Second Base

Alexi Casilla figures to return next year and while his .252/.310/.337 career hitting line isn't particularly exciting, he did enough this year to justify another shot. He has always proven susceptible to prolonged slumps and has never reached the 100-game mark in a season, so adding some depth ought to be a focus unless the Twins feel comfortable with Luke Hughes or Brian Dinkelman as their principle insurance plans.

8. Designated Hitter

It's not clear whether Kubel will be back next year, but with the uncertainty surrounding Morneau and Mauer, it seems likely that at least one of them will put in significant time as the team's DH next year. If they're both able to stick in the field (a good problem to have), the Twins will be tasked with finding a no-glove guy who can hit a little bit, which seems like a relatively minor obstacle given the rest of their headaches.

9. Third Base

Ron Gardenhire might consider this a higher priority, since he wasn't too shy about voicing his frustration with Danny Valencia over the course of the summer. Still, the sophomore led the team in games played and his offensive drop-off was completely attributable to a BABIP plummet, as his peripherals remained largely intact. He's nothing special -- particularly when you account for his iffy glove -- but considering his price tag and health, Valencia should be safe.

The Great Challenge Begins

2011-10-04T11:41:00.000-05:00

Coming off a truly horrendous season of baseball, Minnesota's front office faces an unbelievably daunting task: retool a devastated roster on the fly and return a 99-loss club to contention.

It will be a steep uphill climb. As Phil Mackey noted earlier this week, no team has ever won their division a year after losing 98-plus games. One could certainly make a valid case that a short-term rebuilding period, with an eye toward competing in 2013 or 2014, would be appropriate. Given the circumstances, though, it's safe to say that's simply not going to happen.

Obviously we don't know what specific moves the Twins will make in the upcoming offseason, but it should be pretty easy to guess their general approach. The consistent message will be that they already have the pieces in place, and that getting players like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span healthy will be the biggest key to a rebound. That's a fair slant.

But the problems with this roster run deeper than non-production at the top level. In some areas they absolutely need to get better and in others they would like to get better; there's not one position on this team with enough health, strength and depth to instill much confidence.

The Twins finished the 2011 season ranked 28th in the majors in OPS, 25th in starting pitchers' ERA and dead last in bullpen ERA. They also need to get significantly better defensively, especially in the infield. In other words, there are a whole lot of cracks in the foundation, and with payroll likely to creep back down toward $100 million, the front office won't have a ton of cash available for renovations despite some salaries coming off the books.

I expect considerable roster turnover this winter but I wouldn't anticipate much in the way of blockbuster moves. It's more likely that the front office will look to fill holes and build depth through numerous relatively minor signings and trades while holding steady to the idea that their returning core players are going to dictate the club's fate in 2012.

All in all, not a bad strategy. But the quality of these moves will determine whether the front office can regain the trust of an embittered fan base in the wake of a poor offseason and an even worse campaign.

I'll be following the action here all winter, and I hope you'll all keep stopping by to provide your thoughts on things as they develop. We'll get started tomorrow by prioritizing the areas of need.

Parmelee's Powerful Debut

2011-09-29T00:00:00.019-05:00

The Twins' 2011 season has mercifully come to a close. It's difficult to draw positives from a final month in which the club went 6-20 and averaged only 3.7 runs per game, narrowly avoiding a 100-loss campaign by defeating the Royals in last night's finale. Yet there's one player who stands out as a genuine bright spot. That would be September call-up Chris Parmelee.

In a season filled with disappointing offensive performances and underwhelming rookie debuts, Parmelee's performance down the stretch stands out distinctly. Following a rather ordinary season in Double-A, he came up to hit .355/.443/.592 in 21 games for the Twins here in September.

At 23, Parmelee was the third-youngest player to don a Twins uniform this season, with Ben Revere and Joe Benson edging him by a few months. Given the uncertainty surrounding Justin Morneau's future outlook, Parmelee could have a chance to make an impact next season, and his sterling debut only increases the odds that he'll be viewed as a viable option at first base in 2012.

Let's take a look at the three contributing factors in Parmelee's impressive September triple-slash line:

Hitting for average: Parmelee racked up 27 hits in 76 at-bats for a stellar .355 batting average. Measured against his full professional body of work, this appears to be a major fluke. He's a .266 career hitter in the minors and has never posted a .300 average at any level. With that being said, Parmelee has cut down on his strikeouts over the past couple years and that's resulted in more hits, as you can see below:

Year	Strikeout Rate	Batting Average
2007	27%	.239
2008	29%	.239
2009	22%	.258
2010	15%	.285
2011	15%	.287

Parmelee carried over his improved contact rate to the big leagues in a limited sample, striking out only 13 times in 88 plate appearances (15 percent). He won't carry a .389 BABIP in the long-term, but if he can keep the whiffs in check there's no reason to think he can't hit in the .280-.290 range, which will lead to solid production assuming he remains strong in the next two areas.

Patience: While coming up through the Twins' system, he hasn't really posted the kind of gaudy numbers that you'd hope for from a first-round first baseman, but Parmelee has generally displayed a very sound plate approach. In 2,663 plate appearances in the minors, he's drawn 315 walks -- a 12 percent clip that nearly matches Joe Mauer's career walk rate in the majors.

His ability to utilize the free pass has helped Parmelee consistently put up respectable OBP figures even when his batting average has sagged. The fact that he's already demonstrated this skill in the majors, with 12 walks for a 14-percent rate, is extremely encouraging, especially when you consider how much fellow rooks Benson and Revere have struggled to coax walks against MLB pitching.

Power: This, to me, is the big wild card with Parmelee. Nothing about his performance with the Twins has surprised me more than the pop he's shown, ripping four homers and six doubles in his 76 at-bats for a .592 slugging percentage. This is a guy who went deep only 13 times in 610 plate appearances for New Britain this year, and who's slugged .436 in his minor-league career.

As a slow-footed first baseman, Parmelee will need to develop a strong power tool in order to establish himself as an asset. The early signs are extremely promising in this regard, but I'm skeptical as to whether he can sustain it in the long-term given his track record.

That will be the question with Parmelee. Can he shake an unspectacular minor-league history and prove that this quick adaptation to the bigs is legit? I don't think the Twins can responsibly move forward with him as their sole insurance policy behind Morneau at first base, but the sweet-swinging young lefty has definitely given the club something to think about by making a tremendous first impression.

TwinsCentric Cover Contest

2011-09-28T00:00:00.001-05:00

One of the reasons that posting has been so light around here lately is that I've been busy working on content for this year's edition of the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, which I've mentioned a few times recently. Since most fans have been looking ahead to the offseason for a couple months now, it should be just what the doctor ordered.

On that note, I'd like to announce a contest we're holding for readers with design skills. We want one of you folks to come up with a cover for this year's edition, so if you're interested, whip something up and send it to us at twinscentric@gmail.com. Entries are due by October 9th. Winner gets a free copy of the Handbook, credit on the cover and $50. Please note that if your design is selected, we may want to work with you to tweak a few things.

As a reference point, here's last year's cover:

On Free Agent Shortstops

2011-09-26T00:00:00.005-05:00

As they look ahead to next season, the Twins know that there are a lot of areas on the roster they should probably address.

Here is a resource, http://www.sportsmanagementcolleges.net, for those of you who want to get into the management side of sports.

The rotation is plagued by ongoing injury concerns. Joe Mauer's ability to remain at catcher is in question -- same with Justin Morneau and first base. The outfield is in a serious state of flux, with Denard Span battling concussion symptoms while Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel prepare to test free agency.

It'd be nice to add players at all these positions during the offseason, so as to build a foundation of depth that might prevent a similar disaster next season. There's one spot, however, where upgrading ought to be a mandate rather than a luxury. That position is shortstop.

Even if all the players mentioned above heal splendidly during the winter months -- which frankly would border on miraculous -- the Twins still won't have a player in the organization that they can feel comfortable about starting at one of the most important positions on the field. The Tsuyoshi Nishioka experiment is looking at this point like a complete bust, and while I believe Trevor Plouffe will figure things out eventually he's done himself no favors during this erratic late-season audition.

Without a doubt, the Twins are going to need to acquire someone to at least compete with Plouffe and Nishioka for a starting job next spring. Unfortunately, shortstop is always one of the toughest positions to address in free agency and that's certainly true this year. I sorted through the options in my research for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, and suffice to say that the crop drops off very sharply after Jose Reyes.

One could certainly make a case that the Twins, who will have some money available this offseason and could use an exciting shape-up, would be wise to make a run at Reyes. He's a premier player at his position and he's wrapping up an excellent campaign.

Unfortunately, there are two things about him that should be viewed by Twins fans as red flags. One is his injury history; he's missed 191 games over the last three years. The other is his lack of outstanding power. It's extremely tough to find shortstops with good pop, but the problem is that a Reyes contract would consume money that the Twins -- who have hit the third-fewest home runs in baseball this year -- might have otherwise used on re-signing Cuddyer or Kubel, or on acquiring another power bat.

The Twins are probably best served by looking to the trade market and trying to find a buy-low candidate, like the Orioles did last year with J.J. Hardy. Free agency offers more in terms of solid depth than legitimate starters. If depth is the goal, though, the Twins might consider turning their gaze to a familiar face.

Nick Punto has been limited to 59 games for the Cardinals this year because of injuries, but when he's played he's been productive, batting .258/.373/.379 with an excellent 20-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio while bringing plenty of value with the glove as usual. His suspect health is obviously a sticking point, but if he comes as cheap as he did for St. Louis last winter ($750K), what's the harm in bringing him aboard? You don't sign him and designate him as your starting shortstop, but he's very handy to have around and for all grumbling about him from Twins fans over the years, there's no question that the team missed him this season.

It may be that Punto is only an incremental upgrade over the likes of Matt Tolbert, but perhaps incremental upgrades are what the front office should be focusing on. Fans yearn for that Reyes-like offseason home run, but what this season revealed is that the club's second tier of players is in a state of disrepair. What happens with the top-level guys like Mauer, Morneau and Span will happen, but either way the rest of the roster needs to get better, with stronger depth across the board.

Adding a player like Punto would help accomplish that. As far as finding a starter at shortstop, it doesn't look like free agency is the answer.

A Baseball Man

2011-09-22T00:00:00.007-05:00

When Terry Ryan stepped down from his role as Twins' general manager four years ago, the baseball world was shocked. At the time, he was the second-most tenured GM in the majors, and it was clear from the league's reaction that he carried a lot respect around the game.

Kevin Towers, who was the GM of the Padres at that point, said of Ryan: "He's an honest man with a tremendous integrity, and a great evaluator. The best way I can put it is he's a baseball man."

Ryan's replacement, Bill Smith, carries a different set of attributes. Unlike Ryan, he's not a trained scout with a keen eye for talent. The same article linked above described Smith as being "well-versed in baseball rules" and "a stickler for details and finances."

An administrator, perhaps, but not a baseball man.

Smith's tenure as GM started out on a sour note, as he drew the unenviable tasks of allowing Torii Hunter to walk as a free agent and trading Johan Santana. The dread of making these unpopular, yet necessary, moves likely played a big part in Ryan's decision to resign.

This first offseason at the helm qualified as trial by fire for Smith, and so it was somewhat easy to excuse his lackluster returns in the Santana and Delmon Young deals. Yet, several years later Smith still appears overmatched. Too many moves over the last 18 months have backfired, and fans are fed up. With the baseball season coming to a close and a slate of difficult decisions approaching this winter, faith in the front office is at a low point.

I've seen many calls for Smith's dismissal, but I'm not sure this would effectively resolve the core issues afflicting the organization. It's naive to think that the GM is working in a silo when it comes to personnel decisions -- especially a finance guy like Smith who is clearly reliant on the folks around him to evaluate talent and identify targets.

This front office is plagued by stagnating philosophies. Barring a complete overhaul, that's not going to change. I've been as vocally critical of Smith's moves as anyone, but even I can't bring myself to believe that firing him is going to serve as a cure-all for this franchise's woes. More than anything, I don't think it's feasible to expect the Twins -- a fiercely loyal organization that promotes from within -- to replace Smith with someone who would take a meaningfully different approach.

What I would like to see, however, is a fresh face enlisted to fill a high-ranking decision-making role within the front office. A progressive thinker from outside the organization. A baseball man.

If the Twins are serious about turning the ship around, their shake-up must go beyond firing the Triple-A manager and pitching coach. This is a club in desperate need of new perspectives and outside-the-box solutions. Firing the general manager might not be a realistic solution, but putting a different voice in his ear than the ones he's been listening to recently could go a long way toward reversing the front office's growing trend of swings and misses.

Winding Down

2011-09-20T00:00:00.000-05:00

You've probably noticed that the posts on this blog have grown increasingly sporadic here in September. Indeed, with only seven posts in the books, this is shaping up to be the least active in-season month in the site's history.

Part of it is because I've been busy, but the bigger issue is that I just can't bring myself to write about this team anymore. Things are basically as bad as can be. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and several others have been shut down for the season, leaving behind a motley group of mostly minor leaguers that seems legitimately incapable of winning a baseball game.

Meanwhile, it appears that Jason Kubel has slipped out of the Type A free agency field while Michael Cuddyer is on the verge of doing so himself. This would deprive the Twins' of their full compensation should either (or both) depart.

This organization enters the offseason facing a gamut of hugely alarming health concerns, a bloated and poorly allotted payroll, and a minor-league system that is bereft of impact talent in the upper levels. Without some creativity and ingenuity from the front office (not to mention some desperately needed good fortune) in the coming winter, things aren't necessarily bound to get better.

Once the offseason has arrived, the posting schedule figures to ramp up here as we mull the decisions that lie ahead. There will be plenty of fodder to supplement the third annual Offseason GM Handbook. In the meantime, if there are any topics you're interested in reading about, please share in the comments section. Thanks as always for stopping by.

The Mauer Mystery Revisited

2011-09-15T00:00:00.004-05:00

Joe Christensen wrote a good piece for the Star Tribune earlier this week delving deeper into Joe Mauer's season-long injury woes.

Within the article, Justin Morneau suggests that the public backlash against Mauer might have been lessened if the team hadn't initially put out such a vague and mysterious diagnosis:

"Joe's not one to make excuses," Morneau said. "The reality is, he tried to come back too soon from knee surgery. Could [the Twins] have helped him out if they said he never built back his strength, instead of calling it bilateral leg weakness? I think it would have been a lot different if they said, he tried to come back too soon so he could help our team win."

Morneau is sticking up for his friend and teammate, and there may be some validity to what he's saying, but I think he's missing the point. As I recall, the Twins made it fairly clear at the time that Mauer's ailment related to his offseason surgery, and I believe most people understood that the catcher had rushed himself back before he was ready. That was evident in his paltry April numbers and his very quick trip to the disabled list.

This resource, www.sportsmedicineschools.org, has information for people who want to help injured players like this out and get them back into the game faster.

Regardless of how you want to label Mauer's leg issues, though, the explanations we continue to hear ring hollow. Granted, he faced an abbreviated recovery timetable during the offseason because he didn't undergo surgery until December. But that still gave him two months to prepare for spring training, and once he arrived in Fort Myers he spent several weeks rehabbing there as well.

Mauer started a total of 16 games at catcher between spring training and the regular season before being shut down and placed on the DL, where he'd remain for over two months. Then, from his June 17 return through the end of August, Mauer batted .302 but managed a measly .375 slugging percentage, notching only 14 doubles and one homer in 255 plate appearances. He continued to complain of leg weakness and rarely caught more than two or three games in a row.

Catching is of course very hard on the knees and Mauer undoubtedly set himself back by forcing an early return. But the surgery -- which Bill Smith stressed at the time was a "minor procedure" -- is now nine months old and between the offseason, spring training and his DL stint, Mauer has had no less than five months to work on rehabbing it. That's more time than he's spent playing. His persisting issues simply don't add up; a healthy 28-year-old body should not recover this slowly.

Christensen's article continues to downplay the notion that Mauer is being afflicted by anything more than post-surgery complications. A passing reference is made to the "frenzy of speculation" about a "more serious illness" that arose when the bilateral leg weakness diagnosis was first announced. However, I've heard from multiple (albeit secondhand) sources that the Twins are privately concerned that there are deeper issues in play.

Hopefully none of those whispers will turn out to have substance. Mauer has looked much better at the plate lately, with a .346/.433/.538 hitting line since August 20th. Of course, the caveat is that August 20th marks the last time he caught in back-to-back games. At no point this season has he shown that he's capable of producing offensively while regularly crouching behind the plate. Perhaps Mauer's many years of catching have simply taken their toll and his legs aren't equipped for it anymore.

