Presenting the 2009 Trade Deadline Primer!

I haven't been speculating much about possible deadline acquisitions on this blog. That's because I've been focusing all my attention in that regard on this project, which is available for sale as of today. A group of local bloggers that includes John Bonnes, Seth Stohs and Parker Hageman brainstormed the idea to put together a comprehensive guide to the deadline geared strictly toward Twins fans, and asked me to become a chief contributor. It struck me as a great idea, so I hopped right aboard.

This is very much an experimental effort, but I'm pretty happy with the way it turned out. There's a ton of information packed into this eBook, and the varying writing styles of the different contributors gives the overall product a distinct attitude and flare. The Primer will allow you not only to familiarize yourself with any possible courses of action the Twins might take within the next couple weeks, but also the rest of the 29 major-league teams, which are all covered extensively.

By throwing down $9.95 for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer, not only are you acquiring a top quality guide to one of the baseball season's most exciting periods, but you're also supporting local bloggers who keep working hard to churn out free analysis despite demanding schedules.

If you are a hound for trade rumors and rumblings and love following the action as the deadline heats up, I strongly recommend picking up a copy of this eBook. You won't be disappointed. Seth, John and Parker are great writers and their strong efforts have helped turn this into a product that I'm proud to be attached to.

Even if you choose not to buy a copy, I just wanted to send a big thank you to everyone who stops by and chimes in on the blog. You guys are the best.

With that, I'll end my shameless plug. Enjoy the All-Star break and we'll get back to business later this week.

Holes Without Plugs

The Yankees completed their domination of the Twins yesterday, notching a 6-4 victory to complete a seven-game season sweep of the hometown nine. Most of the games played between these two teams have been close, so I don't know if I'm willing to buy into the notion that the Twins were cowering with fear, but it did seem clear over the span of these seven games that the Yankees were the better team and that the Twins have some clear weaknesses that any good team can exploit.

Somewhat surprisingly, one of those weaknesses was not the bullpen, and has not been for some time. If you take away Brian Duensing's dud performance in long relief during the first game of the series, Twins relievers allowed only one run in 11 1/3 innings this weekend. In general, the unit has been performing better than expected. So that's good.

What's not good is the state of the starting rotation. Francisco Liriano became the latest to be victimized by the Yankees yesterday, as he surrendered six runs (only three earned) over 5 1/3 innings before being forced out at 105 pitches. The Twins' rotation has been wildly inconsistent this year, and for the most part these starters have looked overmatched against quality lineups. Out of the five starters, only Nick Blackburn has really met or exceeded expectations (one could make an argument for Glen Perkins, but he's been hurt quite a bit). The rotation was expected by many to be this team's biggest strength and the one factor that would set them apart from their divisional rivals this season; instead, it has been a massive disappointment.

While the starters have struggled, it's not an area the Twins are likely to seek outside help as the deadline nears. The Twins are going to have to ride these guys down the stretch and hope that Liriano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey can find some consistency and start stringing together quality starts. There's no star pitcher in the minors ready to step in and dominate, and looking for outside help would be costly and somewhat illogical.

One other glaring weakness that was on display this weekend can and should be addressed, though, and that's the No. 2 spot in this lineup. Brendan Harris went 1-for-8 in the spot on Friday and Saturday, and so yesterday Ron Gardenhire astonishingly elected to stick Matt Tolbert and his .183/.273/.230 hitting line in there. Tolbert unsurprisingly did not collect a hit in the spot.

Twins hitters in the two-hole not named Joe Mauer have hit .190/.235/.237 this season. That type of absolutely despicable production decreases the value of Denard Span's great on-base percentage and limits what the 3-5 hitters are able to do, and the fact that Gardenhire's answer to the issue is tossing Tolbert into the spot is incredibly frustrating. Something needs to be done.

Of course, moving Mauer back into the No. 2 spot would be a logical solution, but moving pieces around just creates more holes at the bottom of the lineup. Simply put, the Twins need to find a competent hitter to fill at least one of their middle infield positions. Whether that comes in the form of a prospect like Steve Tolleson or Luke Hughes, or in the form of an external acquisition, it needs to happen. This is becoming intolerable.

Now back at .500, the Twins will try to avoid limping into the All-Star break by putting something together this weekend against the White Sox.

Can't Win 'Em All

... Or any of them, apparently, if the Yankees are the opponent. The Twins fell to 0-6 on the season against the Bombers last night despite the best efforts of Joe Mauer, who went 3-for-5 with a homer, a double and two RBI. No one else in the Twins lineup could seem to come through with a big hit, and the Twins suffered another tough loss that set them back in the standings with the Tigers and White Sox both winning.

