We've heard it all before. Ron Gardenhire says he's receiving reports that Francisco Liriano is "throwing the living fire out of the ball" down in the Domincan Winter League, adding that the left-hander's fastball has been clocked at 92-94 MPH and describing his slider as "filthy." Even as one of Liriano's most stubbornly adamant supporters, I've come to roll my eyes at reports like this by now.
Sure, the DWL statistics (21.2 IP, 0.83 ERA, 27/4 K/BB) support the notion that Liriano is throwing well. Yet, we heard similarly strong reports as Liriano initially worked back from Tommy John surgery prior to the 2008 season, and nevertheless the former phenom came out flat that April. Additionally, there were numerous occasions last year where Twins' coaches would rave about how sharp Liriano looked in his bullpen sessions only to see him come out and struggle mightily on game day.
Liriano, it seems, has become the king of the bullpen session and simulated game. The potential for him to transfer that ability onto the field is a big reason I remain in his corner, but after seeing his extreme inconsistency over the past two seasons, it's tough to build up much confidence in spite of the glowing reports from the Dominican league.
Indeed, the Twins hardly seem convinced that Liriano is the answer for the fifth spot in their rotation, as there are reports that the team has made an offer to veteran lefty Jarrod Washburn to fill that role. This seems pretty illogical to me, given the team's stretched budget and the existence of palatable options even if Liriano once again fails to bring his successful results north. For instance, I'd rather settle for Brian Duensing in the fifth spot than spend several million dollars on Washburn while ignoring the team's infield needs; in fact, "settle" might not be the most appropriate word because I'm not at all convinced that Duensing will be an inferior pitcher to the 35-year-old Washburn in 2010.
Of course, the ideal scenario would be for Liriano to return to the Twins with renewed confidence this spring after a strong showing in winter ball and lock up a spot in the rotation. Liriano's biggest issue last year was a lack of fastball command, so I don't really get too hyped up about the reports surrounding improved velocity (and considering his fastball averaged 91.7 MPH last year, it's not like 92 MPHwould be a particularly significant step up). The fact that he's been limiting walks this winter, though, is far more encouraging, and if that's a trend he can bring back to Minnesota with him then there will be plenty of reason for legitimate optimism.
For now, though, I'm going to stick to a wait-and-see approach. I've been burned too many times already.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
State of the Bullpen
Last week I examined the state of the Twins' starting rotation as we move forward into the new year. Today's post will break down the relief corps.
Early on last season, it appeared that the bullpen would be one of the Twins' greatest downfalls. Arm injuries to Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser had shelved two of the team's most appealing late-inning options for the year, and the team's offseason acquisition aimed at replacing the production of these two -- Luis Ayala -- was looking like an uninspiring option at best as he struggled early on. Meanwhile, Craig Breslow, who'd been one of the team's most reliable relievers in '08, found himself waived in the middle of May after the team grew tired of his inability to put the ball over the plate.
Ultimately, though, the Twins' bullpen settled in and by the end of the year it was actually one of the league's stronger units, finishing fourth in the AL in ERA. It appears that Bill Smith will do little if anything to augment the relief corps this offseason, so by the time spring training rolls around, narrowing down the bullpen will likely be a matter of sorting through the various internal options and settling on the six or seven best candidates.
In looking ahead to the Twins bullpen for the 2010 season, there are some reasons for optimism and also some reasons for serious concern.
The greatest reason for optimism, of course, is the expected return of Neshek. The right-handed setup man missed much of the 2008 season and all of the 2009 season after suffering an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery, but by all accounts he is on track to be at full strength in time for the start of the upcoming campaign. Now, being at full strength doesn't necessarily equate to being at full effectiveness; Neshek has missed a substantial amount of time so a return to his previous form could take some time and very realistically might not happen at all. His obscure delivery, which seemingly puts additional strain on the elbow, further complicates matters. If the effects of Neshek's injury cause him to become timid in his delivery or cause him to alter his approach entirely, he'll likely need additional time to get comfortable and gain full command of his pitches.
With all that being said, anyone who watched the team during the 2006 and 2007 seasons know what a crucial contributor Neshek can be in the back end of the bullpen and he's had plenty of time to recovery from surgery. So while he shouldn't necessarily be counted on, especially early in the year, there's plenty of reason to hope he can be a useful piece for the Twins in 2010.