Reporters are doing a good job of shedding more and more light on this troubling situation, but I still don't believe we know the full story. For the time being, Mauer's future as a catcher is very much in doubt, which means finding another competent option at the position should be a high-ranking priority for the front office in the upcoming offseason.

Three-Bagger: Perkins, Heroes & Rookie Whiffs

2011-09-12T00:00:00.005-05:00

* Glen Perkins surrendered the game-winning homer to Brandon Inge on Saturday night, continuing a troubling trend of poor performance for the lefty. He's has been charged with at least one earned run in nine of 16 appearances since the beginning of August.

It seems fair to speculate that Perkins may be wearing down here late in the season. He worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors and has never experienced this type of workload before.

Perkins had never pitched in more than 39 games in a prior season; Saturday's appearance was his 59th this year.

* Michael Cuddyer earned praise from several local scribes a couple weeks ago when he heroically asked into the lineup for a meaningless game after taking a pitch to the wrist the night before. Since the plunking, Cuddyer has gone 4-for-34 (.118) with 10 strikeouts, and now the wrist has been bothering him enough that he hasn't played in a week.

Meanwhile, Joe Mauer, who sat out to let a sore neck heal at the same time Cuddyer was playing through a debilitating wrist injury, is back in the lineup and producing. He even a caught a game in Detroit over the weekend -- his first time since August 20th.

Turns out resting might actually be the smart approach with certain injuries rather than toughing it out and playing hurt in order to satisfy some ridiculous tenet of machismo. Imagine that.

* In his first 19 major-league plate appearances, Joe Benson has three hits and seven strikeouts. I wrote last week that whiffs figure to be a major issue for the promising young outfielder.

Final 2011 Prospect Rundown

2011-09-09T01:30:00.000-05:00

The seasons for all of the Twins' minor-league affiliates have drawn a close, so this seems an appropriate time to take a final look at how the players I ranked as my top ten prospects in the organization fared here in 2011.

Much like with the big-league club, you'll find that this list is riddled with setbacks and major injuries. It seems no one in the organization can escape the voodoo hex that has befallen the Twins.

10. Carlos Gutierrez, RP
2011 Stats (AAA): 62.1 IP, 4.62 ERA, 57/31 K/BB, 1.46 WHIP

One thing is clear: the Twins have settled on Gutierrez's role. After making almost half of his appearances last year as a starter, the righty pitched exclusively in relief for the Red Wings. His strikeout rate of 8.2 K/9 was by far the highest of his career -- a promising sign for the sinker baller -- but his results were truly ugly after returning from an arm injury that cost him all of July, as he allowed 11 runs on 18 hits and six walks over 13 2/3 innings between August and September.

Having seen Gutierrez pitch live a few times, I'm definitely a believer in his talent and expect him to be an impact arm in the Twins' bullpen in the coming years.

9. Liam Hendriks, SP
2011 Stats (AA/AAA): 139.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 111/21 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP

Hendriks sneaked onto this list with a spectacular 2010 campaign and then backed it up here in 2011, assuring that he'll rise several slots next year. The Australian right-hander demolished Double-A, posting a 2.70 ERA and 81/18 K/BB ratio in 90 innings, before holding his own in Rochester and earning a September call-up to the big leagues.

Despite his dazzling numbers in Single-A and Double-A, the 22-year-old profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter in the majors, falling into the Twins' mold as a prolific strike-thrower with marginal stuff. With that being said, he's clearly established himself as the organization's top MLB-ready pitching prospect.

8. Angel Morales, OF
2011 Stats (A+): .264/.326/.388, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 17 R, 3/5 SB

Morales hurt his right elbow while playing ball in Puerto Rico last winter, and the injury kept him off the field for much of the 2011 campaign. At one point, it seemed likely that the outfielder would be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, but doctors elected instead for a minor surgery in June to remove bone chips.

He returned to the Miracle in late July and played in 33 games, posting the numbers you see above over 138 plate appearances. His strikeout rate rose to a career-high 26 percent, raising concern over what may be a crippling deficiency in his offensive game. All in all, this sadly looks like a lost year for Morales, who will probably open in Fort Myers once again in 2012.

The Twins need to add Morales to the 40-man roster this offseason in order to protect him from the Rule V draft. It will be interesting to see if they choose to take that step.

7. Alex Wimmers, SP
2011 Stats (A+): 40.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 39/22 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP

The Twins' first-round draft pick a year ago, Wimmers started his season on a depressing low note, walking all six batters he faced in his first start for the Miracle after dominating in a short stint at the same level a year ago. Twins fans groaned as they recalled the case of Shooter Hunt, who burst onto the scene after being drafted before completely losing the ability to throw strikes.

However, to his credit, Wimmers went to extended spring training, worked with his coaches and got back on track, returning to the Miracle in July and posting much better numbers the rest of the way while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. In July, August and September, the 22-year-old righty posted a 3.32 ERA and 39/16 K/BB ratio over 40 2/3 innings. He still struggled with walks from time to time so he's not out of the woods yet, but Wimmers is poised for a big season in 2012 if he can keep the control demons at bay.

6. David Bromberg, SP
2011 Stats (AA): 37 IP, 6.08 ERA, 23/15 K/BB, 1.75 WHIP

After a solid stint in Rochester to close out his 2010 campaign, Bromberg seemed ready to step up to the majors if the Twins needed help this season. Instead, he opened the season back in New Britain and was hit by a comebacker in early May that fractured his arm. He'd miss significant time and make only four more starts for the Rock Cats, turning in a 9.82 ERA and 12-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings while allowing a .406 batting average.

Bromberg, who turns 24 in a week, will enter next season with much to prove after a ruined 2011.

5. Joe Benson, OF
2011 Stats (AA): 285/.388/.495, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 69 R, 13/22 SB

Benson's season stands out as one of the true bright spots on this list. Although he spent most of his time at Double-A for a second consecutive year and continued to strike out at an alarming rate (109 times in 472 plate appearances), he raised his batting average by 30 points and his on-base percentage by 50. A year after blasting 27 homers between Fort Myers and New Britain, Benson went deep 16 times for the Rock Cats, including 11 in the second half.

He's very athletic and will almost certainly be a defensive asset, but Benson still has strides to make at the plate in order to become a true threat in the lineup.

4. Ben Revere, OF
2011 Stats (AAA): .303/.338/.364, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 15 R, 8/10 SB

After posting the pedestrian numbers shown above in 32 games for Rochester, Revere was called up to the Twins for good in mid-June and -- despite leaving much to be desired with his offensive performance -- he's been a mainstay in the lineup ever since. His game-changing speed and eye-popping defense seem to have ingratiated him with the coaching staff, putting him in position to claim a spot in next year's outfield.

He's been a drain this year with his .583 OPS, but if Revere can hit .300 he'll be a serviceable offensive player and a worthwhile starter. He hasn't shown that ability yet in Minnesota, but he's done it at every level of the minors. Plus. he has accumulated a lot of valuable major-league experience this year, and he's the same age as Benson and Chris Parmelee, who are just now getting their first taste.

3. Miguel Sano, 3B
2011 Stats (Adv Rk): .292/.352/.637, 20 HR, 59 RBI, 58 R, 5/9 SB

Sano posted those numbers in just 66 games. Projected to 162, that would work out to 49 home runs and 145 RBI. Granted, it's just rookie ball, but Sano is only 18 years old. He has his flaws, most notably in his plate discipline, but he appears to be the best power bat that has come through this organization in some time. Of course, he's still got a long way to go.

2. Aaron Hicks, OF
2011 Stats (A+): .242/.354/.368, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 79 R, 17/25 SB

He's a world class athlete, but so far on the field Hicks has only proven to be an enigma. While his ability to draw walks remains exciting (his 14.7 percent walk rate in Fort Myers this year would have led the Twins), his power still hasn't developed and he didn't exactly rake like you'd hope a 21-year-old top prospect in Single-A would. Hicks remains on track to reach Target Field in a few years, but his star is dimming with each unspectacular minor-league campaign.

1. Kyle Gibson, SP
2011 Stats (AAA): 95.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 91/27 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP

After dazzling Twins coaches during spring training, Gibson picked up where he left off in 2010, performing well out of the gates for Rochester. As the season progressed, though, Gibson increasingly had difficulty lasting deep into games. He was shut down due to elbow soreness in late July, diagnosed with a torn ligament in early August, and placed under the knife for Tommy John surgery earlier this week.

Gibson, who at one point was almost certainly being figured into the Twins' 2012 rotation, will now miss the entire season. He'll hope to return in 2013 while facing fewer tribulations than recent local hurlers who have undergone the procedure.

Tough break for the kid. And for the Twins.

The Financial Crunch

2011-09-08T00:00:00.002-05:00

Yesterday I searched for beams of light within this gloomy season. A quick spin through the comments section showed that the most controversial aspect of the column (aside from the very notion of injecting positivity into this wretched mess) was my suggestion that the Twins would face a "financial crunch" as they plan for next year.

Several commenters bristled at the notion that the Twins, in their third year at Target Field, could be up against budgetary constraints that might prevent them from improving in areas of weakness. Let's examine the claim a little further…

In early August, John Bonnes took a preliminary look at the team's 2012 payroll. He found that, with current locked-in obligations accounted for, we're looking at a $74 million base.

Even if you haven't taken online accounting classes, it's clear that's a lot of money.

That's about $50 million short of their 2011 payroll, so they'll seemingly have ample room to maneuver during the offseason, right?

Maybe. First, they'll have to make decisions on Francisco Liriano, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Liriano will be entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, while Cuddyer and Kubel will both be free agents.

Bringing back all three players would probably cost around $25 million next year. Letting one, two or all three walk is an option but would be tough to stomach, since each offers a trait that is in short supply for the Twins.

Liriano might be the organization's only pitcher outside of Scott Baker with the upside to effectively hold down a spot at the front end of the rotation next year, while Cuddyer and Kubel are the only players with a realistic shot at hitting 20-plus home runs (together they've combined for a third of the team's long balls this season).

The Twins are already hurting for strikeouts from their starting pitchers and home runs from their lineup. If they want to try and contend next year, they're going to either need to bring these three back or find players who can replace what they provide, which won't be cheap.

Then, there's the bullpen. It basically needs to be rebuilt from scratch, with Glen Perkins looking like the only reliable arm who will carry over from this season. Free agent relievers aren't cheap -- at least not the good ones. What's a fair allotment for a decent bullpen? Ten million? Fifteen million?

If you bring back Cuddyer, Kubel and Liriano at $25 million while putting a modest $10 million into the bullpen, you're looking at a $110 million payroll, which is close to where I expect them to land next year. That leaves little room for upgrades in the starting rotation, middle infield or catcher.

Which is why I said that the Twins would hugely benefit from being able to use Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe in starting roles. It would prevent the front office from having to go outside the organization to fill vacancies in the lineup left by Delmon Young and (hopefully) Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

As for the other holes and depth issues that have become appararent this year? Well, Bill Smith is going to need to get creative.

I'm only scratching the surface of a multitude of difficult decisions that will face the front office in the approaching offseason. You'll be able to get a much more comprehensive look at all these issues in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, which should be available shortly after the season concludes. Keep your eyes peeled.

Beams of Light

2011-09-07T00:50:00.000-05:00

It's been a season full of malady and sorrow for the Minnesota Twins, and last night's Triple-A lineup might have exemplified this more than ever. Plenty of time has been spent -- and will be spent -- going over all the things that went wrong and all the things that must be done to get this franchise back on track.

Today, I thought I'd take a break from the doom-and-gloom, and grasp for some positives within this pitiful season. Believe it or not, there are a few (and I do mean few) things we can look at for encouragement. They're listed below, as I see them. Feel free to add your own.

1. High draft pick in 2012.

This stands out as perhaps the most significant bonus to come out of the Twins' lousy performance this season. At present, only two teams in baseball have a worse record, which puts Minnesota in line for the third overall pick in next year's draft. If they continue to tank here in the final month, which seems likely based on where things are headed, that slot could continue to improve.

Between Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Sosa, Eddie Rosario and Adrian Salcedo, the organization's most intriguing minor-league talent rests in the lower levels. Next June the Twins will have the opportunity to add one of the top amateur players in the nation to that mix, so in three or four years we could be looking a truly exciting wave of youth at Target Field.

2. Experience for the kids.

Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere have accrued more at-bats than expected this year, and while both have experienced their share of growing pains, that's not necessarily such a bad thing.

The Twins will be in a financial crunch next season, so the ability to use players who are making the league minimum in starting roles would be hugely beneficial. It's not clear that either Plouffe or Revere are ready to be assets as starters yet, but they both will enter the offseason with a good idea of where they need to improve in order to get there.

3. Sense of urgency for the front office.

Since 2002, the Twins' three most successful seasons -- in terms of wins -- have been 2004, 2006 and 2010. Not coincidentally, the offseasons that followed have been the front office's three least active during that span. If there's one thing the Twins have shown over the years, it's that success makes them complacent.

As bad as things have gotten, Bill Smith and Co. won't have that luxury this winter. Fans will be hungry for a shake-up, and over the years the team has generally been willing to provide just that in the wake of a disappointing campaign.

After the the Twins missed the playoffs in 2005, Terry Ryan traded prospects for Luis Castillo, shoring up a longstanding hole at second base. After the club finished below .500 in 2007, Smith took over and made several big moves, including the Delmon Young and Johan Santana trades.

What will the front office have in store for us this winter? You can bet some significant moves will be coming. Let's just hope they do more good than the rest of Smith's tinkering over the past 12 months.

The Reinforcements

2011-09-06T00:33:00.003-05:00

Yesterday, the Twins collected one run on eight hits across 18 innings in a split double-header against the White Sox at Target Field. Things have turned uglier than ugly, and while help is on the way in the form of September call-ups, these new troops aren't exactly stud prospects worthy of palpable excitement.

This site, www.sportspsychologyprograms.org, could give you insight on what makes some players major-league ready.

Over the past several days, the Twins have promoted a handful of pitchers -- including Liam Hendriks, who will start tonight -- along with Matt Tolbert, Brian Dinkelman, Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson. The latter two would have to be considered the organization's top two position player prospects that are anywhere near major-league ready.

Parmelee, a former first-round pick, hit .287/.366/.435 in his second turn at Class-AA New Britain this season. Early in his career, the first baseman struggled to hit for average, batting .239 in two straight seasons at Beloit, but over the past couple years he's raised his hit rate while sacrificing his power, which was never overwhelming in the first place.

Given his struggles against left-handed pitchers since graduating to Double-A and his lack of speed, the best realistic projection for Parmelee is a poor man's Jason Kubel who can play first base along with the corner outfield spots. He doesn't seem to have the tools to become a big-league starter.

Benson, who I ranked as the organization's fifth-best prospect before the season, has put together a more impressive campaign in New Britain, batting .287/.389/.499 while blasting 16 homers and excelling defensively in center field.

The gaudy on-base percentage appears to be a big bonus, but one wonders how well Benson's penchant for getting hit by pitches -- he's been plunked 13 times -- will translate to the bigs.

It's going to be hard for him to keep his batting average afloat in the majors due to a strikeout rate that has teetered between 22 and 26 percent over the past few years. The hope is that his power can offset the inevitable low average, and 16 homers would be nice from a slick-gloved center fielder, but that figure represents a significant drop-off from his total of 27 last year, and it's worth noting that he'd never hit more than five in a pro season before 2010.

Like fellow young outfielders Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks, it appears at this point that Benson's best (or at least most reliable) asset might be his defense. That's troubling news for an organization that has become increasingly starved for offense.

Let's put the performances of Parmelee and Benson at age 23 in New Britain into perspective: When Revere toured the Eastern League as a 22-year-old last year, he hit .305/.371/.363. This year, with the Twins, he's hitting .251/.298/.288.

I think Revere has a solid future in front of him, and both Benson and Parmelee have a chance to be impact players at some point, but I doubt that point is near, and both have enough flaws that they can't be penciled into the club's plans yet. Maybe we'll know more in a month, though.

Mild Concussion Symptoms

2011-08-31T00:00:00.009-05:00

Four hundred and twenty days after taking a blow to the head in Toronto, Justin Morneau finds himself sidelined with "mild concussion symptoms."

This technically marks the first time since the end of last year that Morneau has missed regular-season time as a result of the brain injury that cut short his 2010 campaign.

But, in light of these recurring symptoms, one does wonder how much the first baseman's dismal performance this year can be attributed to the concussion's after-effects. It's been nearly 14 months since Morneau suffered the injury, yet he still barely resembles his old self on the field and can't be in a good place if he's asking out of the lineup.