Anthony Swarzak, who was originally scheduled to pitch the series finale today, was pressed into early duty last night with Glen Perkins ill. Swarzak looked predictably overmatched against the Yankees, coughing up four runs on eight hits and a walk while failing to strike out a batter over 4 1/3 innings. Bobby Keppel relieved Swarzak and delivered yet another fine performance, tossing 3 2/3 scoreless innings to keep the game within reach for the Twins. Unfortunately, his best efforts went to waste as the Twins were unable to come back against the Yanks.

These last couple games have been tough to watch. Not just because the Twins have not at any point even held a lead, but because the Yankees hitters have repeatedly put together long at-bats and caused innings to drag on. One night after forcing Scott Baker to throw 86 pitches in 3+ innings, the Yanks forced Swarzak to throw 91 pitches in 4 1/3 frames in last night's contest. I'm not saying the Yankees hitters are committing some sort of atrocity, since obviously this strategy has proven quite effective over the past couple nights; but, from the perspective of a spectator cheering for the opposing team, it's awfully annoying.

The Twins will try to avoid a season sweep today with Francisco Liriano on the mound. Given that Liriano has struggled with high pitch counts on several occasions this year, I'm not particularly optimistic about his chances to last deep into the ballgame, but hopefully the boys can find a way to win.

Checking In On Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan was selected to the AL All-Star team this year for the fourth time in six seasons since coming over to the Minnesota Twins. While it has gone unnoticed by many, Nathan is actually having a dazzling season and he's been especially effective as of late.

In 35 appearances this year, Nathan has notched 22 saves while posting a 1.35 ERA and 43-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 33 1/3 innings. He has posted a ridiculous 0.75 WHIP, which would stand as the best figure of his career, and is holding opposing hitters to a .157 batting average.

In his past 19 appearances, Nathan has pitched 18 2/3 innings and allowed zero runs, seven hits and two walks. He's struck out 28 during that span, and gone a perfect 16-for-16 in save opportunities. That's really about as close to perfect as a relief pitcher can possibly be.

Particularly encouraging are Nathan's strikeout numbers this year. Take a look at this K-rate trends since his first year as Twins closer:

Year (Age): K/9 IP

2004 (29): 11.1

2005 (30): 12.1

2006 (31): 12.5

2007 (32): 9.7

2008 (33): 9.8

2009 (34): 11.6

The dip in strikeout rate over the past couple years seemed to indicate that Nathan was losing a bit of his stuff as he moved into his 30s. That's hardly abnormal and far from disastrous, but still a bit troubling as far as his future outlook is concerned. This year, Nathan has ramped his strikeout rate back up to an elite level and as a result hitters are struggling to reach base against him more than ever.

When the Twins handed Nathan a four-year contract extension prior to last season, many fans grumbled, reasoning that his annual average of $11.75 million was too much money to give a reliever likely to throw more than 70 innings per year. I was always very supportive of the move. Nathan's value as a stable rock at the back end of the Twins' fluctuating and sometimes maddeningly inconsistent bullpen is tough to quantify. But I'll try anyway...

In spite of its ineffectiveness at times this season, the Twins bullpen still ranks fourth in the AL with a 3.76 ERA. If you remove Nathan's contributions, Twins' relievers have combined for a 4.16 ERA -- that'd rank 10th in the league. With the exception of Matt Guerrier (who has also had a sneaky great season), no Twins reliever other than Nathan has a WHIP lower than 1.32.

Nathan currently stands 33 saves short of Rick Aguilera, the Twins' all-time leader in that category. He almost certainly won't get there this year, but barring injury, by the time he finishes his current contract he will almost undoubtedly be reputed as the greatest Twins closer of all time (if he's not already).

Catching Up

Hey all. I'm just going to try and get caught up with some quick thoughts today. I've been insanely busy lately, for reasons I will explain soon.

* The All-Star rosters were announced this weekend, and the Twins' representatives came as no surprise. Joe Mauer, who was voted in overwhelmingly by the fans, will serve as the AL's starting catcher. Meanwhile, Justin Morneau was selected as a backup at first base and Joe Nathan as a member of the bullpen. These three players are all having All-Star caliber years and are basically the only players on the Twins roster who are (with the possible exception of Nick Blackburn), so I've got no grudges with the All-Star selecting process as far as Twins players are concerned.

* Speaking of Blackburn, he tossed his third complete game of the season on Sunday in the Twins' finale against Detroit, and is now sitting with a phenomenal 2.94 ERA (sixth in the AL) over 116 1/3 innings of work (fifth in the AL). With his low strikeout rates and non-elite ground ball rates, Blackburn seemed like a candidate to regress this season, but he continues to confound statisticians and is soundly outperforming his 4.92 xFIP.