Looking beyond Neshek, there are a couple other hurlers who might be able to provide additional help for the Twins bullpen in the upcoming season even if Smith continues to leave that area unaddressed. Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney, two of the organization's most accomplished minor league relievers, both finished the '09 season in Triple-A, so both will be poised to step in at the major-league level at any time this year. They might even be able to compete for jobs in spring training. If either of these historically dominant right-handers -- Slama in particular -- can carry his outstanding minor-league performance to the big stage, they could serve as a serious boon to a bullpen that is currently lacking in power arms.
Yet, despite the solid potential for reinforcements, there are plenty of reasons to be worried about the bullpen as we look forward. Unlike others, I'm not particularly concerned about Joe Nathan. I think the cries of despair regarding his late-season struggles were hugely overblown; it's not remotely uncommon for hard-throwing relievers to wear down a bit late in the season and Nathan was just one of many elite closers who melted down in the October last year.
I am, however, somewhat concerned about the two men who spent much of the season setting Nathan up. Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier were both exceptional overall last year, but a closer inspection of their underlying numbers and trends leads me to wonder whether they'll be able to replicate those performances as we move forward.
Mijares saw his strong rookie campaign come to a rather discouraging close. Even beyond the well publicized drubbing he took in the clubhouse after losing his temper and causing teammate Delmon Young to get beaned in a late-season game, Mijares looked downright hittable and seemed to lack confidence on the field as the year came to a close. Moreover, his manager displayed decreased confidence in him. Ron Gardenhire showed a very quick hook with Mijares as the season winded down, allowing him to record two or fewer outs in each of his final seven appearances (Mijares had recorded at least three outs in 63 percent of his appearances prior) and the lefty was removed before recording a single out in both of his final two regular season appearances. Similarly, Mijares struggled in the postseason, yielding a key home run in Game 2 against the Yankees and walking the only batter he faced in Game 3.
There's no arguing with Mijares' overall results last year -- a 2.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are outstanding numbers for a 24-year-old rookie -- but he finished the season with a clear lack of confidence and that could be a problem if it carries forward into next year, particularly considering his historical problems with control (both on and off the field).
Guerrier, meanwhile, possesses his own set of question marks. The righty bounced back brilliantly from a disastrous 2008 season by posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while serving as one of the league's most reliable setup men. Yet, the same concerns continue to exist surrounding his extreme usage. Guerrier led the AL in relief appearances for a second straight season last year, and while the heavy usage didn't produce the same clear negative late-season effects that it has in the past, he did cough up three homers in his final six appearances of the regular season and one wonders how his arm will hold up in the coming campaign. On top of that, Guerrier's outstanding numbers last year were buoyed by a .214 batting average on balls in play. His career average in that category is .273 and his previous career low was .250, so once his luck inevitably starts to even out it could lead to significant regression.
In general, the bullpen picture is unclear at this point. We know that, barring injury, Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain will be there. The remaining spot(s) will be up for grabs among a group that is likely to include Slama, Delaney, Bobby Keppel and whatever starters miss out on a rotation spot. All in all, that seems like a group with pretty solid upside, but with very real potential to struggle.
Early on last season, it appeared that the bullpen would be one of the Twins' greatest downfalls. Arm injuries to Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser had shelved two of the team's most appealing late-inning options for the year, and the team's offseason acquisition aimed at replacing the production of these two -- Luis Ayala -- was looking like an uninspiring option at best as he struggled early on. Meanwhile, Craig Breslow, who'd been one of the team's most reliable relievers in '08, found himself waived in the middle of May after the team grew tired of his inability to put the ball over the plate.
Ultimately, though, the Twins' bullpen settled in and by the end of the year it was actually one of the league's stronger units, finishing fourth in the AL in ERA. It appears that Bill Smith will do little if anything to augment the relief corps this offseason, so by the time spring training rolls around, narrowing down the bullpen will likely be a matter of sorting through the various internal options and settling on the six or seven best candidates.
In looking ahead to the Twins bullpen for the 2010 season, there are some reasons for optimism and also some reasons for serious concern.