I suppose one could call Morneau "soft," since that seems to be the popular treatment for wounded baseball stars around these parts. I personally doubt that he's very much enjoying the afflictions that continue to torment him, regardless of how much money he's making.

Morneau once built a reputation as one of the game's sturdiest and most durable sluggers, yet this year he's missed starts on separate occasions due to a sore wrist, a sore foot, a sore shoulder, the flu, a neck injury and now symptoms relating to a concussion that he sustained well over a year ago.

The guy has been frustrated this year. But can anyone blame him?

Playing Hurt

2011-08-29T00:00:00.000-05:00

It was bound to happen.

Joe Mauer's decision to ask out of the lineup with a sore neck last week on the same day that Michael Cuddyer asked in with a sore wrist unleashed a torrent of fury from the media, with Mauer being labeled "soft" -- either explicitly or implicitly -- by no less than three local scribes.

The crux of all three pieces linked above is that Mauer ought to set a tone for his teammates by forcing himself into the lineup and playing through pain. Apparently, there's some sort of unspoken honor code that is being violated by Mauer's lack of eagerness to play when he deems himself physically unable. One of the articles went so far as to suggest that the backstop would be fulfilling his duty as a leader by playing hurt and striking out three times.

Never mind that Mauer -- whose neck strain has only tacked onto leg problems that have bothered him all season and sapped his production -- hadn't sat out an entire game since coming off the disabled list in mid-June. And never mind that Cuddyer, who is cast against Mauer in all three articles as some sort of heroic iron man, missed nine games earlier this month after hurting his own neck during batting practice.

No, there's an axe to grind, because the highly paid and soft-spoken Mauer is an easy target for columnists who have run out of scapegoats in this joke of a season. What exactly would he be accomplishing by talking his way into the lineup for this completely irrelevant club? Playing poorly in a meaningless game and exposing himself to further injury risk?

What should be obvious is apparently not to everyone, so let's put it out there: an injured player is NOT helping his team by taking the field against his better judgment. This is a lesson we've learned many times before, like when Mauer rushed himself back in spring training, and when Nick Blackburn withheld an achy elbow from the team last year on the way to career-worst numbers, and when Cuddyer battled through numerous ailments back in 2008 to finish with a sub-.700 OPS.

You don't turn into one of the game's premier players by being a sissy. This perception that Mauer is "soft" is being perpetuated by accusatory columnists and a manager that seems oddly reluctant to stick up for his star player. For his part, the catcher has tried his best to fight through a mysterious and debilitating ailment that has surely frustrated him more than anyone else.

Even setting aside the neck injury, it'd probably be in the team's best interests at this point to shut Mauer down for the season with an eye on getting him strong and healthy for 2012. Contrary to what you might have read, brazen stupidity is not an admirable trait.

Thome's Gone to a Better Place

2011-08-26T00:00:00.002-05:00

Jim Thome has been very good to the Minnesota Twins.

Originally signed to a dirt-cheap $1.5 million contract in 2010, he delivered an incredible performance at the age of 39, almost completely offsetting the loss of Justin Morneau by hitting .301/.436/.664 with 15 home runs and 31 RBI from July 7th (the date of Morneau's concussion) through the end of the season.

In the ensuing offseason, Thome reportedly turned down a more lucrative offer from the Rangers to return to Minnesota and help the Twins settle their unfinished business.

Thome has done his part this season, hitting .248/.357/.485 with 12 home runs (including the all-important No. 600) despite being 40 years old, but almost no one else has. So it was only right that the Twins granted passage from purgatory by trading the slugger to the Indians yesterday for a player to be named later, rather than forcing him to play out what might be his final season with a miserable and completely irrelevant club.

After suffering through one of the most humiliating sweeps in memory at Target Field this week, the Twins are now 55-75. That puts them on pace to finish 69-93, which might be generous considering they'll likely be playing out the season without Scott Baker, Denard Span, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Delmon Young and now Thome.

The Indians stand 6 1/2 out in the AL Central. They're a game below .500, and have gone 30-44 since jumping out to a surprising 33-20 start. This flawed Cleveland team stands little chance of overcoming the Tigers and making the playoffs, but Thome will now at least have the opportunity to play meaningful games down the stretch rather than running out the thread with a decimated group that -- despite Joe Mauer's firm insistence to the contrary -- appears to have completely packed it in.

The PTBNL in the deal likely won't amount to much, but it's better than nothing and the important thing here is that the Twins did right by Thome. They owed him that much.

Rocky Rotation

2011-08-24T00:00:00.001-05:00

After coughing up seven runs on nine hits while recording just six outs against one of the league's worst teams last night, Brian Duensing now owns a 5.12 ERA on the season, including 7.42 since the All-Star break. Right-handed hitters, who were slugging .546 against Duensing entering the contest (a mark that would rank 11th in all of baseball for a hitter), ripped five more extra-base hits against him in the disastrous outing.

The Twins are asking for trouble if they're figuring Duensing into their future plans as a starter at this point. The problem is, the same can be said about nearly every member of their rotation.

Nick Blackburn may have dodged a bullet with his latest arm injury, but his deteriorating command and his 6.32 ERA since the start of July must have the team wondering how much they can rely on him, especially after a substandard 2010 campaign.

Francisco Liriano owns a 4.85 ERA this season and hasn't been able to settle into a prolonged groove. Carl Pavano has allowed the most hits in baseball.

All of these starters are under team control for next year, but with the way things have played out this summer, can any of them be counted on to be even quality mid-rotation options for a contender?

Kyle Gibson, whom the club almost surely had in their plans for next year, may end up needing Tommy John surgery, which would put him on the shelf until 2013.

Scott Baker, the only Twins hurler whose performance has been good enough that you could feel comfortable penciling him into next year's starting five, continues to battle elbow problems that have plagued him since last year, raising long-term doubts about the durability of his arm.

The wide array of issues circling the Twins' rotation creates plenty of questions, but also makes three things crystal clear as we look ahead to next year:

1. Kevin Slowey must be retained.

I'm sure the Twins would like nothing more than to part ways with the embattled righty, but right now that doesn't look like a luxury they can afford. Entering his final year of arbitration, Slowey will likely cost only half what a starting pitcher of comparable ability would command on the open market. He's necessary depth.

2. Liriano also must be kept.

Liriano is making $4.3 million this year and will get a raise in arbitration. Are the Twins willing to pay that price for a pitcher coming off such a tumultuous year? Undoubtedly they'll be listening to offers for Liriano this winter, but in their position they'd be wise to hang onto the frustrating southpaw and hope for the best. He's the most talented starting pitcher they have, and you bet on talent above all else.

3. Seek a starter with some upside who can miss bats.

Even if Baker is healthy entering next season, you're counting on the reliably unreliable Liriano and a bunch of a extremely hittable strike-throwers to comprise the rest of your rotation. That's just not a recipe for conquering the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. The Twins need to identify a pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to dominate. The list of pending free agents includes Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Young and Rich Harden. Maybe you get brave and take a shot at Wandy Rodriguez. Take a risk, and break the mold. After a season like this, the status quo is not acceptable.

Mystery Injuries

2011-08-23T00:00:00.002-05:00

For the Twins, it's been a season of injuries that won't go away. And as much as we'd like to, we can't expect the offseason to serve as a cure-all.

Joe Mauer has been the most frustrating and perplexing example. He underwent a knee operation that was considered minor last December, but hadn't recovered in time for spring training and -- after subsequently spending two months on the disabled list -- still hasn't shown that his legs are anywhere near full strength. He hit .356 in July but managed only four extra-base hits. In 18 August games he's hitting .268/.312/.352. This is just not the premier hitter we've come to know.

Scott Baker underwent elbow surgery during the offseason that, like Mauer's, was deemed minor. The right-hander reportedly dealt with "setbacks" in spring training, and now those issues have seemingly resurfaced, as he's on the disabled list for the second time since mid-July.

Then there are the brain injuries. Justin Morneau took a thump on the head last July and hasn't been the same since, while Denard Span suffered his own concussion 11 months later and has gone 2-for-35 between DL stints in the aftermath.

You can make a case that, when healthy, this foursome represents Minnesota's three best position players and their best pitcher. All face significant health uncertainty that could very well stretch beyond the 2011 season. And they're all under contract next year, for a combined $46.5 million.

The front office faces a lot of important decisions in the coming months as they try to get this derailed mess of a team back on track, but those decisions may not be particularly consequential unless these four players can return to satisfactory levels of health and production.

Everything the team does the rest of this season should be built around that focus. It seems likely that Baker and Span are already finished for the year, and one could certainly make the argument that Mauer ought to be shut down as well.

As for Morneau, there's not much to be done other than hoping things will start to click for him with continued reps. Right now, he's headed in the wrong direction, with a .121/.206/.226 hitting line since returning from his neck surgery.

Power: Past, Present and Future

2011-08-17T00:02:00.002-05:00

On Monday night, Jim Thome became the eighth player in baseball history to reach 600 home runs. It was a long time coming for the future Hall of Fame slugger, who debuted in the majors and hit his first career home run back in 1991.

Since then, Thome has averaged 29 homers per year, topping out with 52 in 2002. During that same span, the Twins have had only three players hit more than 29 bombs in a session (Justin Morneau three times, Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter once apiece). In only five of the past 20 years have the Twins' top two home runs hitters combined to go deep 52 times.

It's oddly fitting that Thome would reach this rare and awe-inspiring milestone while playing for an organization that has been so starved for home runs over his entire career.

We've long admired his majestic bombs from afar, while he was hitting 445 of them with the division-rival Indians and White Sox. And over the past two years, we've had the pleasure of observing one of baseball's great all-time power hitters from up close. To say Thome has stood out from the pack during his time in Minnesota, despite aging into his 40s, would be an understatement.

Fans have grown tired of hearing Twins' hitters pile up excuses for their lack of long-ball success in the home yard, but Thome has experienced no such issues. Twenty-one of his 36 dingers over the past two years have come at Target Field, and he completely owns the park's leader board; five of the six longest home runs hit by a Twin in the young stadium belong to Thome, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker.

That Thome has been so successful at an age where even the great all-time power hitters have generally fizzled out is incredible, but one has to wonder how much is left in the tank, especially in light of all the back problems.

Whether or not Thome chooses to continue his career after this season, he'll turn 41 in 10 days and it seems safe to say that he's at least nearing the end of his lengthy reign as one of the game's foremost slugging machines.

When he's gone, it isn't clear who will carry the torch as Minnesota's top bopper. I wrote last week about the organization's gloomy power outlook, with no legitimate home run threats in the high minors and with the future statuses of players like Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer in doubt (either due to health or expiring contracts). Trevor Plouffe leads the organization in homers this year, and it's not clear whether Ron Gardenhire will ever find a defensive position where he's comfortable playing him regularly.

It would seem that the Twins' next true beacon of hope might be Miguel Sano, who is currently 18 and playing rookie ball in Elizabethton. Signed out of the Dominican Republic with a hefty bonus after the 2009 season, Sano is already starting to fulfill his immense power-hitting potential, as he's launched 13 home runs in 51 games this year in the Appalachian League. More than half of Sano's hits have gone for extra bases, aiding a .589 slugging percentage.

Sano has had his issues with plate discipline, but to be pounding the ball like this -- at an age where power is typically an undeveloped tool -- is exciting. When Thome was playing rookie ball at 18 (all the way back in 1989), he hit zero home runs with a .296 slugging percentage in 55 games.

Sano has the type of raw power and potential that makes some analysts believe he could one day sit beside Thome on Target Field's all-time distance leader board. But he is of course only 18 years old (allegedly), and we'll have to wait a long time before that could become a reality.

For now, we'll have to simply appreciate the exceedingly rare specimen that Thome is, especially if this is his swan song.

Jim Thome, the long-time Twin killer, retiring as a Twin after reaching an historical milestone the very same year that Harmon Killeberew -- a legend in his own image -- passed on.

Oddly fitting.

End of the Delmon Era

2011-08-16T00:00:00.005-05:00

Prior to the 2008 season, the Twins traded their top young starting pitcher and their starting shortstop to the Rays for Delmon Young, hoping he'd prove to be a long-term fix for their perpetual right-handed power shortage.

In 497 games over the next four years, he'd hit .287/.324/.429 with 47 home runs. That disappointingly mediocre offensive production, in conjunction with his abysmal defense in left field, made him a liability overall during his time in Minnesota.

While he's shown flashes of transforming into the premier power hitter that his minor-league track record and pedigree suggested possible, Young's horrendous plate discipline, lack of athleticism and inability (or unwillingness) to make adjustments prevented him from permanently turning the corner.

He was amidst his worst season yet when the Twins finally made the decision yesterday to cut the cord, dealing the troubled outfielder to Detroit in exchange for Single-A pitcher Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.

The return might not be terribly exciting, but the fact that the Twins were willing to deal him within the division tells you something about what they thought of him, and the fact that Young went unclaimed on waivers all the way up until the first-place Tigers tells you something about what the league thought of him.

I'd guess that when the Twins hung onto Young at the non-waiver deadline they were hoping his bat would come alive and aid their comeback effort, but with the team promptly dropping out of contention here in August, dumping the fledgling outfielder was essentially a no-brainer. There would be no way to justify tendering him a contract during the offseason and paying him around $6 million in arbitration after the year he's had. The Twins are better off putting that money toward free agency or re-signing Michael Cuddyer/Jason Kubel.

The door is now open for Ben Revere to play regularly for the rest of the season, which should give the Twins a better idea of how he'll factor into their 2012 plans. Meanwhile, Young's salary is off the books and the Twins have added a somewhat intriguing arm in Nelson, who could develop into a quality hard-throwing lefty reliever.

At 25, Young still has the potential to be more than he currently is, but it's been clear to me for some time that he was never going to reach that potential here. I wish him the best, but I'm not sorry to go see him go and I'm not particularly worried that dealing him will come back to haunt the Twins in the long run.

Certainly not as much as dealing for him in the first place did.

The Burden of Blame

2011-08-15T00:00:00.014-05:00

It goes without saying that Francisco Liriano has had a disappointing season. His regression from top-of-the-rotation performer to erratic, inconsistent mechanical mess has been a key ingredient in the Twins' remarkable drop-off from a year ago.

Any time a player's performance deteriorates without any clear explanation, people are going to look for somewhere to pin the blame. In this case, many folks have targeted the coaching staff, for having the gall to suggest in spring training that Liriano could stand to be more efficient with his pitches.

In June, after Liriano had turned in perhaps his strongest start of the year against the Rangers at Target Field, Aaron Gleeman wrote a column that linked Liriano's horrible results in April to the Twins asking him to "pitch to contact" earlier in the spring.

Since that brilliant outing, Liriano has lapsed back into the same funk that plagued him in April and throughout the 2009 season, posting a 5.37 ERA with 31 walks over 55 1/3 innings. This should have put to bed any notion that his early issues were caused by the Twins' tinkering.

Yet, earlier this month, during a dreadful outing in which the lefty coughed up seven runs in Anaheim, Phil Mackey made his own attempt to implicitly blame the Twins' coaches for Liriano's problems, posting the following tweet:

Liriano has obviously been terrible this year. But #Twins' inference that he needed to alter his approach from '10 to '11 was ludicrous.

When I asked Mackey to clarify on this "inference," he pointed to his spring training notes, stating that "Liriano discussion centered much around trying to get 'quick outs' and throw 220 innings."

Ah, how irresponsible. Ludicrous, even.

Liriano was awesome last year and no one was a bigger fan of his performance than me. But what's ludicrous is the notion that he had no room for improvement, or that the team deserves to be castigated for bringing those areas to light.

An unwillingness, or inability, to throw the ball in the strike zone early in the count has been a problem for Liriano at different times throughout his career, and was certainly on display during one spring training outing this year when he needed 75 pitches to get through three innings. I believe the team's focus on "pitching to contact" was more a reaction to his erratic tendencies from the moment he showed up (out of shape) to camp than to his 2010 season. It's silly to think that coaches were asking him to make wholesale alterations to his approach after such a dominant campaign.

What's funny is that if Liriano had actually been able to heed the team's advice and throw the damn ball over the plate, he'd likely be having a very good season. His problems are almost 100 percent attributable to an inability to throw strikes. He's among the league leaders in swinging strike percentage and batters haven't been able to do much with his pitches when putting them in play, managing a measly 15.5 percent line drive rate and a sub-average .286 BABIP.