I'm not a diehard Sabermetric guy and I'm certainly willing to accept that there are certain things about Blackburn's game that could consistently allow him to get better results than some normally accurate statistics would predict. He has demonstrated quite clearly that when he's on he can hit his spots at will and I think he has a fantastic ability to keep hitters off balance by changing speeds and keeping the ball away from the center of the plate. He won't continue to hold opposing batters to a .192/.257/.283 line with runners in scoring position and I don't think he'll maintain a sub-3 ERA from here on out, but obviously he's been a tremendously pleasant surprise this season and certainly don't think his success is a giant mirage.

* The Twins have been quite active in the international signing arena this year, and I couldn't be more pleased. Jorge Arangure, a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine who tracks international players and signings, reported via his Twitter account the Twins have signed switch-hitting Dominican shortstop Jorge Polanco with a sizable $700K bonus, and Ben Badler of Baseball America reported that the Twins have tabbed 16-year-old German outfielder Max Kepler, who has been touted as the best prospect to come out of Europe this year. One scout (quoted in the linked article) stated definitely that Kepler is "the toolsiest kid we've ever had in Europe." Sounds like a good find.

The Twins were also reportedly one of a handful of teams in on Miguel Angel Sano, a (purportedly) 16-year-old shortstop who is widely considered the top international prospect available this season and who is likely to sign for up to $4 million. It sounds now like they've fallen out of the race -- likely in no small part because of the two signings mentioned above -- but their pursuit of him in conjunction with those two relatively big-money signings is extremely encouraging. Given their disadvantage in the domestic free agent market, I've always felt the Twins should try to be a bit more aggressive in signing top foreign talent.

* How was Joe Mauer not the unanimous winner of the catcher spot in the All-Star balloting recently conducted among ESPN's "top baseball minds"? Did Keith Law get five votes?

Prospect Rundown: June

With another month in the books, it's time to check in on our Top Ten Prospects and see how they performed in the month of June and where they are at overall.

10. Steve Tolleson (AAA): .310/.375/.431, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 20 R, 3/5 SB
(Season Totals: .286/.362/.414, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 42 R, 9/13 SB)

When we checked in on Tolleson last month, he had just been promoted to Rochester after putting together some stellar May numbers in New Britain. His first month at the Triple-A level was another successful one, as Tolleson hit for a strong average while displaying solid discipline at the dish. With his solid on-base skills, decent speed and ability to play the middle infield, Tolleson is quickly emerging as a second base option for the big-league club.

9. Angel Morales (A): .140/.204/.220, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 2/2 SB
(Season Totals: .210/.280/.376, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 30 R, 6/9 SB)

After a poor first month, Morales seemed to have gotten himself back on track in May, but the 19-year-old had a very tough month in June. He was limited to just 16 games and 50 at-bats by injury, and when he was in the lineup he was highly ineffective, managing just seven hits and four walks while whiffing 16 times.

8. Shooter Hunt (GCL): 8 IP, 0-1, 1.13 ERA, 5/6 K/BB, 1.37 WHIP
(Season Totals: 25.2 IP, 0-2, 7.71 ERA, 23/39 K/BB, 2.30 WHIP)

After spending much of the month in Extended Spring Training, Hunt moved to rookie-level Gulf Coast League late in June and made two starts there. The GCL is one level below where Hunt started (and dominated) after being drafted last year, so his presence there isn't exactly a great step. While he did allow only five hits and one earned run in his eight innings with the GCL Twins, Hunt's control continued to haunt him and he managed only five strikeouts. He seemingly has a long way to go at this point.

7. Anthony Slama (AA): 15.2 IP, 5 SV, 1.72 ERA, 18/6 K/BB, 1.02 WHIP
(Season Totals: 43.2 IP, 16 SV, 2.47 ERA, 60/22 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP)

While his bullpen colleague advanced to Triple-A, Slama remained in New Britain once again in June. Unsurprisingly, he dominated there, fanning more than a batter per inning while holding opposing hitters to a .189 batting average. Still, he remains trapped at the Double-A level despite being 25 years old and having proven his ability to get people out at this level. His control remains underwhelming, which might be the chief reason the Twins are holding him back, but it's about time we saw what Slama can do at the highest level of minor-league competition.

6. Kevin Mulvey (AAA): 32.1 IP, 1-1, 3.62 ERA, 27/11 K/BB, 1.58 WHIP
(Season Totals: 89.2 IP, 3-4, 3.91 ERA, 73/32 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP)

It was a pretty typical month for Mulvey, with good-but-not-great numbers across the board. He mixed in a pair of excellent outings (a complete game shutout and a seven-inning, one-run performance) with a pair of duds, and overall gave up more hits than you'd like to see.