The greatest reason for optimism, of course, is the expected return of Neshek. The right-handed setup man missed much of the 2008 season and all of the 2009 season after suffering an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery, but by all accounts he is on track to be at full strength in time for the start of the upcoming campaign. Now, being at full strength doesn't necessarily equate to being at full effectiveness; Neshek has missed a substantial amount of time so a return to his previous form could take some time and very realistically might not happen at all. His obscure delivery, which seemingly puts additional strain on the elbow, further complicates matters. If the effects of Neshek's injury cause him to become timid in his delivery or cause him to alter his approach entirely, he'll likely need additional time to get comfortable and gain full command of his pitches.
With all that being said, anyone who watched the team during the 2006 and 2007 seasons know what a crucial contributor Neshek can be in the back end of the bullpen and he's had plenty of time to recovery from surgery. So while he shouldn't necessarily be counted on, especially early in the year, there's plenty of reason to hope he can be a useful piece for the Twins in 2010.
Looking beyond Neshek, there are a couple other hurlers who might be able to provide additional help for the Twins bullpen in the upcoming season even if Smith continues to leave that area unaddressed. Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney, two of the organization's most accomplished minor league relievers, both finished the '09 season in Triple-A, so both will be poised to step in at the major-league level at any time this year. They might even be able to compete for jobs in spring training. If either of these historically dominant right-handers -- Slama in particular -- can carry his outstanding minor-league performance to the big stage, they could serve as a serious boon to a bullpen that is currently lacking in power arms.
Yet, despite the solid potential for reinforcements, there are plenty of reasons to be worried about the bullpen as we look forward. Unlike others, I'm not particularly concerned about Joe Nathan. I think the cries of despair regarding his late-season struggles were hugely overblown; it's not remotely uncommon for hard-throwing relievers to wear down a bit late in the season and Nathan was just one of many elite closers who melted down in the October last year.
I am, however, somewhat concerned about the two men who spent much of the season setting Nathan up. Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier were both exceptional overall last year, but a closer inspection of their underlying numbers and trends leads me to wonder whether they'll be able to replicate those performances as we move forward.
Mijares saw his strong rookie campaign come to a rather discouraging close. Even beyond the well publicized drubbing he took in the clubhouse after losing his temper and causing teammate Delmon Young to get beaned in a late-season game, Mijares looked downright hittable and seemed to lack confidence on the field as the year came to a close. Moreover, his manager displayed decreased confidence in him. Ron Gardenhire showed a very quick hook with Mijares as the season winded down, allowing him to record two or fewer outs in each of his final seven appearances (Mijares had recorded at least three outs in 63 percent of his appearances prior) and the lefty was removed before recording a single out in both of his final two regular season appearances. Similarly, Mijares struggled in the postseason, yielding a key home run in Game 2 against the Yankees and walking the only batter he faced in Game 3.
There's no arguing with Mijares' overall results last year -- a 2.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are outstanding numbers for a 24-year-old rookie -- but he finished the season with a clear lack of confidence and that could be a problem if it carries forward into next year, particularly considering his historical problems with control (both on and off the field).
Guerrier, meanwhile, possesses his own set of question marks. The righty bounced back brilliantly from a disastrous 2008 season by posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while serving as one of the league's most reliable setup men. Yet, the same concerns continue to exist surrounding his extreme usage. Guerrier led the AL in relief appearances for a second straight season last year, and while the heavy usage didn't produce the same clear negative late-season effects that it has in the past, he did cough up three homers in his final six appearances of the regular season and one wonders how his arm will hold up in the coming campaign. On top of that, Guerrier's outstanding numbers last year were buoyed by a .214 batting average on balls in play. His career average in that category is .273 and his previous career low was .250, so once his luck inevitably starts to even out it could lead to significant regression.
In general, the bullpen picture is unclear at this point. We know that, barring injury, Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain will be there. The remaining spot(s) will be up for grabs among a group that is likely to include Slama, Delaney, Bobby Keppel and whatever starters miss out on a rotation spot. All in all, that seems like a group with pretty solid upside, but with very real potential to struggle.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
State of the Rotation
It goes without saying that the starting rotation was one of the most disappointing units on the Twins last season. After the upstart and inexperienced group of young hurlers had come together and helped carry the team to the brink of a postseason berth in 2008, many expected only better things in '09 as the five matured and learned from experience.
Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned. Injuries and ineffectiveness derailed the rotation this past season, and ultimately starting pitching was one of the club's biggest flaws for much of the year as the Twins struggled to stay above the .500 mark.