The key issue with blaming Liriano's troubles on the Twins is that he's done the exact opposite of what they asked. He couldn't throw strikes consistently in April and he still can't here in August, as his most recent outing saw him deliver just 53 of 109 pitches in the zone.

I'm as big of a Frankie apologist as you'll find but it's crystal clear to me that he's created his own problems this season. No one can go out there and throw strikes for him. And if a relatively simple request from the coaches in spring training psyched him out so horribly that he's still out of sorts more than five months later, well, that's on him too.

There are plenty of things the Twins can actually responsibly be blamed for in this mess of a season. How about if we stick with those rather than drawing these kinds of strained causal assumptions?

A Chance For Redemption

2011-08-10T00:00:00.002-05:00

Scott Baker has been the only exception to the starting rotation's funk since the season's halfway point. His departure to the DL due to continued elbow soreness leaves behind a rather unimpressive bunch.

Here are the remaining Twins starters' marks in ERA and WHIP since the beginning of July:

Brian Duensing: 4.30 ERA / 1.33 WHIP
Francisco Liriano: 5.04 ERA / 1.66 WHIP
Carl Pavano: 5.84 ERA / 1.46 WHIP
Nick Blackburn: 7.34 ERA / 2.03 WHIP

Duensing is pacing the group with his average numbers, and from there it just deteriorates, with Blackburn -- who has amazingly allowed an average of two base runners per inning over his past seven starts -- serving as the anchor.

In other words, the bar is not set very high for Kevin Slowey.

Recalled to fill Baker's vacant rotation spot, Slowey will start in Cleveland on Sunday. I said at the beginning of the month that I felt it was "time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again," so I'm pleased he's getting an opportunity.

And, while Twins fans might find this a sad fact, all Slowey needs to do is pitch up to his mediocre career norms (4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP) and he's got a chance to be the team's best starter from here on out. Given the uncertainties that currently surround the health statuses of Baker and Kyle Gibson, not to mention the competence of Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn, trading Slowey might be a luxury the Twins can no longer afford.

If the embattled righty can pitch well down the stretch and rebuild bridges with his coaches and teammates, it would provide a meaningful positive development as this mercilessly awful season winds down.

Tuesday Notes

2011-08-09T00:23:00.002-05:00

* Anyone get the feeling that the Twins are cosmically cursed this year? Practically every break has gone against them. Beyond all the injuries and the generally lackluster play, one can't help but notice that impending free agents like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel have raised their value with good seasons while potential trade chips like Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano have cratered their value with poor play and off-the-field issues.

On top of all that, and their best pitching prospect might be destined for Tommy John surgery.

* Oh, and it wouldn't surprise me if Scott Baker, one of the few bright spots of this season for the Twins, is headed for the same fate.

* My hunch is growing stronger…

* After surrendering six extra-base hits to righties on Sunday, including mammoth upper-deck homers by Paul Konerko and Brent Lillibridge, Brian Duensing has now yielded a .309/.367/.515 hitting line against opposite-sided hitters.

Properly utilized in the bullpen, Duensing would be a dominant late-inning force thanks to his otherworldly success against left-handed batters. In the rotation, where he continues to face righty-stacked lineups, he's a mediocre back-end starter on a team that's full of them. He's an asset that's not being maximized, and that's a shame.

Eventually, the Twins have to figure it out. Right?

* If you're interested in getting out to a game during this week's series against the Red Sox at Target Field, TiqIQ has the line on third-party tickets, which are in demand thanks to Jim Thome's chase for 600.

Contemplating Cuddyer and Kubel

2011-08-08T00:00:00.000-05:00

Only two American League teams (Oakland and Seattle) have hit fewer home runs than Minnesota this year. After hitting just one homer at Target Field over the weekend while the visiting White Sox clubbed seven, the Twins are on pace to barely edge the 100-homer mark as a team. If they fail to reach triple digits, it would be the first time since 1980 that it's happened for this franchise.

Yes, the Twins are amidst a rather distressing power drought. And unfortunately, the outlook going forward is none too bright.

Jim Thome is not likely to return next year. There's a good chance Delmon Young will be non-tendered or traded. And no player in the Twins' farm system can safely be projected as more than a 15-HR guy in the majors.

These factors add urgency to the decisions involving Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in the upcoming offseason. Both slugging outfielders are eligible to become free agents, and losing the two of them could prove devastating for an organization that is already desperately short on pop.

Unsurprisingly, the Twins have made it clear that they intend to pursue Cuddyer, with reports suggesting that they've already uncharacteristically tried to open negotiations midseason by offering a two-year, $16 million extension.

Cuddyer and his agent smartly turned down that offer, knowing his outstanding season amidst the Twins' meltdown in 2011 has raised his price tag. Assuming he finishes strong, I'd be surprised if Cuddyer were asking for any less than three years and $30 million once he hits the open market. He can probably get it somewhere. Hopefully not here.

I appreciate all the things Cuddyer brings as a member of this team, but the Twins are already in bad shape with some bulky contracts and handing an expensive three-year deal to a 33-year-old who's never put together consecutive good seasons is bad business.

If it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins would probably be better off re-upping Kubel. While he, like Cuddyer, has looked great at the plate this season, Kubel has missed significant time due to injury so his stock won't be quite as high.

Prior to this year, Kubel had played at least 140 games in three straight seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 91 RBI. While his platoon splits have been a chronic issue (one that's showing signs of improvement), Kubel's bat has been at least as good as Cuddyer's and he's also three years younger.

If the Twins want to loosen the purse strings and re-sign both outfielders, so be it. But keeping Cuddyer with a hefty contract at the expense of Kubel would be a mistake. In fact, outbidding any other motivated GM for Cuddyer's services will likely backfire in the long run, worsening an already murky financial situation.

Unless Cuddy is willing to accept a hometown discount, the Twins ought to offer arbitration, let the Type A free agent walk and use the draft picks next year to replenish a depleted minor-league system.

Morneau: Down on His Luck

2011-08-05T00:00:00.002-05:00

Midway through a feature I wrote on Justin Morneau for the Maple Street Press Twins Annual this spring, I made a rather bold proclamation: "It seems Justin might be the unluckiest man in baseball."

The suggestion stemmed from Morneau's back-to-back season-ending injuries in 2009 and 2010, injuries that would have to be described as -- at the very least -- unusual.

Two years ago, Morneau missed all of September, and the playoffs, due to a fractured vertebrae that had apparently been sustained gradually over time. The following season, he missed the final three months, and again the playoffs, after suffering a concussion on a seemingly innocuous play in Toronto.

I've had my quibbles with the ridiculously over prescribed "injury-prone" label in pro baseball, but if there was ever a Twins player who represented the antithesis of the term it would have been Morneau prior to September of 2009.

Between 2006 and 2007, the first baseman missed a total of only 10 games. In 2008, he started every single one of the Twins' 163 contests. And, through August 17th of '09, he'd started all but one game.

Then, the back issue popped up. That cleared, allowing him to go on an MVP-type tear through June of 2010 before the early-July concussion. This year, in trying to return from a brain injury, Morneau has been plagued by a nasty flu, a sore wrist (the only one of these ailments that, from what I've heard, might actually be his fault), and a pinched nerve in his neck that required surgery and has had him shelved since early June.

Last week, Morneau had to temporarily stall his rehab from this latest setback when migraine headaches -- supposedly not related to the concussion or neck problem -- began to bog him down. Of course.

He's probably the best young slugger to wear a Twins uniform since Kent Hrbek retired, so it's a real shame to see Morneau's prime years being absolutely ravaged by repeated unlucky injuries. The guy is more than due for a few good breaks.

Hopefully we see a reversal of fortunes get underway when he gets back on the field for the Twins, which should be within the next couple weeks. (Barring a bout with the bubonic plague.)

Pavano and Blackburn: Contact Kings

2011-08-04T00:00:00.022-05:00

Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn haven't had particularly memorable seasons up to this point, but at least they do find themselves atop the American League leader board in one category: hits allowed.

Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.

Hey, it's something, right?

The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.

There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.

The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).

It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.

By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.

Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.

The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.

You reap what you sow, I guess.

Staying Put

2011-08-01T00:00:00.005-05:00

The non-waiver trade deadline came and went yesterday without the Twins making a single move. The fan base had been on edge with Denard Span's name being thrown around by a lot of reporters, but when push came to shove nothing materialized between the Twins and Nationals.

It sounds like the main sticking point was Washington's unwillingness to include closer Drew Storen, and I'd guess they were at least a little tentative about Span's health. Either way, the Nats likely did the Twins a favor.

It probably says something about the level of faith people have in Bill Smith that the general reaction to a non-move at the deadline is relief rather than disappointment, but that's certainly where I'm at. The Span-for-Storen rumors reeked of another instance where Smith and the front office were undervaluing their own asset while vastly overvaluing the save statistic. (One report from Scott Miller of CBS Sports suggested that the Nats were pushing to include Tyler Clippard -- a reliever who is at least as good as Storen -- and the Twins balked because he's a "setup man.")

I said last week that I felt the Twins should sit tight at the deadline so I'm not upset by the lack of activity. I was pleasantly surprised to see Kevin Slowey stay put. Smith was undoubtedly dangling the right-hander, but didn't get an adequate offer and didn't cave in. For that, I give him credit.

It's time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again. He was stellar in a Triple-A start in Rochester on Saturday night and should be starting in the majors. A spot could be created in the rotation by either shifting Brian Duensing to the bullpen (where I continue to believe he'd be a greater asset) or by bumping the struggling Nick Blackburn.

At the very least, Slowey would hopefully be able to build up some value for an offseason trade.

After dropping two of three in Oakland, the Twins enter August in fourth place and seven games back in a weak division. They still hold a faint chance at resuscitating their postseason hopes, and one could quibble with the lack of a move to add some bullpen help, but those kinds of deals can be pulled off in August -- in fact, that's where Smith has made done some of his best work.

Trade Deadline Chatter

2011-07-29T01:44:00.001-05:00

A few thoughts on the midseason hot stove, as seen from 1 Twins Way:

* Unsurprisingly, the wayward Twins haven't been prevalent in trade speculation with the non-waiver deadline approaching on Sunday. One annoying rumor that wouldn't go away was that the Twins and Nationals were discussing a swap of Denard Span and Drew Storen. The rumblings stemmed from a Ken Rosenthal report and picked up steam when Jim Bowden tweeted that the two sides were "working hard" on getting a "multi-player deal" done.

I don't really understand how such a move would make sense from either side. After suffering a concussion earlier this season, Span's health status is very much in flux. The Nationals would have to feel pretty confident in his recovery to offer up something worthwhile.

Assuming that's the case, the Twins are not in a position to trade yet another valuable up-the-middle starter for a relief pitcher. While Storen would certainly represent an ideal long-term closing solution, Span isn't really an expendable piece at this point.

The center fielder is under control through 2015 on a very team-friendly contract, while Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are on the verge of free agency and Delmon Young will be heading into his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Span ranks third on the team in on-base percentage. In 2009, he ranked first. In 2008, he ranked second. Setting aside his mediocre 2010 campaign, Span has basically been an ideal leadoff hitter, whereas last night in his absence the Twins started Ben Revere (.294 OBP) and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (.269 OBP) in the first and second spots preceding Joe Mauer. Yuck.

While I like Ben Revere, the jury is out on whether he can be an everyday player in the majors, much less a leadoff man. By unloading Span, the Twins would risk creating the type of headache in center field that they've already created at shortstop and catcher through similarly misguided moves.

* Ultimately, I'd guess that the chatter regarding Span's trade availability has mostly come out of Washington's corner, and the center fielder will stay put through the weekend. I do, however, expect that Kevin Slowey will be gone by Monday.

I'd prefer to the see the Twins try and utilize Slowey rather than moving him, but at this point it seems clear that bridges have been irreparably burnt. If he has to go, I just hope something palatable can be had for him.

The Twins could certainly do worse than right-handed reliever Rafael Betancourt, whom La Velle E. Neal III mentioned as a possible target in noting that the Twins and Rockies have discussed a Slowey deal.

Betancourt's 4.28 ERA this year understates his effectiveness. He holds a fantastic 43-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 frames, and over the past three seasons he's posted a 3.47 ERA while averaging 11 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings.

A reasonable $4.25 million option in 2013 makes Betancourt, 36, especially desirable considering the Twins' bullpen uncertainty going forward.

Still, it'd be a shame to lose a good young talent like Slowey for him.

* I wrote earlier this week about the miserable options Ron Gardenhire is facing at the shortstop position. Now, with Alexi Casilla landing on the disabled list after pulling a hamstring on Wednesday night, the manager's dilemma grows even more gruesome.

Meanwhile, J.J. Hardy has bashed four home runs this week, pushing his season total to 18. Hardy is hitting .280/.330/.519 for the Orioles, making Bill Smith's offseason decision to dump the shortstop for little return look predictably awful.

Also, for all the grumbling about how "injury-prone" Hardy is (and all the chiding I received when he landed on the DL with an oblique strain back in April), he's played in more games than all but three Twins players.

(Oh, and for the swarms of people who are sure to complain about another reference to Hardy: his name hasn't been mentioned in a post on this blog since April. Simmer.)

* One additional note: next Wednesday I'll be participating in a sports trivia contest at Gabe's by the Park in St. Paul. Also competing will be Tim Allen of the Timberwolves blog Canis Hoopus, Nathan Eide of the Wild blog Hockey Wilderness, and David Erickson of Minnesota Vikings Chat.

The event will feature food specials and opportunities for the audience to take part in the action, so if you've got no plans, come on by and watch me finish last.

Buy or Sell?

2011-07-28T01:13:00.000-05:00

Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline is just three days away, which has Twins fans everywhere pondering that age-old question faced by clubs sitting on the fringe of contention in late July: buy or sell?

In each of the past two years, we've seen Bill Smith pull the trigger on deadline deals, acquiring shortstop Orlando Cabrera for the stretch run in '09 and closer Matt Capps a year ago. To Smith's credit, both those moves paid short-term dividends, helping the team charge to a division title. (To his discredit, the Capps trade may ultimately go down as one of the worst in franchise history, but I digress…)

This year's Twins team presents a paradox. They seemed destined for a totally non-competitive season after going 17-36 in the injury-ravaged months of April and May, but charged back with an excellent June to move within shouting distance of the division lead.

Optimistic fans desperately want to believe that the "true Twins" are the ones from June who seemingly couldn't lose, but it's more likely that what we saw that month was a natural correction after those first two miserable months. What goes up must come down, or vice versa in this case.

Since the end of June, the Twins have played .500 ball and held steady between 5-7 GB in the Central. It's easy to pump out excuses for their lackluster overall record, but at the end of the day they hold a 22-41 record against teams with a winning record and their pitching staff -- which has largely been healthy -- has allowed more runs than all but two AL clubs.

We need to accept the fact that this just isn't a very good ball club, and dumping valuable resources to make incremental short-term improvements for a mediocre team with a slim chance at a postseason berth is foolhardy. The notion of aggressively buying should be out the window.

Then again, just because they're heavily flawed doesn't mean the Twins should be written off. The AL Central is particularly unimpressive this year and this is a squad that has shown the ability to rattle off wins in bunches.

Trading a key player like Joe Nathan or Jason Kubel would likely put the kibosh on whatever shot the Twins have at closing the deficit in the Central, and I don't think the return on such players would be enough to justify that. Nathan's contract (still owed a chunk of his $11.25M salary, plus an expensive buyout for next year's option) and Kubel's specific utility (righty-mashing DH type on the verge of FA) limit their values to the point where I don't think a lot of impact talent could be had for them. Meanwhile, the Twins have made it very clear that their best trade chip, Michael Cuddyer, isn't going anywhere under any circumstances.

With that being the case, why not stand pat and hope for the best? Other "sell" candidates like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano remain under team control through next year, so decisions can be made on them in the offseason. Might as well see if those two, along with a number of other underperforming team members, can get it going in the final months and at the very least keep things interesting.

If I were the GM, I'd sit tight and focus on minor moves that won't take usable talent out of the organization, even if those moves come after the July 31st deadline (typically when Smith has done his best work).

Patience for the Wrong Reasons

2011-07-27T00:00:00.006-05:00

In the second inning of a scoreless game last night, Tsuyoshi Nishioka came to the plate with no outs and runners on second and third. There are a lot of ways to push a run across in this situation, but Nishioka -- characteristically -- failed to come through.

On a 2-1 pitch, he hit a grounder directly to the drawn-in first baseman, allowing the Rangers to easily cut Delmon Young down at home plate. In spite of Roy Smalley's mysterious praise on the FSN telecast, this was one of the worst things Nishioka could have done.