5. Danny Valencia (AAA): .355/.375/.613, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 0/1 SB
(Season Totals: .293/.373/.498, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 51 R, 0/3 SB)

I concluded my blurb on Valencia last month in this space by saying that he had "effectively proven his mastery of the Double-A level and should be in Rochester by the time I do this write-up next month." Sure enough, despite a bit of a slump earlier in the month, Valencia got his promotion about three weeks into June, and as you can see by the numbers above he has been making the best of it. He's been one of the best stories in the Twins' minor-league system this year.

4. Jose Mijares (MLB): 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4/5 K/BB, 1.89 WHIP
(Season Totals: 23 IP, 2.35 ERA, 18/12 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP)

While his ERA doesn't reflect it, June was not a good month for Mijares. He struggled once again with his control, and the fact that Mijares threw just half as many innings in June as he did in May seems to indicate that the command problems are causing Ron Gardenhire's faith in the left-hander to waiver. Mijares continues to be effective when he gets the ball in the zone, but his inability to do so consistently is becoming a big problem.

3. Ben Revere (A+): .264/.346/.330, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 14 R, 7/9 SB
(Season Totals: .319/.388/.381, 2 HR, 31 RBI, 45 R, 28/40 SB)

Revere had his worst month of the season in June. He managed just a .264 average, which led to a pretty empty hitting line considering his lack of power. Revere continued to show discipline with nine walks and eight strikeouts in the month, but this is the type of thing you have to fear with a guy whose value is based almost totally in his batting average.

2. Wilson Ramos (AA): .400/.415/.675, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB
(Season Totals: .308/.326/.444, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 22 R, 0/0 SB)

Ramos got off to a terrific start in June. In 40 at-bats, he bashed two homers and five doubles while driving in eight runs. Then, he injured his finger on June 12 and missed the rest of the month. While rehabbing from the injury late in the month, he pulled a hamstring and is now likely to miss a few more weeks. Bummer. On the bright side, he's struck out only three times in his past 63 at-bats, which is pretty impressive considering he fanned 103 times at Ft. Myers last year.

1. Aaron Hicks (A): .222/.371/.259, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R, 1/1 SB
(Season Totals: .222/.371/.259, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R, 1/1 SB)

After spending the first two-and-a-half months of the season in Extended Spring Training and giving me nothing to write about in this space, Hicks was finally moved up to Beloit a couple weeks ago. His first nine games there haven't been spectacular, as evidenced by the weak batting average and lack of extra-base hits, but he has shown very good plate discipline. I'd love to see him turn it on in the month of July.

Game Notes

With their 5-1 victory over the Royals yesterday, the Twins sealed a fourth consecutive road series victory and moved two games above .500 for the first time all season. With the Tigers losing in Oakland by the same score, the Twins moved within three games of first place and will have a chance to vault into a first-place tie this weekend, when they face the Tigers at the Metrodome.

Glen Perkins picked up the victory in yesterday's game, though he was none too dominant. The left-hander allowed just one run over seven innings, but did surrender 10 hits while managing only one strikeout. It has been a very up-and-down year for Perkins; he was dominant over his first three starts, fairly wretched over his next five before going on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and has pitched quite well since returning from the DL. This breaks down to some pretty interesting month-by-month splits:

April: 4 starts, 2.48 ERA, 0 HR allowed
May: 4 starts, 10.00 ERA, 6 HR allowed
June: 4 starts, 2.67 ERA, 1 HR allowed

Perkins' shoulder issues cropped up in May so it's pretty easy to excuse his performance during that month; during April and June his results have been fantastic. I don't think Perkins is as good as those April/June numbers suggest, and a fly ball pitcher who strikes out as few batters as he does is bound to hit rough patches even when healthy, but it's hard not to be encouraged but what we've seen from him. All in all, I think Perkins' current .500 record and 4.38 ERA are fairly indicative of the type of pitcher he is, but that's just dandy production from a dirt-cheap No. 5 starter.

Offensively, the Twins were hardly overwhelming but they got the job done. Joe Mauer broke out of his recent mini-slump by reaching base in all five of his plate appearances. Michael Cuddyer ripped his 12th homer and walked twice, and continues to look very much like the 2006 version of himself. The rest of the team was pretty quiet offensively, going just 4-for-31 with zero extra-base hits, which marks a continuation of a disturbing offensive trend for the Twins.

During the nine-game road trip they just completed, the Twins averaged only 4.1 runs per game. That the team still managed a very good 6-3 record during that span is certainly a testament to how well the pitching staff performed, but that type of run production isn't going to cut it going forward. Hopefully the return to the Metrodome this weekend will jolt some life into this offense.