This big drop-off left many fans yearning for Bill Smith to make meaningful improvements to the starting pitching corps during the offseason; yet, as we prepare to flip our calendars to the new year, the Twins' GM has not made one single external addition at the position. In fact, so far all he's done is remove starting pitching depth, dealing away a potential starting option in Boof Bonser.
Nevertheless, the Twins seem relatively well positioned in the rotation as we look forward to the upcoming season. One key move that Smith did make was offering Carl Pavano arbitration. Failing to find intriguing offers on the free agent market, Pavano and his agent decided to accept the offer, thus ensuring that the August acquisition will figure into the team's plans next year.
With Pavano locked up and Kevin Slowey ready to return from a wrist injury that cost him much of his '09 season, we essentially know how the top four spots in the Twins' rotation are going to shape up:
1. Scott Baker
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Carl Pavano
4. Nick Blackburn
It's not a bad top four. Baker, Slowey and Pavano all basically fall into the same mold: strike-throwing right-handers who post respectable K-rate and are extremely stingy with walks, but will generally allow a fairly high number of hits and homers. Those are good guys to have around, and any one of them is capable of posting a sub-4 ERA, but none are particularly likely to be an ace-caliber performer. And if the hit or home run rates get out of hand for any of them, they could be in for a tough year. Of the three, Slowey likely has the greatest upside given his youth, his outstanding K/BB ratios and his spectacular minor-league track record, but he was inconsistent last year even before going down with an injury so he has much to prove. Blackburn, of course, is a high-contact middle-of-the-rotation guy who has held his own through two big-league seasons but lacks significant upside.
With those four in place, the Twins are left with one spot to fill. While it's conceivable that Smith could go out and find another starter via free agency or trade, it seems somewhat unlikely at this point. The Twins have a handful of guys who could compete for the last spot in the rotation, but given that the four already in place are all right-handed I suspect they'll look to fill that final slot with a southpaw. There are currently three main contenders: Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing.
It is widely believed that Perkins will be moved before this offseason is over, and I'm inclined to agree with that train of thought. Duensing became a crucial contributor down the stretch last year after stepping into a starting role, which likely gives him the advantage over Liriano, who struggled all year long. Of course, considering that none of the four right-handers already entrenched seem to have legitimate top-end potential (with the possible exception of Slowey), Liriano remains an intriguing option since he was throwing like an ace as recently as the second half of 2008.
Right now it seems most likely that the Twins will enter spring training with an open competition for that fifth spot. Liriano and Duensing are shaping up as the main contenders, but if Perkins is still around he'd certainly be in the mix and if the Twins decide they don't care about having a southpaw in the rotation then Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship could have a shot as well. If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Duensing will probably open the season in the rotation with Liriano in the bullpen and the rest in the minors (or another organization). But spring training is still a long ways off and there's plenty of time for Smith and the Twins to try and add more clarity to what currently looks like a jumbled picture at the bottom of the rotation.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
The Waiting Game
General managers across the American League have been relatively busy reconfiguring their teams for the 2010 season. Of particular note are Brian Cashman and Jack Zduriencik, the respective GMs of the Yankees and Mariners, who have both been quite impressive up to this point in the offseason. Cashman has reinforced the roster of the defending World Series champs by bringing in Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez in trades that most analysts viewed as lopsided in favor of the Yankees. Meanwhile, Zduriencik has seeked to build on his team's 24-win improvement during his first year as GM by adding Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins. Earlier this week, the M's dealt underperforming former top prospect Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for Brandon League in a deal that puzzled many but that I liked given that I've long coveted League.
Meanwhile, Bill Smith and the Twins have been awfully silent. Since making a big early splash by trading Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy just a couple days after the World Series, the Twins have been relatively inactive, with the only noteworthy moves coming in the form of an arbitration offer to Carl Pavano (which was accepted) and a minor trade that sent Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a low-level pitching prospect.
Seeing rival GMs wheel and deal while Smith has remained in the shadows has irked a number of Twins fans, but the reality is that the Twins are probably playing this the right way. Despite the number of significant trades that have gone down, the free agent market has remained stagnant. Several options at positions of need -- including Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre -- are still out there, and it seems like agents and teams are waiting for a few early contracts to set the tone before they start hammering out deals. The Twins probably don't have a lot of financial flexibility left to sign additional players, and they almost certainly can't afford to meet the current demands of guys like DeRosa and Beltre. Yet, as time goes by, the prices will only drop. The same is true for potential trades.