In the top of the ninth, he came to the plate in a similar situation and managed to bounce a weak grounder past the pitcher's mound, plating the tying run and even landing Nishioka on first base thanks to a bobble by Elvis Andrus.

Better results, but same ugly approach. On the night, Nishioka went 1-for-5 (his only "hit" was a grounder straight at the third baseman that should have been scored an error) and can consider himself lucky to reach twice as he didn't hit the ball out of the infield.

It's been a season filled with bad offensive outcomes for the Japanese import, who is hitting .220/.276/.248 through 42 games. He's looked so utterly overmatched in this league that fans are increasingly beginning to wonder just how long his leash will be.

It's still too early to give up completely on Nishioka, and one can point to a significant leg injury suffered just six games into his MLB career as a possible explanation for his struggles, but there aren't really any promising signs to be drawn from his performance.

He was bad before the injury, he's been bad since the injury, and frankly he's only getting worse. In his past 12 games, he's collected seven singles in 41 at-bats (.171) with 10 strikeouts and zero walks.

The lack of other appealing options in the organization and the fact that games may soon lose relevance could be deemed reasons for letting Nishioka play through his struggles, but a demotion to Triple-A might be beneficial for both team and player.

At this point it's not at all clear that Nishioka is the shortstop of the future, so the Twins should take this opportunity to get a look at some other players at the position. It's hard to imagine the team being worse off by letting Trevor Plouffe try to play through his throwing yips, but if they're truly uncomfortable with his arm there they could let Alexi Casilla slide over to short and try Plouffe at second.

With the trade deadline approaching, there's been some debate about whether the Twins should be focusing on their present or their future. But whichever of the two they're focusing on, getting an extended glimpse at Plouffe in the middle infield -- where his offense is a whole lot more intriguing than at right field or first base -- should take precedence over continuing to trot the dreadfully overwhelmed Nishioka out day after day solely because of his contract.

Liriano's Self-Inflicted Wounds

2011-07-26T01:28:00.000-05:00

The Twins have dealt with their fair share of uneven performances from the starting rotation this year. It's safe to say that, outside of Scott Baker, no pitcher has been as consistent as they'd like.

For the most part, that's the nature of the beast. When Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing turns in an ugly start, it's tough to get too worked up, because most people understand that they're contact pitchers who invariably are going to have stretches where their pitches flatten out or their luck catches up with them.

Francisco Liriano's struggles have been more inexplicable and far more aggravating. Here we have a 27-year-old with an electric arm coming off a breakout season who has basically managed to undo all the positive progress he'd made since returning from Tommy John surgery four years ago.

In what figured to be the defining season of his career, Liriano showed up to spring training with a sore shoulder -- allegedly the result of a failure to keep up with his offseason workout regimen -- and since then the left-hander's campaign has been a hideous mess, spotted with random spectacular highlights.

One of the biggest reasons that I projected a monster year for Liriano was that he suffered from horrible batted ball luck in 2010, which caused his superficial core numbers to underplay his truly dominant performance. If he could simply repeat what he did last year with neutral luck, I pegged him to rank as one of the league's finest starters.

Sure enough, Liriano's BABIP has dropped from .335 in '10 to .280 in '11, and as a result he's averaging only 7.9 hits allowed per nine innings -- his lowest rate since the surgery. Unfortunately, he has more than offset this by completely losing his ability to throw the ball over the plate.

Last year, Liriano threw 64 percent of his pitches for strikes and averaged 2.7 walks per nine innings. He issued more than three free passes in a start only four times all season.

This year, he's throwing only 57 percent of his pitches for strikes and is averaging 5 BB/9IP, which is the worst rate of his career (worse even than his disastrous 2009). He's issued four or more walks in eight starts, including three of his past four.

If he were simply throwing garbage and getting crushed, Liriano's laborious outings would be easier to accept. But what's truly infuriating is that he's actually been pretty damned effective outside of the control problems. He's hitting the mid-90s with his fastball and his slider is as nasty as ever. His swinging strike percentage of 11.9 ranks second in all of baseball. Opponents are hitting line drives only 15.7 percent of the time against him, a career low that helps explain the drop in BABIP.

When Liriano is on, he's almost unbeatable, and we've seen that on a few all-too-rare occasions this year. For the most part, though, he's been completely out of sorts, often seeming to have no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand.

The southpaw's self-inflicted wounds are beyond frustrating to watch, and they leave the Twins in a difficult situation going forward. Do they continue to try and help him work through these recurring mental blocks -- a game they've been playing for far too long -- or do they cut bait and let him try to figure things out elsewhere, knowing full well that if he can recapture the command he had a year ago he could easily become one of the most dominant pitchers in the league?

I'm interested to hear what the masses think. I've always been a huge supporter of Liriano, but what I'm coming to realize is that I'm in love with the left arm a lot more than the rest of the package. I'd vote for hanging onto him through next year at least, if only because he remains the organization's sole chance at a true ace in the near future, but at this point I can only shake my head while watching him waste his talent and help crush the Twins' 2011 chances.

Dose of Reality

2011-07-25T00:00:00.001-05:00

After stumbling to a horrendous 17-37 start, the Twins were able to turn things around and win 24 of 35 games leading up to the All-Star break. Amazingly, just six weeks after standing 16.5 games out of first place, they had put themselves in position to potentially overtake first place with an extremely successful homestand to open the second half.

Unfortunately, the 12-game stretch against division foes that came to a close yesterday could not be described as extremely or even moderately successful. It can only be viewed as a bitter disappointment. Given the opportunity to gain vital ground on two AL Central frontrunners while playing at Target Field -- where they'd gone 14-4 since the start of June -- the Twins failed to take advantage, despite sporting a roster that is as close to full-strength as it's been in months.

They won only six of the 12 games and went 3-5 against the division-leading Tigers and Indians.

By avoiding total catastrophe in the homestand (which seemed possible after they dropped their first two against both Cleveland and Detroit), the Twins remain fringe contenders, but this was a costly whiff. They now sit seven games out, with three teams in front of them and a rough 10-game road trip through the AL West on deck.

At this point it seems far more plausible that the Twins will consider themselves sellers by the time July 31st rolls around than that they'll be close enough to first place to justify the expense of valuable resources for a short-term upgrade.

That's a tough dose of reality, but the Twins have no one to look at but themselves. When you get past all the excuses, there's one number that really stands out as the reason they find themselves in their current position: a 1-8 record against the Tigers.

Programming Note

2011-07-19T14:48:00.000-05:00

I just wanted to toss up a quick post apologizing for the lack of fresh content here lately. The internet at my house has been down for about a week now (thanks Comcast!), which has prevented me from being able to get much blogging done. Hopefully the situation will be resolved soon and I can get back to updating this space on a semi-regular basis.

Until then, I recommend amusing yourself by watching this trailer repeatedly and throwing darts at a Matt Capps poster.

Another Relief Option

2011-07-18T00:00:00.001-05:00

Shuffling the roles for Joe Nathan and Matt Capps at the back end of the bullpen may help alleviate some of the frustrating ninth-inning meltdowns, but -- as Ron Gardenhire noted -- the Twins are still going to have Capps lined up to throw a lot of high-leverage innings. If he can't get on track the team will still be hurting for right-handed relief late in close games.

The Twins recognize this, and reports that they "have had internal discussions about bringing back Jon Rauch," whose personality they couldn't get rid of fast enough during the offseason, would seem to offer a glimpse into their desperation.

Without a doubt, the front office is going to need to identify a reliable right-handed arm to serve in a setup role, and unless he can find his command Capps won't be adequate. As the Twins scour the trade market for palatable options, they ought to give consideration to one option that's already within their organization: 23-year-old Kyle Gibson.

Gibson, who emerged as a top pitching prospect last year with a spectacular season in the minors, impressed the coaching staff so much during spring training that some felt he was ready to pitch in the majors.

Instead, he headed to Rochester with the expectation that he'd be up to help the big-league club at some point during the summer.

As it turns out, while their lineup has been ravaged by a staggering number of injuries, the Twins' rotation has (knock on wood) remained mostly healthy. For his part, while he's doing a good job of getting strikeouts and grounders, Gibson has turned in short start after short start in Triple-A. Only once in 16 turns has the righty completed seven innings, and he's gotten through six just twice in his past 10 starts. For an organization that strongly emphasizes starters pitching deep into games, that's not a good way to force yourself into the rotation picture.

Could Gibson make an impact in the bullpen, though? His lacking stamina would not be an issue there, and he might be able to maximize his stuff in short stints the way Glen Perkins has. Gibson's repertoire has played well in Rochester, as he's averaging a strikeout per innings and has been especially tough on righties, holding them to a .266 average with a 52-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Twins view Gibson as a starter in the long term, but they've often worked their best pitching prospects into the majors in relief roles in the past. If they feel that this approach wouldn't hurt Gibson's progression, it would make an awful lot of sense to give his highly touted arm a shot before trading more assets away for a guy like Rauch who probably isn't any better.

Power Infusion

2011-07-13T00:00:00.001-05:00

In 89 games this year, the Twins have hit 54 home runs. Among AL teams, only the Athletics, with 50, have hit fewer. Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays has hit 31 on his own.

If they maintain their pace through the rest of the season, the Twins won't even reach 100 home runs as a team; it would be their first time failing to reach triple-digits in a full season since 1980. No team has made the playoffs while hitting fewer than 100 homers since the '88 Dodgers (who, ironically, would see Kirk Gibson hit one of the most famous home runs of all time in the World Series).

Fortunately, there are a number of reasons to believe that the Twins will beat their current 98-homer projection handily. Two of those reasons just rejoined the roster after Sunday's game.

When the All-Star break ends, the Twins will be carrying Delmon Young -- returning from a sprained ankle -- and Trevor Plouffe -- returning after terrorizing Triple-A for several weeks -- in place of Rene Tosoni and Rene Rivera.

Young had hit only two home runs in 217 plate appearances when he landed on the disabled list after an awkward collision with the outfield wall in Milwaukee, but he blasted 21 last year and is known as a player whose bat picks up as the season goes on.

His abysmal production this year after seemingly beginning to realize his immense power potential in 2010 has been baffling, but something clearly hasn't been right with the left fielder. Whatever it is, hopefully it was remedied along with his ankle during this latest DL stint. Young did homer twice during a nine-game rehab assignment in Ft. Myers, which is a good sign.

Meanwhile, Plouffe leads the organization in home runs by a wide margin this year with 18. Michael Cuddyer, who is pacing the Twins in gopher balls and appeared in last night's All Star Game, has hit 13.

Plouffe has already rocketed past his previous career-best homer total of 15, which he set last year. Granted, he's been spending his fourth season in Triple-A, so it's not clear how much stock can be put into this shocking power outburst, but the former first-round pick did go deep three times while posting an impressive ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .183 in 18 games with the Twins back in May.

There are no guarantees with either of these players, but if Young can turn things around and Plouffe can just continue to do what he's been doing, they will add a serious infusion of power to this roster, which would go a long way toward bettering the Twins' slim postseason odds.

Can History Repeat?

2011-07-11T00:00:00.001-05:00

On June 1st, the Tigers completed a sweep of the Twins at Comerica Park. After that loss, Minnesota sat 16.5 games out of first place with a miserable 17-37 record.

Since then, they have gone 24-11 and gained 10 games on Detroit in the standings. While a 6.5-game deficit at the All-Star break is daunting, it's not insurmountable. Ron Gardenhire has been there before.

In 2003, the Twins lost 12 of 13 games heading into the break and sat 7.5 out when the Midsummer Classic rolled around. Coincidentally, it was at that very point that their season turned around completely.

Over that All-Star break, Terry Ryan traded for Shannon Stewart, who assumed lead-off duties for a team that suddenly became the hottest in baseball. The Twins went 45-23 the rest of the way, finishing with 90 wins and taking the division handily.

If this year's Twins could match the .660 post-break winning percentage achieved by that '03 club, they would finish with 89 wins, which could very well be enough to come out on top.

The second-half surge in '03 was made possible by strong starting pitching, a capable lineup and a crummy division. All those factors would seem to be in place at present. The missing ingredient, though, is an external jolt.

While it makes for a tidy storyline to claim that Stewart came aboard and single-handedly carried the club to the playoffs, it wasn't that simple. Many other players contributed heavily in the comeback, including some kid named Santana who (finally) got a shot in the rotation. But Stewart did address a significant weakness on the roster, and his arrival did send a signal to fans and players alike that the front office was in it to win it despite the sizable deficit.

I don't think we'll see any players brought in via trade during this year's All-Star break, but the Twins must be considered buyers at this point and already are making moves to strengthen their roster by adding Trevor Plouffe and Delmon Young. These moves will be the subject of the next post here.

Catastrophe

2011-07-07T00:41:00.002-05:00

When Joe Mauer first landed on the disabled list back in April, I tweeted that if he "can't get healthy and productive, this situation has potential to turn into one of the biggest catastrophes in franchise history." A lot of people accused me of hyperbolizing.

Up to this point, however, that potential has been fully realized. Mauer spent a whopping two months on the DL trying to strengthen his legs and the entire ordeal hasn't yielded any apparent benefits.

After sitting out yesterday's game due to "general soreness," the backstop shared with reporters that he was "pretty beat up" after catching three consecutive days, while also acknowledging that he's still not generating any power with his back leg (the same affliction that bothered Mauer last year, and which December's surgery and multiple lubricant injections during spring training were supposed to alleviate).

If you read Phil Mackey's somber piece linked above, you can find three separate instances in which Mauer refers to what a "grind" he expects the rest of the season to be, basically letting fans know that we probably won't be seeing him at 100 percent the rest of the way, which unfortunately is what the Twins need more than anything to jolt their patchy offense and make a surge in the standings.

Unlike a certain local columnist, I'm not angry at Mauer and I'm not going to belittle him for being unable to get on the field. More than anything, I feel sorry for him. His body is inexplicably breaking down on him at the age of 28, and he's letting a lot of people down.

That can't be a good feeling.

The Closer Controversy

2011-07-06T00:00:00.004-05:00

It's been a rough month of July thus far for Matt Capps.

On Saturday night, the right-hander entered to protect a three-run lead against Milwaukee in the ninth, only to yield four runs on five hits while recording two outs, giving away the remnants of what was once a seven-run edge.

The following day, he came on with a two-run lead, but gave up two quick hits while recording only one out and was replaced with Glen Perkins, who closed out the win.

Last night, Capps came on in a 3-1 ballgame, immediately surrendered a home run, then surrounded two outs with a hit and a walk before once again being pulled in favor of Perkins, who once again finished the job.

That's three consecutive multi-run leads that Capps has been unable to close out. Not exactly what you're looking for in a closer, especially when your offensively challenged club needs to play .630 ball the rest of the way in order to have a realistic shot at the postseason.

Ron Gardenhire is publicly maintaining that Capps is still the Twins' closer, but there's no doubt that his confidence has waned. Gardy's given the righty an uncharacteristically short leash over his past two outings (for which the manager deserves a lot of credit), and Capps hadn't been particularly effective prior to this month, converting only 13 of 18 save chances.

At this point, fans are calling for Capps' head (I think I learned some new cuss words sitting out by the bullpen at Target Field last night) but the reality is that he's a good -- not great -- reliever that's going through a slump. It's sort of similar, in fact, to the skid that struck Jon Rauch in July of last year, prompting the Twins to trade for Capps in the first place.

Since that swap, Capps has gone 29-for-37 in save opportunities. That 78 percent conversion rate is decidedly mediocre and is actually exactly the same as Rauch's rate over the past two years with Minnesota and Toronto. Similar results for similarly good-but-not-great relief pitchers.

What many said at the time has now been unequivocally proven: there was no mystical quality to Capps' "closing experience," for which the enamored Twins gave up their top catching prospect at the deadline last year and overpaid wildly in arbitration this year. They got suckered.

But there's no use in beating a dead horse. Right now I can only hope that the Twins' decision-makers have learned their lesson, and that they're prepared to swallow their pride and get somebody in the ninth inning who can throw the ball past a hitter once in a while.

It's not his last three outings that have made it obvious Capps is a bad fit in the closer role. It's his 5.3 K/9IP rate on the season. Consistent success is almost unachievable for a reliever allowing that much contact.

Pulling Out All the Stops

2011-06-29T00:00:00.005-05:00

The Twins' amazing run over the first three weeks of June collectively rejuvenated the fan base, making believers out of doubters as the club moved 10 games closer to first place in less than a month's time.

The subsequent six-game losing streak -- punctuated by a humiliating 15-0 loss at Target Field on Monday night -- erased much of the team's progress, while also bringing the "It's Happening" meme to a screeching halt.