I'm not suggesting that the Twins once again wait until late February when the only remaining option is a hobbled and desperate Joe Crede before they start seriously investigating solutions to their infield holes, but fans should show a bit more patience with the front office. Waiting is the right strategy for the time being.
Meanwhile, Bill Smith and the Twins have been awfully silent. Since making a big early splash by trading Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy just a couple days after the World Series, the Twins have been relatively inactive, with the only noteworthy moves coming in the form of an arbitration offer to Carl Pavano (which was accepted) and a minor trade that sent Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a low-level pitching prospect.
Seeing rival GMs wheel and deal while Smith has remained in the shadows has irked a number of Twins fans, but the reality is that the Twins are probably playing this the right way. Despite the number of significant trades that have gone down, the free agent market has remained stagnant. Several options at positions of need -- including Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre -- are still out there, and it seems like agents and teams are waiting for a few early contracts to set the tone before they start hammering out deals. The Twins probably don't have a lot of financial flexibility left to sign additional players, and they almost certainly can't afford to meet the current demands of guys like DeRosa and Beltre. Yet, as time goes by, the prices will only drop. The same is true for potential trades.
I'm not suggesting that the Twins once again wait until late February when the only remaining option is a hobbled and desperate Joe Crede before they start seriously investigating solutions to their infield holes, but fans should show a bit more patience with the front office. Waiting is the right strategy for the time being.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Turning the Tables
Flash back two years, to the winter following the 2007 season.
Just one year removed from capturing the AL pennant, the Detroit Tigers were boldly making their move. During the winter meetings, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal with the Marlins that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Motown in return for a gaudy package of prospects highlighted by Cameron Maybin and Adam Miller. The move came just shortly after Dombrowski had acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves for a pair of quality pitching prospects.
The Tigers were moving cheap, promising players for established commodities, and were showing little concern with the financial repercussions. A busy offseason for Dombrowski ballooned his team's payroll from $95 million in 2007 to $138 million 2008, positioning them as the highest-spending club in baseball outside of the Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Twins' 07/08 offseason consisted of trading away the league's best pitcher and letting one of their core hitters and clubhouse anchors walk. In both instances, the players were deemed too expensive for the Twins to retain on their limited budget. Despite a few second-tier free agent signings, the Twins saw their budget shrink from $71 million in '07 to $56 million in '08, dropping them into the bottom third of all MLB teams in terms of payroll.
Flash back to present. The Tigers, who fell just a game short of the playoffs this season, are amidst an epic firesale. They shipped off one of their core offensive players in Curtis Granderson and a key starter in Edwin Jackson, fresh off a breakout year. They were forced to let key contributor Placido Polanco walk and weren't even able to offer theType A free agent arbitration and collect valuable draft picks because they couldn't afford the risk of having to pay him several million dollars in 2010 should he accept. There are rumors that the Tigers still aren't done shedding salary, with names like Cabrera and Justin Verlander continuing to spring up in trade speculation.
The nation's economic downturn has hit Detroit hard, and its formerly free-spending baseball club is feeling the effects.
Things look significantly brighter here in Minnesota.
The Twins have ramped up spending recently at an unprecedented level. I wrote last week about how the organization has displayed a dramatic increase in willingness to open the wallet over the past year, whether on the international market (Miguel Angel Sano), in the draft (Kyle Gibson), on players acquired via trade mid-season (Jon Rauch/Orlando Cabrera/Carl Pavano/etc.) or offseason moves (J.J. Hardy/Pavano). In its most recent display of fiscal freedom, the Twins elected to tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. That includes Jesse Crain, who is in his final year of arbitration and could make close to $3 million after earning $1.7 million this past season. The Twins would have had every excuse to non-tender Crain, given that he's coming off a rather unexceptional year and spending several million dollars on someone who figures to be -- at best -- the third or fourth right-handed option out of the bullpen is a luxury that in the past they've shied away from. Yet, Crain possesses solid upside for next year considering his strong finish this season (2.20 ERA in August/September) and his being almost two years removed from shoulder surgery. That he's seemingly being brought back bodes well.
The Twins' payroll is already approaching $100 million, a notion that seemed borderline absurd on Opening Day this season when that figure sat at $65 million. Even with the big increase in spending that we've already seen, the Twins still claim to have interest in signing another infielder. They also still have yet to work out a new contract for Joe Mauer, which many (including myself) believe they will do before spring training opens next year.
So, the Twins are taking on salary, spending big on international talent, going over-slot to sign draft picks, and likely are on the verge of doling out one of the biggest contracts in league history to retain their star player? All while the rest of the division is pawning off expensive stars and selling out the present for the future in order to cut costs? Is this some sort of parallel universe?
Longtime fans from around these parts can be excused for reacting with some confusion, but what we're seeing are the benefits associated with the move to a new park. I'd posit that these drastic increases may also be attributable in part to a less frugal philosophy held by ownership now that power has shifted from Carl Pohlad -- who passed away early this year -- to his sons.
Whatever the combination of causes, this new situation is a sweet one for Twins fans, and one we've never really experienced before. The Twins still fall far short of the truly big-market clubs, but they're now beginning to resemble a team that can hold its own when it comes to acquiring and retaining talent. This might not put an enormous dent in the disadvantage the Twins feel when trying to measure up to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world, but it puts them in excellent position in an AL Central division where at least three teams are pretty clearly in rebuilding mode.
Right before our eyes, we're seeing the transformation of a franchise. Long known as the division's "Little Engine That Could," the Twins are beginning to emerge as financial heavyweights in the AL Central. As the holidays approach, now seems as apt a time as any for fans to appreciate this unfamiliar feeling.
Just one year removed from capturing the AL pennant, the Detroit Tigers were boldly making their move. During the winter meetings, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal with the Marlins that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Motown in return for a gaudy package of prospects highlighted by Cameron Maybin and Adam Miller. The move came just shortly after Dombrowski had acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves for a pair of quality pitching prospects.
The Tigers were moving cheap, promising players for established commodities, and were showing little concern with the financial repercussions. A busy offseason for Dombrowski ballooned his team's payroll from $95 million in 2007 to $138 million 2008, positioning them as the highest-spending club in baseball outside of the Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Twins' 07/08 offseason consisted of trading away the league's best pitcher and letting one of their core hitters and clubhouse anchors walk. In both instances, the players were deemed too expensive for the Twins to retain on their limited budget. Despite a few second-tier free agent signings, the Twins saw their budget shrink from $71 million in '07 to $56 million in '08, dropping them into the bottom third of all MLB teams in terms of payroll.
Flash back to present. The Tigers, who fell just a game short of the playoffs this season, are amidst an epic firesale. They shipped off one of their core offensive players in Curtis Granderson and a key starter in Edwin Jackson, fresh off a breakout year. They were forced to let key contributor Placido Polanco walk and weren't even able to offer theType A free agent arbitration and collect valuable draft picks because they couldn't afford the risk of having to pay him several million dollars in 2010 should he accept. There are rumors that the Tigers still aren't done shedding salary, with names like Cabrera and Justin Verlander continuing to spring up in trade speculation.
The nation's economic downturn has hit Detroit hard, and its formerly free-spending baseball club is feeling the effects.
Things look significantly brighter here in Minnesota.
The Twins have ramped up spending recently at an unprecedented level. I wrote last week about how the organization has displayed a dramatic increase in willingness to open the wallet over the past year, whether on the international market (Miguel Angel Sano), in the draft (Kyle Gibson), on players acquired via trade mid-season (Jon Rauch/Orlando Cabrera/Carl Pavano/etc.) or offseason moves (J.J. Hardy/Pavano). In its most recent display of fiscal freedom, the Twins elected to tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. That includes Jesse Crain, who is in his final year of arbitration and could make close to $3 million after earning $1.7 million this past season. The Twins would have had every excuse to non-tender Crain, given that he's coming off a rather unexceptional year and spending several million dollars on someone who figures to be -- at best -- the third or fourth right-handed option out of the bullpen is a luxury that in the past they've shied away from. Yet, Crain possesses solid upside for next year considering his strong finish this season (2.20 ERA in August/September) and his being almost two years removed from shoulder surgery. That he's seemingly being brought back bodes well.
The Twins' payroll is already approaching $100 million, a notion that seemed borderline absurd on Opening Day this season when that figure sat at $65 million. Even with the big increase in spending that we've already seen, the Twins still claim to have interest in signing another infielder. They also still have yet to work out a new contract for Joe Mauer, which many (including myself) believe they will do before spring training opens next year.