In reality, the Twins aren't totally out of it. They're nine games behind in a mediocre division and the season isn't quite halfway over.

Of course, there's a lot of ground to make up. Many things would need to happen for the Twins to surmount their deficit in the AL Central standings and charge into the playoffs.

First and foremost, they need to start playing at full strength. They need injured players to come back and produce quickly, they need Francisco Liriano to get back to pitching the way he was prior to his last outing, and most of all they need Mauer to come alive.

They also need both the Indians and Tigers to play sub-.500 ball in the second half, but I don't think anyone will have too much trouble envisioning that.

All the factors mentioned above are basically out of the front office's and manager's control. If the team's stars can't get healthy and contribute, or if another club in the division wins 90-plus games, the Twins are toast.

If those things break right, though, the Twins will still need to pull out all the stops and maximize what they've got if they're serious about making it happen. Below is a list of four moves I would make to give them their best shot at pulling off an improbable second-half comeback:

1) Replace Tsuyoshi Nishioka at shortstop with Trevor Plouffe.

Nishioka is a 26-year-old foreign player learning a new culture and a new league. His struggles up to this point have been understandable, and it's too soon to give up on him. With that being said, he's looked ridiculously overmatched in the major leagues.

Plouffe was demoted for his sloppy play in the field earlier this year, but Nishioka has committed seven errors in 18 games. And unlike Nishioka, Plouffe has hit. He leads the organization with 14 home runs this year, and he's raking at a blistering .303/.374/.627 clip in Rochester.

Plouffe has earned his shot. Nishioka has not, and frankly could probably benefit from adjusting to the stateside brand of baseball in a less pressure-packed situation.

2) Move Brian Duensing to bullpen, replacing him in rotation with Kevin Slowey or Kyle Gibson.

As expected, Duensing has been a perfectly adequate back-of-rotation starter this year, though not the front-end guy that his superficially impressive core numbers over the past two seasons would have suggested.

I don't think his production in the rotation (5-7, 4.69 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) would be that difficult to replace. In fact, there are two starters readily available who would likely match or improve upon Duensing's results: Slowey and Gibson.

Meanwhile, Duensing would drastically improve the bullpen, giving the Twins a legitimate situational left-hander with Jose Mijares proving totally untrustworthy. It's really the role Duensing is best suited for; he's holding port-siders to a .530 OPS this year while righties have tagged him for a .318 average and .857 OPS.

3) Replace Phil Dumatrait with Chuck James.

While relatively minor, this is a no-brainer. If the goal is to win games, James should be in the bullpen over Dumatrait. It's blindingly obvious that he's a better pitcher.

4) Identify a reliable right-handed reliever.

Ideally, this would be Joe Nathan. If he can't round into shape, the Twins need to go out and find a quality righty to add to the bullpen, because right now they've got nothing outside of Matt Capps. Hopefully they learned their lesson last year about overpaying for relievers in deadline deals, but if the Twins can spin an unwanted part or find a good value in August (like they did with Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes the last two years), they'd be wise to pull the trigger quickly.

Swinging for the Fences

2011-06-28T00:30:00.001-05:00

Plenty of Twins hitters have struggled this year, but Ron Gardenhire has been especially hard on Danny Valencia. The manager's frustration seems to be directed more at the young third baseman's approach than his results.

"He's got a lot of movement going on and they are trying to slow that down," Gardenhire said a couple weeks ago, in an interview where he also hinted that a demotion to the minors could be in store. "When Danny is swinging good he's driving the ball up the middle and the other way, staying on pitches. Right now, it looks like he's trying to hit every ball into the seats."

In 14 games since that quote was published, Valencia has only 10 hits -- six of them for extra bases, including three homers and a deep triple. Here's his spray chart during that span (excluding last night's game):

Zero hits to the opposite field. It seems clear that, whether intentional or not, Valencia isn't heeding his manager's advice. He's swinging hard and trying to crush the ball, and while that has resulted in some welcome power productivity, he's also hitting only .212 in those 14 games, with two walks and 11 strikeouts.

The Twins are so thin from injuries that Valencia need not worry about a trip to the minors for now. But if he doesn't start picking it up in the second half, he won't find himself guaranteed a starting job next year, regardless of the homer and RBI totals.

The First Step

2011-06-27T00:00:00.007-05:00

It's happening. The Twins are finally easing up on their stringent "Catcher Only" rule with Joe Mauer, a reversal which -- while basically necessitated by circumstances -- strikes me as significant.

Although he's returned to the lineup after missing two months due to leg weakness, Mauer still seems to be dragging along. He continues to hit the ball into the ground about 70 percent of the time, he's bickering with pitchers, and his struggles in the No. 3 spot epitomize the lineup's ineptitude.

Moreover, despite the club's insistence that they view Mauer as their starting catcher, he's increasingly becoming a part-time player in that role. Since returning from the disabled list, he's started only six of the team's nine games behind the plate, and yesterday wasn't able to crack the lineup due to the lack of a DH in an NL park.

If his usage pattern thus far is any indication, Mauer may not be capable of catching more than two out of every three games, and that presents a problem if the Twins want to keep him in the lineup alongside Jim Thome on a regular basis.

The obvious solution, of course, is to hand Mauer a first baseman's mitt and start giving him sporadic starts there while Justin Morneau recovers from neck surgery. Realizing this, the Twins have begun working Mauer out at first, which may be leading toward his first appearance at a position other than catcher as a major-leaguer. Ron Gardenhire told reporters that Mauer would have been in the lineup yesterday if he could play first.

I have gone on record as saying I think a position switch for Mauer is an inevitability at this point, and that the Twins would be wise to start facilitating that transition as soon as possible. Could this be the first step?

Is It Happening?

2011-06-24T00:11:00.001-05:00

As a guy who spent four years studying journalism in college, I appreciate good reporting. I think we Twins fans are pretty lucky to have a wide range of talented reporters covering our favorite team. I may have my quibbles with the lack of scrutiny applied at times, but in general I do believe that the local media do a great job of cultivating this region's interest in major-league baseball, for which the Twins should be grateful.

Of all the folks covering this team, there might not be anyone who does it better than Phil Mackey. Despite being a full-time radio host for ESPN-1500 who's not yet 30 years old, Mackey dominates the Twins beat, feeding hungry fans a wealth of inside information and flavoring his analysis with equal parts stat-savvy and digestibility.

He's gained a lot of credibility within the fan base – a fan base that has been starved for positives after an absolutely miserable first third of the season. So when Mackey boldly predicted a division title 10 days ago with two words, "It's happening," a meme was born.

Fans readily clung to the hopeful message. As the team kept winning – six straight after his initial tweet – P-Mac cultivated his catchphrase, dropping the #ItsHappening hash tag after nearly every break that went the Twins' way and maintaining his shtick with Patrick Reusse on their mid-day talk show.

Now, I'm hearing from fans everywhere that "It's Happening." The radio station has created a website dedicated to the phrase, where they've already got t-shirts printed up for sale. Fellow media types and even players on the team have latched onto the newly hatched slogan.

I suspect Mackey, a whiz with numbers, is fully cognizant that after a catastrophic first two months the Twins' odds of making the playoffs remain jarringly slim; that they'd have to overcome significant flaws and win at a higher rate than any club in baseball has up to this point in order to take the division (barring complete meltdowns from every other AL Central contender).

But he saw an opportunity to create a storyline that fans could embrace, and they have done just that. Mackey's lifelong affinity for pro wrestling sometimes shows through; I suspect that's why he makes for such a compelling radio host.

Even if it's often put forth with a twinge of sarcasm by P-Mac and others, the catchphrase – or, more accurately, the attitude behind it – is taking over Twins Territory, despite losses the past two days. We've seen this club erase some pretty major deficits over the years, and they gradually seem to be moving back toward full health. After moving eight games closer to first place in just a few weeks, anything seems possible. People are ready to believe.

Myself? I certainly want to believe. I've enjoyed the heck out of this month's run, but I'm also not blinded by it. The rotation won't keep chugging along like this forever, and while Michael Cuddyer is on a ridiculous tear there are a lot of problems with this offense.

Having said that, there's no denying that the Twins have put themselves back in the picture and retaken control of their fate. They trail three teams in the division, but they've got a lot of games left against those teams. If they're up to the challenge, the path is laid out for one of the most dramatic comebacks in baseball history. Several things need to happen in order for that challenge to be met, and next week I'll write about some of those things.

All in all, I'm digging the optimism and hope that have reinvigorated the fan base. Twins baseball is fun again. Nevertheless, I could do without the hackneyed "It's Happening" slogan for a while -- at least until Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau shows a pulse.

Here We Go Again...

2011-06-22T00:00:00.001-05:00

When Michael Cuddyer whipped out his first baseman's mitt after Justin Morneau took a seemingly minor blow to the head last July, he hardly could have guessed he'd be wearing it every day for the rest of the season.

Will it be a similar story this year for Ben Revere?

The 23-year-old prospect, on the roster for a second stint this year due to a rash of injuries, took center field on June 7 with Span complaining of concussion symptoms stemming from an innocuous-looking collision at home plate a few days earlier.

With the exception of one game, in which he played left while Jason Repko manned center, Revere has been Minnesota's center fielder ever since.

In a brief radio interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, Span -- who had just finished a light workout at Target Field -- sounded despondent. Asked to guess when he might return to the lineup, he stumbled for words before settling on the All-Star break, an answer he sounded none too confident in.

The center fielder can hardly be blamed for his demeanor given the stark similarities between his predicament and the one that faced his teammate a year ago.

Much like Span, Morneau was amidst an outstanding campaign before taking a knock to the head while running the bases hard. Neither injury was initially deemed serious -- Span even played and batted third against the Indians three days after running into Royals catcher Brayan Pena -- but Morneau ended up missing the rest of his season and Span has missed two weeks with no return in sight.

To listen to Span describing his symptoms, you'd almost think he was reading Morneau quotes from last year's newspapers. In his downtime, he experiences no issues, but when he steps up his activity and tries to get on the field and work out, on come the headaches and dizziness.

Players like Cuddyer and Revere deserve a lot of credit for stepping up and helping the team win in spite of these significant losses, but Morneau and Span are both extremely likable players and key cogs in the lineup. It's hard -- for the team, for the fans, and especially for those two competitive spirits.

I'm very hopeful that Span can shake these issues and hit his targeted return date, because he's fun to watch and some advanced statistics had him pegged as one of the league's most valuable players over the first two months of the season.

However, as I assess his situation, I can't help but think of Morneau, who is approaching the one-year anniversary of his concussion and to this point still has not been able to bounce back.

Three-Bagger: Winning, Mauer's Grounders & No Power

2011-06-20T00:00:00.003-05:00

* The Twins are smoking hot. As horribly as everything went in April and May, June has been a charmed month. The starting pitching has been absolutely phenomenal (the team has allowed zero or one run in five of its past seven), and the offense -- even with disappointing initial returns from Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Joe Mauer -- has been productive, thanks largely to heightened contributions from role players.

The Twins have won seven straight and 14 out of their last 16, yet they still are tied with Kansas City for the fewest wins in the American League. That should tell you something about how brutal those first two months were.

As I said a week ago, a steep uphill climb remains, and the schedule will grow tougher in the coming weeks. But the Twins have at least put themselves in a position where a run at contention seems feasible, and for that fans must be very grateful.

* Mauer returned to the Twins this weekend, and while it was nice to see him play all three games and push Butera/Rivera out of the lineup twice, I'm not going to feel fully confident in him until he stops hitting the ball on the ground constantly.

The underlying issue in Mauer's dreadful start to the season (.235/.289/.265 with one extra-base hit in 38 plate appearances) was a sky-high GB rate. He grounded out multiple times in all three games over the weekend, and his only hit was a bouncer up the middle in his first at-bat on Friday.

Presently, 70 percent of balls put in play by the catcher this year have been grounders. Derek Jeter's 65 percent rate leads all qualifying players.

* The Twins haven't hit for much power this year and that runs through the entire organization. We're approaching the season's halfway point and Trevor Plouffe leads the system in home runs, with 11. Yes, Trevor Plouffe.

The Return of Mauer

2011-06-17T00:07:00.001-05:00

At long last, Joe Mauer is set to make his return to the Twins' lineup tonight. Sidelined since April 12, the franchise centerpiece is expected to bat third and start at catcher against the Padres.

While I have no doubt that Mauer will receive a very positive reception from the crowd at Target Field, I wouldn't be surprised to hear a few boo birds mixed in with the predominant cheers. There are folks out there, even among the media and perhaps within the organization, who are legitimately angry with Mauer over this whole ordeal.

Such a reaction strikes me as irrational, yet understandable.

Confusion breeds anger, and there's been no shortage of confusion surrounding the ailment that has cost Joe Mauer nearly half of his 2011 season. In a press conference held yesterday to address the catcher's lengthy absence, Bill Smith gave the following convoluted, nonsensical description:

In its simplest form, bilateral leg weakness means he had weakness in both legs. The majority of that was due to the knee surgery he had in December, and if you take the extremes much further, to bilateral leg weakness, there’s a lot of very challenging results that can happen.

Ah, well then.

As with almost everything we've heard from Twins officials with regards to Mauer's injury, this quote doesn't actually tell us a thing. We get that Mauer had weak legs. We get that it was related to his offseason knee surgery. What we don't get is why a 28-year-old premier athlete needed seven months to get his legs back under him after a procedure that was deemed minor.

Now we wait apprehensively to see how his legs react to the rigors of regular catching after a nebulous rehab, and wonder whether he'll be able to recapture the explosiveness that followed his last extended layoff (he posted a 1.338 OPS with 11 homers in May of 2009 after missing all of March and April).

A similar explosion right off the bat seems unlikely. As Buster Olney noted earlier this week, Ron Gardenhire has "cautioned against immediate expectations."

Fortunately, the team's recent winning run takes a world of pressure of Mauer's shoulders. If the Twins were still slumping, fans would be yearning for him to gallop in like a white knight and singlehandedly reverse the club's fortunes.

With the starting pitching starting to click, the bullpen avoiding meltdowns (at least for the time being) and some key role players finally beginning to do their parts, all Mauer needs to do is come in and outhit the likes of Drew Butera and Rene Rivera, which he should be able to do handily even if he exhibits some initial rust and fatigue.

Respawning the Piranhas

2011-06-15T00:00:00.001-05:00

The White Sox are back in town.

Over the past handful of years, that's been music to the ears of baseball fans in Minnesota. Since 2008, the Twins are 21-6 at home against the Sox. Ozzie Guillen often lamented his team's hex at the Metrodome (where they hadn't posted a winning record since 2005), and Target Field has – up to this point – not proven much friendlier.

Baseball is a random game where few things can be relied upon, but success for the Twins when facing the South Siders on their own turf has been one of them.

Will that continue to be the case this year? Rain has delayed the latest chapter of this classic rivalry, which figures to get underway tonight. It seems an appropriate time to gauge each club.

At present, the Twins and White Sox both find themselves in unfamiliar and undesirable territory: the bottom.

Chicago has gradually recovered from its miserable 14-23 start, winning 19 of 31 to move within two games of .500.

The Twins, on the other hand, saw their early drought carry on longer and have experienced a more rapid correction, with nine wins in their past 11 games. They remain 13 games under .500, but will look to continue their march toward respectability this week against Chicago.

Prior to the season, most people expected the Tigers, White Sox and Twins to battle for the AL Central crown. With the latter two climbing steadily while the Indians free-fall (they've dropped 11 of their last 15), we may be seeing the cream rise to the top.

But Detroit isn't going away, so these are critical games for the teams set to compete at Target Field tonight and tomorrow. With Alexi Casilla and Ben Revere setting the tone for the offense (and Tsuyoshi Nishioka likely to be activated for tonight's game), the Twins will employ a speed-based, small-ball approach that prompted Ozzie Guillen to token the "piranhas" nickname several years ago.

If the Twins can effectively implement this game plan and win, as they have consistently over the past couple weeks, we can expect plenty of effuse praise for the scrappy bunch from Ron Gardenhire. And Guillen, of course.

Too Many Strikes

2011-06-14T00:00:00.002-05:00

In baseball, as in life, things aren't always black-and-white.

For example, throwing strikes and limiting walks is generally a good thing for a pitcher. Yet, there is such a thing as throwing too many strikes, and I think we're seeing it from Matt Capps.