So, the Twins are taking on salary, spending big on international talent, going over-slot to sign draft picks, and likely are on the verge of doling out one of the biggest contracts in league history to retain their star player? All while the rest of the division is pawning off expensive stars and selling out the present for the future in order to cut costs? Is this some sort of parallel universe?
Longtime fans from around these parts can be excused for reacting with some confusion, but what we're seeing are the benefits associated with the move to a new park. I'd posit that these drastic increases may also be attributable in part to a less frugal philosophy held by ownership now that power has shifted from Carl Pohlad -- who passed away early this year -- to his sons.
Whatever the combination of causes, this new situation is a sweet one for Twins fans, and one we've never really experienced before. The Twins still fall far short of the truly big-market clubs, but they're now beginning to resemble a team that can hold its own when it comes to acquiring and retaining talent. This might not put an enormous dent in the disadvantage the Twins feel when trying to measure up to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world, but it puts them in excellent position in an AL Central division where at least three teams are pretty clearly in rebuilding mode.
Right before our eyes, we're seeing the transformation of a franchise. Long known as the division's "Little Engine That Could," the Twins are beginning to emerge as financial heavyweights in the AL Central. As the holidays approach, now seems as apt a time as any for fans to appreciate this unfamiliar feeling.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Winter Meetings Wrap-Up
The winter meetings came to a close yesterday without any meaningful activity from the Twins, which is hardly surprising. Last offseason, it took Bill Smith and Co. until February to make any significant moves, so the fact that the team has already addressed two major areas of need by trading for J.J. Hardy and locking up Carl Pavano for another season should help satisfy hot-stove hungry fans.
Despite the slew of moves that took place this week, plenty of intriguing players remain available in free agency and the Twins have been connected to several trade rumors, so there will be plenty of stuff to track in the coming weeks. With that being said, I expect a lull until at least the turn of the new year.
A few more notes to wrap up the week of winter meetings...
* After designating him for assignment earlier this week, the Twins have traded Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a player to be named later. This is good in that the Twins would have gotten nothing in return for losing Bonser had he gone unclaimed and become a free agent this weekend, but the player they ultimately receive from Boston will likely be a low-level prospect with marginal upside.
* The Rule 5 draft took place yesterday. The Twins didn't select any players nor have any poached away in the major-league phase. Twins' farmhands Angelo Sanchez and Winston Marquez were both selected in the minor-league phase of the draft, but neither pitcher is a major loss.
* Finally, I did a Twins-related Q&A this week over at the blog SimonOnSports. You can check that out here.
Despite the slew of moves that took place this week, plenty of intriguing players remain available in free agency and the Twins have been connected to several trade rumors, so there will be plenty of stuff to track in the coming weeks. With that being said, I expect a lull until at least the turn of the new year.
A few more notes to wrap up the week of winter meetings...
* After designating him for assignment earlier this week, the Twins have traded Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a player to be named later. This is good in that the Twins would have gotten nothing in return for losing Bonser had he gone unclaimed and become a free agent this weekend, but the player they ultimately receive from Boston will likely be a low-level prospect with marginal upside.
* The Rule 5 draft took place yesterday. The Twins didn't select any players nor have any poached away in the major-league phase. Twins' farmhands Angelo Sanchez and Winston Marquez were both selected in the minor-league phase of the draft, but neither pitcher is a major loss.
* Finally, I did a Twins-related Q&A this week over at the blog SimonOnSports. You can check that out here.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Finite Resources
Even without external additions, the Twins were in line for a healthy bump in payroll next season, with newly arbitration-eligible players and those already under contract due salary increases. The acquisition of J.J. Hardy and the retainment of Carl Pavano only add to this escalating figure. As Joe Christensen noted on his blog yesterday, the Twins' 2010 payroll is already approaching $90 million, and we're not even halfway through December yet.
With these recent additions (not to mention some in-season trades that brought on extra salary), and with the Twins demonstrating an increased willingness to spend on the international market in the draft, fans might be falling into a false sense of security. The club's move to Target Field certainly jolts their ability to spend -- and that's been made clear by the aforementioned aggression in various avenues -- but it doesn't suddenly turn the Twins into a large-market team. A $90 million payroll in 2010 would already represent an increase of roughly $25 million (nearly 40 percent) over the payroll they sported on Opening Day 2009. That's pretty impressive in its own right, and I'm not sure I'd expect much more in terms of added salary.