The Twins' closer has faced 111 batters this season and walked only two of them. His minuscule walk rate of 0.6 BB/9IP ranks as the lowest in the majors, edging Kyle Farnsworth, who's at 0.8 (what?). Capps has thrown 70 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Pounding the zone has helped the right-hander limit base runners, as evidenced by a stellar 0.93 WHIP. On the flip side, though, he's not fooling anybody. Hitters know what to expect and come to the plate ready to swing and make contact. Capps' strikeout rate has sunk to a career-low 5.5 K/9IP, and it's very tough for a closer to succeed with so few whiffs.

Capps has a good fastball, but he's throwing it 84 percent of the time and almost always over the plate. He's become too predictable, which has enabled hitters to jump on him for five home runs (one short of his total in 73 innings last year).

From my perspective, he needs to start working out of the zone a bit more often to keep hitters honest, making the opposite adjustment of Francisco Liriano. If he can cut down on the hard-hit balls and induce a few more strikeouts, Capps actually figures to be very successful in the second half.

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Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's Minnesota Twins Vintage World Series DVD contest. The three names drawn were: Casey Bresnahan, Matthew Beyer and Mark Dasovic.

Thanks to everyone who submitted their name, especially those of you who included a nice personal note. I'll try and run another giveaway soon.

If you didn't win but are still interested in the DVD, you can check it out here.

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Joe Mauer is hitting the Batting Cages with eyes on returning later this week. Can he help fuel the Twins' turnaround?

The Long Road

2011-06-13T00:00:00.003-05:00

"Stuff" is one of my favorite baseball terms. On the surface it seems so rudimentary, yet it's used by scribes, players, coaches, scouts and fans alike. There really is no synonym. While the word in its general usage is as ambiguous as they come, its usage in baseball is acutely specific. You know what it is when you see it. Stuff is what makes the great pitchers great.

Francisco Liriano is one of those hurlers who has always been gifted with incredible stuff. When he first unleashed it on the major leagues back in 2006, hitters were blown away. Despite being just 22, Liriano struck out 144 batters while allowing only 89 hits in 121 innings. It was one of the most dominating rookie performances in memory.

The electricity of Liriano's arm has never been in question, only his ability to keep it running and control its current.

He short-circuited late in that sensational 2006 campaign, with a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. We all know how many tribulations have been encountered on the long road back, but through it all Liriano's stuff endured; he continued to throw the ball past hitters even at times when his body ached and his control disappeared (most notably in a 2009 campaign where he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA but still managed 122 whiffs in 136 innings).

Last season, things finally came together for Liriano, for the first time since his injury. He displayed masterful command of the strike zone, averaging only 2.7 walks per nine innings, and his stuff was just about as good as ever. At age 27, he seemed prepared to resume the path he'd embarked upon when he first rose to the majors back in 2006, which was why I strongly advocated for a contract extension during the offseason.

Of course, I didn't anticipate that Liriano would forget how to throw strikes over the offseason. From the moment he showed up to camp this year, he was a mess, racking up huge pitch counts while struggling to find the zone with even half his offerings. Over his first seven starts this year (including the no-hitter), Liriano walked 27 batters in 35 2/3 innings while throwing just 55 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Ever since the no-hitter, though, Liriano has been pitching with increased confidence, and yesterday at Target Field he appeared to turn a corner. Finally, he looked every bit as dominant as he did when at his best last year, or even in 2006. Facing off against a dangerous Texas lineup, the southpaw attacked the zone with authority, making almost every hitter he faced look hopelessly overmatched.

There was no luck involved with Liriano's no-hit bid, which was broken up by an Adrian Beltre single in the eighth. All afternoon, the Rangers flailed hopelessly at Liriano's darting fastballs and devastating sliders. Through the first seven innings, seemingly every Texas at-bat ended with a strikeout or a weakly tapped grounder.

In two starts since returning from the disabled list, the left-hander has now allowed two runs (one earned), five hits and three walks in 13 innings while striking out 16. It took a while, but finally he seems to be getting back on track.

The same can be said for the Twins, who have now won nine of their last 11, trimming their deficit in the AL Central to single digits for the first time since early May.

With a bevy of key players set to come off the disabled list this week, interleague play (which they've traditionally dominated) approaching, and plenty of home games on the docket, the Twins have to be feeling a whole lot better about their chances than they they did just a couple short weeks ago.

With that said, they've still got a long way to go. In spite of their impressive hot streak, they still have the fewest wins of any AL team, and must pass four clubs to get to the top of the division. Even with the rotation showing significant improvement and the lineup incrementally returning to full strength, that will be a tall task for a team with ingrained flaws.

One thing is for sure, though: their odds will be much, much better if Liriano can keep throwing the ball like he did at Target Field yesterday. Suddenly, this team has an ace again.

Good stuff.

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A&E Home Entertainment has kindly provided three copies of The Minnesota Twins Vintage World Series Films DVD to give out to readers of the blog. If you're interested, drop me a line at nels2807@gmail.com by 5 pm on Monday with your name in the subject line and I'll include you in a drawing. Great gift for pops with Father's Day approaching.

"Just Leave Delmon Alone"

2011-06-09T00:00:00.002-05:00

All season long, Delmon Young has been costing the Twins runs with his bat and with his glove. As we enter the middle of June, the outfielder is batting .219/.250/.271 and has fewer extra-base hits than Drew Butera. His defense in left field has been reprehensible, as another muffed play that reeked of poor effort led to the decisive run in Tuesday night's loss.

Yet, for some reason, Ron Gardenhire has been hugely reluctant to mess with Young's routine in any way. The manager's decision to use noodle-armed Ben Revere in right field while sticking with Young in left prior to Denard Span's injury flew in the face of sheer logic, but Gardy provided the following rationalization:

"Not to mess with Delmon more than anything else,'' Gardenhire said of his reason for leaving Young in left. "He's got his hands full in left, so we'll keep him working out there and not trying to mess with his mind any more. We're trying to get him hitting. I think if you start switching him in the outfield, he's got something else he's got to worry about. So just leave Delmon alone."

OK, so what about using Young at designated hitter, so he can focus completely on hitting and stop sabotaging the team's pitchers?

Nope.

"Delmon's not really too excited about DH-ing," Gardenhire said. "He's been working really hard in the outfield, trying to get better. He feels a lot more comfortable playing, and I respect that."

Despite the fact that he's literally been one of the worst players in all of baseball this year, Young continues to not only start every day, but hit fifth in the lineup and dictate where he plays in the field.

If Young had a long track record of success, or was showing gradual improvement, or even if he was considered a staple in the clubhouse, I might understand the manager's tact. None of these things are true. Why is he being coddled while Trevor Plouffe is being demoted after making bad throws and Danny Valencia is being benched for multiple games when his bat goes cold?

This doesn't qualify as a season-opening slump anymore. We're coming up on the halfway point in the season and Young's OPS continues to hover around .500, which is staggeringly bad for a plodding corner outfielder.

Gardenhire needs to start worrying less about disrupting the rhythm of a player who is currently amidst the worst slump of his entire career, and more about the overall well-being of this Twins team, which is trying desperately to scrape its way back into contention.

If Young has so much on his mind, perhaps some time off from playing (or, as I've suggested, a change of scenery) would be the best course of action. Leaving Delmon alone has done a lot more harm than good.

Revere's Audition

2011-06-08T00:29:00.003-05:00

Before spring training got underway, I wrote about Ben Revere and the possibility that he could see extended time at the big-league level early on this season. At the time, Justin Morneau's status was very much in doubt, and I suggested that if the team had to play without their first baseman, Revere could be brought up to help take the load off outfielders Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Delmon Young and Jason Repko with Michael Cuddyer shifting to first.

As it turns out, Morneau has been able to avoid the disabled list, but Kubel, Young and Repko have not, so Revere presently finds himself in his second stint with the Twins this year. If Span's current bout with headaches and dizziness forces him to the DL, the door could open wider than ever for Revere, who would figure to get prolonged looks in center field and the leadoff spot.

Revere's flaws are readily apparent, and they're not likely to go away. At 5'9" and 170 pounds, he can't generate any power with his bat or with his arm.

In the outfield, he's got one of the weakest arms you will ever witness in the majors. Meanwhile, he hit only five home runs in 1,654 minor-league plate appearances and has collected one extra base hit in 90 trips to the dish as a big-leaguer.

But, both in the field and at the plate, Revere's blazing speed helps offset his weaknesses. His range in the outfield is good enough that he's an asset defensively in spite of the popgun. On offense, while he may rarely get himself past first base with his bat, he makes up for it by wreaking havoc once he's aboard. He swiped 154 bags in 380 minor-league games and ranks third on the Twins with three steals this year despite having played in only 21 games.

The key for Revere -- one that will make-or-break him as a big-league starter -- is his ability to get on base. He's never drawn a ton of walks so his OBP will likely always be reliant on his batting average. Fortunately, he has never had any trouble hitting for average.

Despite never having the luxury of repeating a level, the 23-year-old has hit .300 or better at each stop in the minors. With his tremendous quickness out of the box, his high contact rate and his ability to spray line drives, there's little reason to believe he can't carry this trait over to the big leagues once he acclimates (he is, in fact, currently on a 10-game hitting streak).

Of course, even if he can sustain a .300 average in the majors, Revere is going to have to learn how to draw at least a moderate number of walks in order to become a true offensive weapon.

In both Single-A and Double-A, he was able to OBP in the .370 range, which made him a legitimate asset at the top of the lineup. Yet, with his walk rate above those levels (only eight free passes in 231 plate appearances between Triple-A and the majors), he'd need a batting average of .330 or .340 to get on base at that clip.

I think the best we can realistically hope for in the long run is that Revere can become a guy who catches everything in the outfield (either in LF or CF), and routinely hits .300 with an OBP in the .350 range and a healthy number of steals. While this wouldn't make him a star, he'd be a very serviceable starter and, while earning the league minimum for the next few years, he'd give the Twins more flexibility elsewhere.

Here's hoping that Revere can show signs of becoming that player during this audition period.

Three-Bagger: Draft, Lineups & Gatherings

2011-06-07T01:44:00.004-05:00

* The first round of Major League Baseball's amateur entry draft took place yesterday, and the Twins were the 30th team to pick, by virtue of their tremendous 2010 campaign. Rather than selecting a college pitcher or high school position player, as they have with their first pick in each of the past 14 drafts, the Twins nabbed University of Carolina shortstop Levi Michael.

I haven't spent as much time studying the draft crop this year as I usually do, so I was only familiar with a handful of prospects and Michael was not one of them. From what I gather, he's a switch-hitting junior who's improved his stock over the course of his collegiate career.

It's nice to see the Twins break from their routine and bring in a polished player at a position of severe organization weakness. I've seen Michael's upside compared to Brian Roberts. To be honest, though, based on what I've read, it's pretty difficult to get enthused about the kid.

From the MLB.com scouting report:

Every Draft class has a crop of college middle infielders that is interesting, if not overwhelmingly exciting. Michael has improved over the past couple of years, moving himself to close to the top of this year's class of college hitters who play up the middle.

He can hit from both sides of the plate and, though he is more of a gap-to-gap guy, has gotten stronger and shown a little more pop this season.

When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine -- or as a utility type who can fill in at shortstop and not be a detriment.

It may not sound like the most exciting combination of tools, but it should be enough to be gone in the first 60 picks.

"Average arm"? "Hands work just fine"? "Utility type"? These are not descriptors one likes to read for a first-round pick. Fortunately, Baseball America paints a slightly better picture:

Michael was a solid high school prospect in Lexington, N.C., but he graduated early in order to join the Tar Heels for the 2009 season. He has played a new position each season, moving from second base as a freshman to third base as a sophomore, before settling in at shortstop this year. He's been a reliable defender at all three spots, and scouts are warming up to the idea that he could stay at shortstop at the pro level. He missed a couple of games with an ankle injury and was still getting back to 100 percent, but he still showed ability in all facets of the game and was hitting .311/.461/.464 with 14 stolen bases in 15 attempts in 196 at-bats. He is a patient hitter with a good eye for the strike zone from both sides of the plate, with a 43-27 walk-strikeout ratio. He hits to all fields and could hit at the top of the batting order, though he shows pop and is naturally stronger from the right side. He's an above-average runner, though he hadn't quite returned to that level since the injury. Scouts don't view the ankle as a long-term concern. Defensively, he has good actions and enough arm strength for shortstop. The only concern is his range, but he'll get every chance to prove himself before potentially sliding to second base.

I want to believe the Twins got their guy. Then I read quotes like this one from scouting director Deron Johnson: "Picking No. 30, it's just whomever is left."

Indeed.

The Twins made two more selections yesterday, utilizing the sandwich picks they received as compensation for the free agent departures of Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain. Those were used on Travis Harrison, a high school third baseman from California with considerable power potential (my favorite pick of the day), and Hudson Boyd, a right-handed high school pitcher from Ft. Myers.

The first-round results from this organization's past few drafts have been iffy (at least until Aaron Hicks and Alex Wimmers can get things turned around), but they've still made enough solid picks over the years that I'm willing to trust their judgment. They really need some of these picks to pan out.

* Ron Gardenhire's lineup last night was an interesting one, which featured Denard Span somewhere other than the leadoff spot for the first time since he was a rookie in 2008. Taking over in the one-spot was Ben Revere, who has seen his bat heat up in early June.

I applaud Gardy for the creativity, even if it didn't pay dividends. Revere and Span combined to go 1-for-8, but the bottom part of the order keyed a 6-4 victory, the club's fifth straight.

Noticeably absent from last night's lineup card was Danny Valencia, who had started each of the team's first 58 games. The sophomore hasn't hit all that well, but he's at least been in the lineup every day and deserves credit for that.

* I had a lot of fun at Friday night's TwinsCentric Viewing Party at Smalley's 87 Club downtown. Turnout was great, especially considering how late the event actually came together and how crummy the Twins have been. Most importantly, we helped Lindsay Guentzel raise a bunch of money for the Leukemia and Lymphona Society; big ups to Lindsay for her outstanding work for this deserving cause.

I also picked up one of the latest offerings from the apparel gurus over at DiamondCentric (progenitors of the famed "Thome Is My Homey" t-shirt, among countless others). Titled "Game Six," the design commemorates one of the greatest moments in franchise history, with a silhouette of Kirby Puckett pumping his fist next to the numbers 1991. It's printed on a high-quality triblend material that you can wear out as well as to games. In fact, this shirt has instantly become the nicest article of clothing I own, and I plan to be married in it one day. (OK, I'm kidding, but it's seriously a damn comfy shirt.)

At $20, Game Six is a must-own for Puckett fans all over. Make sure to check out the rest of DiamondCentric's unique Twins apparel as well.

Give Plouffe a Chance

2011-06-03T00:00:00.000-05:00

One opportunity that a team gains in a lost season is being able to take an extended look at young players without fear of meaningful damage from rookie hiccups. Yet, despite the total lack of shortstop depth within their system, the Twins seem to have no interest in giving Trevor Plouffe a legitimate shot.

Plouffe had a streak of six straight games started at shortstop in mid-May end with a remarkably poor performance against the Mariners. In the contest, a 10-inning loss at Target Field, the young infielder went 0-for-5 and made several ugly plays in the field, heavily contributing to his team's demise.

Ron Gardenhire berated Plouffe after the game and then buried him on the bench. The shortstop started only two of the next nine games (looking rattled when on the field) and last night he was optioned to Triple-A so the Twins could call up Brian Dinkelman, whose upside is about as exciting as his name.

To be clear, I'm no huge Plouffe fan. That's a big part of the reason I was baffled by the Twins leaving him as their only legitimate backup behind Alexi Casilla entering the season. He's nothing special as a hitter and obviously he's got some accuracy issues with his arm.

But he's also a former first-round pick, and a guy who was really tearing it up in Triple-A before being called up. While he batted only .210 in his 71 plate appearances with the Twins, he did hit three homers, and his .383 slugging percentage was the best of any player on the active roster. Yes, he looked shaky at times, but he's a 24-year-old playing in the bigs and desperate to impress a coaching staff he let down in spring training. Danny Valencia was struggling to adjust to Triple-A when he was the same age.

Plouffe might not be a major-league shortstop, but he probably resembles one more closely than anybody else the Twins can trot out there at this point. He's already played close to three seasons in Rochester. It's time to see what he's got.

I simply don't see the harm in saying, "Trevor is our starting shortstop and we're going to let him battle through the yips," as opposed to banishing him and giving playing time to guys like Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert, who have had far more opportunity to prove they are not MLB shortstops.

Dead Weight

2011-05-31T23:57:00.002-05:00

Yesterday, I wrote about the early struggles of Justin Morneau. On cue, the first baseman popped off for two home runs agains the Tigers last night, doubling his season total.

Figuring I'd try and run this string out, I asked Twitter which struggling player they wanted me to write about today. The most popular answers were "bullpen" and "everyone," but among individual players the name I saw most was Delmon Young.

OK, fine, I'll write about Young. But I won't enjoy it. I'm bored with him. Can't bring myself to care about him anymore.

He lopes around apathetically in the outfield. He was a bad defender when he actually seemed to care; now he's basically unplayable out there (though Ron Gardenhire continues to trot him out daily anyway).

At the plate, Young seems similarly disinterested. Despite being a 25-year-old fresh off a breakout season, he has inexplicably turned into one of the league's worst hitters. A third of the way through through the campaign, Young has hit one home run, driven in 11, and posted a lower OPS than such sluggers as Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes and Rene Rivera.

He's striking out once every five at-bats, and when he puts the ball in play it's typically on a weak, defensive swing early in the count. The fire that burned within Young last year, when he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 runs, has not been seen since.

On top of the lackadaisical performance, there's the external drama that habitually follows him around. Young wasted a spot on the 25-man roster for over a week in April while holding himself out of the lineup with an oblique injury, then when he was finally allegedly ready to play, he said he couldn't get loose on a cold night. The Twins immediately moved him to the DL, where he remained for almost two weeks beyond being eligible to return. What?

Seems clear we didn't get the whole story there, but whatever. I don't care anymore. Young has made himself about as unlikable as possible to fans and media members with his abrasively unpleasant personality, and now that his level of play has followed suit there's just not much reason to want him around.

I know his value is about as low as can get, but I'd still like to see the Twins move him and give him a change of scenery. Let Ben Revere play the rest of the season in left. He's got a much better shot at playing into the team's future plans, and he actually plays like he wants to be out there.

That's what fans pay to see.

Morneau's Early Struggles

2011-05-31T01:20:00.002-05:00

With 52 games in the books, the Twins are approaching the one-third mark in their 162-game regular season schedule. It seems an appropriate time to check in on the player we expected to be the team's top individual storyline in the early part of the season: Justin Morneau.

The good news is that Morneau has been able to play. He's started all but seven of the Twins' games over the first two months, and is on pace to make over 600 plate appearances.

Sadly, the good news pretty much stops there. While Ron Gardenhire has continued to trot him out at the cleanup spot based on his past reputation as an elite power-hitting run producer, Morneau is hitting just .242 with a .626 OPS. He has managed two homers and 17 RBI while hitting .186 with runners on base. His performance thus far would put him in line for less than 10 home runs and 55 RBI in a full-season workload, which would obviously represent the worst production of his career by a pretty wide margin.

Obviously, something is wrong with the former MVP. The pertinent questions are what and why.

Studying him from afar this season, my observation is that his reactions seem to have dulled. Razor-sharp reflexes, forged in part through years of deflecting screaming pucks as a hockey goalie, were a principal strength for the slugger prior to last year's season-ending concussion. They've been conspicuously amiss this year.

It's shown in the field; while he's still competent out there he's not the defensive asset he once was. Hard grounders he used to snare routinely have escaped his reach, and we've seen him scoop far fewer low throws than in the past despite lousy infielders giving him ample opportunity.

It's also shown at the plate, and that's been more troubling. If the Twins are to return to contention next year they're going to need Morneau mashing and up to this point he's not shown that he has it in him.

It's not that Morneau looks completely overmatched at the plate. He's not striking out a ton, which is encouraging and indicates that his hand-eye coordination remains intact. The problem is his pitch selection. He's swinging at way too many balls outside of the zone -- a career-high 33.9 percent, according to FanGraphs.

Pitchers have adjusted and are offering fewer strikes -- 41.5 percent, lowest rate of his career -- but Morneau has been unable to adjust. He's walked in only 5.6 percent of his plate appearances this year, which is bordering on Delmon Young territory.

The first baseman is simply chasing too often, and while he's making contact at a solid rate, it just isn't the same kind of authoritative contact we've grown accustomed to seeing from him. He's trying to pull too many outside pitches, golfing for too many low breaking balls. Late on heaters, early on offspeed. He just isn't reading the ball well.

His natural talent has allowed him to stay afloat in spite of these issues (Morneau is actually hitting .289 over his last 20 games) but until his pitch recognition improves he won't return to being the dominant force he was prior to injury.

I'll check in on Morneau again after another third of the season has gone by, and hopefully by then he'll have shown the kind of improvement that suggests his immense early struggles have merely been the result of rust from a prolonged layoff. I prefer not to think about the alternative.

It can hardly be ~~understated~~ overstated how important Morneau's ability to find his old form is to this team's future.

Three-Bagger: Posey, Home Cooking & Killer

2011-05-27T00:00:00.000-05:00

* San Francisco's Buster Posey was crushed in a home plate collision on Wednesday night, and yesterday it was revealed that the catcher sustained a broken bone and sprained ligaments in his leg. It's a very sad situation for the 24-year-old star, who will miss the rest of the season and face a difficult rehab.

This is the second time in the past year we've seen a top young catcher suffer a catastrophic leg injury in a collision (last year Carlos Santana of the Indians, himself 24, busted his knee up on a similar play). It's also another tally against the logic of keeping Joe Mauer at catcher. On top of the exerting routine for his already battered legs, Mauer is at increased risk for this type of mishap as long as he's behind the plate.

While he's been able to avoid any major incidents up to this point in his career, Mauer has hung in there and taken his hits. Disastrous situations like the ones experienced by Santana and Posey have to weigh on the minds of Twins brass as they contemplate their $184 million investment.

* After falling to the Mariners 3-0 on Wednesday afternoon, the Twins dropped to 5-13 at Target Field this season. They've been outscored by 49 runs in 18 home games. Many have pointed to the team's home-heavy remaining schedule as a beacon of light, but the team has actually played worse in front of their own fans than on the road.

This is a shocking development for a franchise that has historically excelled at home . The Twins were notorious for their unique advantage in the Metrodome years and they carried that right over to Target Field last year, posting the league's best home record at 53-28.

You have to go back to the year 2000 to find the last time the Twins were under .500 at home. That team failed to win 70 games.

* The Twins haven't hit many home runs at Target Field this year, but last night's tribute to Harmon Killebrew certainly qualifies as one. Kudos to the organization for a classy memorial commemorating the man who embodies Twins history. Killebrew retired 10 years before I was born and I never had the chance to meet him, but his reputation speaks for itself. I can honestly say I don't think I've ever heard a negative thing about him from anyone who encountered him. That's pretty rare.

Killebrew is a big reason why, even in these darkest of times, I am proud to call myself a Twins fan. May he rest in peace.

The Wrong Call

2011-05-26T00:00:00.016-05:00

After Ron Gardenhire announced early in spring training that Brian Duensing would be a member of the starting rotation, I expressed my disagreement with the decision. Unsurprisingly, this wasn't a popular stance; the lefty had done outstanding work after shifting from the bullpen to the rotation in two straight seasons, including a 7-2 record and 3.08 ERA as a starter in a 2010 campaign that earned him a spot in the playoff rotation.

In the early March post, I pointed out that Duensing had benefited from a very lucky .275 BABIP last year, and that coming out of the bullpen would maximize his greatest asset -- pitching against lefties -- while minimizing his greatest weakness -- pitching against righties. My conclusion:

As a reliever, he would provide the Twins with an established commodity in a bullpen that lacks many. He'd be able to fully utilize his dominance against lefty swingers rather than facing starting lineups stacked with righties. And, should one of the five other starters get injured or fail to cut it, he'd be available to step into the rotation, as he's done successfully in each of the past two seasons.

Instead, assuming everyone stays healthy, the Twins will opt to either potentially weaken the bullpen by asking Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn to pitch in relief -- something none of them have experience doing -- or weaken their starting pitching depth by trading one of those three.

Sure enough, while Duensing has been solid out of the rotation, he hasn't been able to replicate his sterling results from 2009 and 2010. One part of the problem is that his batted ball luck has gone in the opposite direction; he entered yesterday's start against the Mariners with a .331 BABIP. More importantly, though, Duensing has predictably struggled with increased exposure to right-handed hitters, who were hitting .315/.386/.496 against him over his first eight starts before driving in two runs in a 3-0 Mariners victory at Target Field yesterday.

Duensing has continued to excel against lefties, holding them to a .633 OPS with a 9-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he hasn't had the opportunity to face them all that often. If he were pitching out of the bullpen, he would see port-siders more frequently while also providing a proven weapon to a relief corps that is currently devoid of reliable options.

It's looking like the Twins made the wrong call here (broken record, I know). There's little question that they'd be in better shape right now with Kevin Slowey starting and Duensing serving in a high-leverage bullpen role. It's not too late to correct this problem, as Slowey could be whipped into starting shape with a couple outings in Rochester and Duensing could replace either Dusty Hughes or Phil Dumatrait in the bullpen, instantly upgrading the unit dramatically.

Instead, I suspect the Twins will stick with their awful bullpen and trade Slowey for pennies on the dollar while Duensing continues to get knocked around by righty hitters.

Like I said on Monday, the Twins seem more interested these days in compounding their mistakes than correcting them, which is why fans have every right to be completely fed up with the way this team is being run.

The Slowey Saga

2011-05-25T00:10:00.002-05:00

It would appear that Kevin Slowey's days in Minnesota are numbered.

We can glean from the article linked above that the right-hander has asked for a trade. It hardly comes as a surprise; Slowey has sulked all season about his role in the bullpen, and there are no rotation vacancies on the visible horizon.

Clearly, the Twins are fed up with the Slowey. He has rarely been available this season, overcome by a variety of ailments relating to the transition from starter to reliever. His act comes off as pouty and self-centered, leading to widespread criticism. Jim Souhan labeled him a "selfish, excuse-making malcontent" and the Twins broadcasters ripped him at length during Monday night's telecast.

Then again, Slowey also can't be blamed for wanting out. His behavior might seem selfish, but frankly it's not hard to understand what's brought him to this point. There has long been friction between player and organization.

I've repeatedly had reporters covering the team tell me that, like others who have been dealt away before him, Slowey's personality doesn't seem to mesh with the Twins' expectations. The team has done little to hide its lack of affinity.

While he had his inconsistencies last year in his return from a fairly significant wrist surgery, the righty still won 13 games and posted a 4.48 ERA. Yet, he was a healthy scratch from the Twins' playoff roster. I figured that was the last straw, predicting that he'd be traded during the offseason.

Turns out I jumped the gun. The Twins signed Carl Pavano for $16 million over the winter despite having five starters, and naturally Slowey was the odd man out despite posting a 1.69 ERA in spring training that was the best of any rotation candidate. And, even though they seemingly had their minds made up from the beginning, the Twins still conditioned Slowey as a starter right up until the end of March, then basically said, "Nice job starting the last few years, but we like some other guys better, now go and be a setup man because we let all the other ones walk during the offseason so we could sign your replacement."

At age 27 and now a full year removed from surgery, Slowey was looking to re-establish himself as a quality MLB starter this season. Instead, he's battling through injuries to try and throw long relief for baseball's worst club, and watching his earning potential plummet in the meantime.

Is Slowey putting himself before the team? Yes, but then again, it's a really bad team and an organization that hasn't exactly shown much fondness toward him.

He's a good pitcher who had an unfortunate wrist injury and never got his fair shake here. Assuming he's on his way out, I wish Slowey the best wherever he ends up. All I can do now is hope like hell that the Twins aren't shooting themselves in the foot by being forced to sell so low on him.

Rebuilding the Bullpen

2011-05-23T00:00:00.004-05:00

Some people don't seem to recognize what an integral factor the Twins' spectacular bullpen was in their success last year. Even with Joe Nathan gone for the entire season and Jose Mijares gone for much of it, the relief corps was one of the most effective in memory.

That group simply did not give up leads. The 2010 Twins lost only twice when they took a lead into the ninth inning; only three times when they took a lead into the eighth inning. They went 75-5 when they entered the seventh with a lead. That's quite the testament to a bullpen which, while somewhat amorphous and not terribly flashy, consistently got the job done.

The front office's gutting of the unit during the offseason has yielded the expect results: the Twins aren't getting much relief from their bullpen this year. Already the team has lost six games after entering the seventh inning with a lead.

Twins' relievers have posted a rather dreadful 89-to-67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 131 2/3 innings this year, so it should come as no surprise that they've allowed 141 hits with a 5.33 ERA. No bullpen under Ron Gardenhire has ever had more hits allowed than innings pitched, but this year's group seems a good bet to break that trend.

Sadly, things are getting worse instead of better. Glen Perkins, quite literally the lone bright spot in an abysmal unit, strained his oblique over the weekend and will be out for close to a month. He was the only Twins' reliever who had made more than six appearances and posted an ERA below five; if you take his 1.59 ERA over 22 2/3 innings out of the equation, the bullpen's overall mark sits at 6.11. Yikes.

On the bright side, the Twins' crappy relief pitching won't have a chance to derail their season, as team-wide failures over the first two months have already effectively accomplished that feat. In addition, the team's lack of competitiveness should deter Bill Smith from dealing away more valuable assets for overrated "closers."

For the remainder of this season, the focus should be on auditioning relievers within the organization in an effort to determine who might be able to play a significant role in next year's pen (and beyond). So far, the Twins are doing it wrong. With Perkins and Mijares hitting the disabled list in recent days, the team has called up Phil Dumatrait, a 29-year-old with a 6.95 career ERA in the majors who had issued 11 walks in 15 2/3 innings at Triple-A, and Dusty Hughes, who had been demoted earlier this year after posting a 10.13 ERA in 12 appearances for the Twins.

Hughes and Dumatrait are both almost 30, and have established through a lengthy track record that they're not very good. Yet, the Twins opt to call them up and subject fans to their known mediocrity rather than taking a look at an intriguing player like Chuck James, Carlos Gutierrez, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop or even the Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond.

There's no guarantee that any of those guys will prove to be credible MLB relievers, but they've all shown some level of promise in the minors, so why not give them a shot? The luxury of a season like this is that it enables a "trial by fire" approach for borderline prospects, and if they plan on a quick return to contention the Twins could benefit from seeing what they really have in some of these arms.

Even in terms of winning games now, calling on players like Dumatrait and Hughes is odd. Frankly, it only seems like an effort to justify the bad decisions of signing them and/or placing them on the 40-man roster to begin with.

It's what frustrates me most about this front office lately: they tend to compound their mistakes rather than correcting them.

Right at Home

2011-05-20T00:30:00.000-05:00

Perkins is nasty.

That's not a critique of my favorite late-night breakfast haunt, it's a commentary on the performance of Twins' reliever Glen Perkins, whose emergence as a reliable setup man has stood out as one of the team's few bright spots this year.

I certainly didn't see it coming. Entering this season, Perkins had a 4.81 career ERA and 1.44 WHIP -- not the kind of numbers that scream "late-inning relief." Over the past three years, he had allowed 332 hits in 269 innings.

The 2010 season was a tumultuous one for Perkins, who toiled his way to a 4-9 record and 5.81 ERA in Rochester. He didn't fare any better during his time in Minnesota, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 2/3 big-league innings.

Yet, the Twins' coaching staff saw something they liked in the southpaw while he worked out of the bullpen as a September call-up, enough so that they tendered him a contract and essentially guaranteed him a spot in this year's renovated relief corps.

Perkins jumped out to a fast, yet unsustainable, start for the Twins. Over his first nine appearances, he allowed no runs on five hits over nine frames but struck out only three of the 31 batters he faced. The lefty's success in spite of an abysmal 10-percent K-rate came on the wings of a .192 BABIP, and even if your name's Mariano Rivera you don't sustain a sub-.200 BABIP.

Perkins' luck was bound to catch up with him, and it has. In 10 appearances since, he has a .400 BABIP. Yet he has continued to excel, with a 1.42 ERA and .615 opponents' OPS during that span, thanks to a huge spike in punch-outs. In those 10 appearances, Perkins has fanned 18 of 50 hitters. That's more than one out of every three.

Perkins, a former first-round pick, was considered a top prospect while coming up through the minors but it's sometimes been hard to tell while watching him work out of the major-league rotation. As a starter, he's battled injuries and mostly survived as a left-handed junk-baller. But Perkins seems to have found a home in the bullpen, where his fastball has elevated to the mid-90s and his confidence continues to grow.

The success has prompted some Twins fans to wonder whether a return to the rotation might be in order, but make no mistake: Perkins is right where he needs to be. The Twins deserve credit for figuring that out, even if it it took a few years to do so.