In fact, we might already be seeing the Twins making some moves to trim salary in the face of these major increases. Yesterday, in order to make room for Pavano on the 40-man roster, the Twins elected to designate Boof Bonser for assignment. That the Twins decided on the arbitration-eligible Bonser rather than, say, the less expensive and less useful Bobby Keppel, would seem to speak volumes. Bonser, who missed the '09 season after undergoing shoulder surgery but was apparently recovered and ready to pitch in September, has been a frustrating pitcher whose results have never matched the quality of his stuff, but he'd shown promising flashes after moving to the bullpen late in 2008 and it's tough to view this move as anything other than money-driven.
I suspect that the Twins are finished addressing the rotation. There's almost certainly not enough money left to sign an established, reliable starter, and I'm guessing there will be enough suitors for the low-risk/high-reward/injury-prone breed (Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, etc.) that none of them will come particularly cheap. (Although, if any of them do, the Twins have enough depth that they'd in excellent position to take a flier on one.)
Meanwhile, although at least one hole remains in the Twins' infield and several attractive options remain on the market, I'm beginning to lose faith in the notion that the Twins will actively pursue any of these options as I look over the team's financial particulars. The prices for which players like Marco Scutaro and Chone Figgins have signed thus far suggest that quality infielders like Orlando Hudson and Adrian Beltre might be had for relative bargains, but these players are still likely to cost upwards of $5 million annually and I'm just not sure the Twins have that much left to commit, particularly considering that the Joe Mauer situation still needs to be worked out.
At this point, it seems likely that the Twins will either end up snatching a bargain player like Joe Crede later in the offseason, or trading for a relatively inexpensive solution from another club (a package deal for the Padres' Kevin Kouzmanoff built around Glen Perkins would seem to make a lot of sense, for instance). But if you're expecting any big splashes in the high-profile free agent market, you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.
With these recent additions (not to mention some in-season trades that brought on extra salary), and with the Twins demonstrating an increased willingness to spend on the international market in the draft, fans might be falling into a false sense of security. The club's move to Target Field certainly jolts their ability to spend -- and that's been made clear by the aforementioned aggression in various avenues -- but it doesn't suddenly turn the Twins into a large-market team. A $90 million payroll in 2010 would already represent an increase of roughly $25 million (nearly 40 percent) over the payroll they sported on Opening Day 2009. That's pretty impressive in its own right, and I'm not sure I'd expect much more in terms of added salary.
In fact, we might already be seeing the Twins making some moves to trim salary in the face of these major increases. Yesterday, in order to make room for Pavano on the 40-man roster, the Twins elected to designate Boof Bonser for assignment. That the Twins decided on the arbitration-eligible Bonser rather than, say, the less expensive and less useful Bobby Keppel, would seem to speak volumes. Bonser, who missed the '09 season after undergoing shoulder surgery but was apparently recovered and ready to pitch in September, has been a frustrating pitcher whose results have never matched the quality of his stuff, but he'd shown promising flashes after moving to the bullpen late in 2008 and it's tough to view this move as anything other than money-driven.
I suspect that the Twins are finished addressing the rotation. There's almost certainly not enough money left to sign an established, reliable starter, and I'm guessing there will be enough suitors for the low-risk/high-reward/injury-prone breed (Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, etc.) that none of them will come particularly cheap. (Although, if any of them do, the Twins have enough depth that they'd in excellent position to take a flier on one.)
Meanwhile, although at least one hole remains in the Twins' infield and several attractive options remain on the market, I'm beginning to lose faith in the notion that the Twins will actively pursue any of these options as I look over the team's financial particulars. The prices for which players like Marco Scutaro and Chone Figgins have signed thus far suggest that quality infielders like Orlando Hudson and Adrian Beltre might be had for relative bargains, but these players are still likely to cost upwards of $5 million annually and I'm just not sure the Twins have that much left to commit, particularly considering that the Joe Mauer situation still needs to be worked out.
At this point, it seems likely that the Twins will either end up snatching a bargain player like Joe Crede later in the offseason, or trading for a relatively inexpensive solution from another club (a package deal for the Padres' Kevin Kouzmanoff built around Glen Perkins would seem to make a lot of sense, for instance). But if you're expecting any big splashes in the high-profile free agent market, you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.
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