When it was officially announced on Monday that the Twins had reached agreement with Matt Capps on a one-year, $4.5M deal, the reaction among fans was about as venomous as I've ever seen. My Twitter timeline lit up with angry, expletive-laden tirades. Even some of the most mild-mannered fans were directing profane vitriol toward Terry Ryan. You'd think the Twins hired Jerry Sandusky to be their ninth-inning man.
To be honest, I'm having a hard time understanding why some fans are soaked with such heavy disdain for Capps. He's a generally effective closer who had a bad run of outings during a lost season. The right-hander was certainly tough to watch at times over the summer, but in the grand scheme, he was a minor contributor to the club's woes.
In my mind, Capps has three things working against him with the Target Field Faithful, two of which are completely out of his control:
1) He's not Wilson Ramos.
Capps' career with the Twins began on a sour note, as he was acquired in a lopsided trade that was widely panned at the time and only looks worse in hindsight. This past season, while Joe Mauer's future at catcher was being cast in doubt, fans were forced to watch Capps blow nine saves while the player he was traded for, Wilson Ramos, enjoyed a successful rookie campaign in Washington.
There's no doubt that the Twins would be in better shape right now had that trade never happened, but it did. At this point it should have no bearing on our assessment of Capps.
2) He's not Joe Nathan.
Ryan did such a phenomenal job in identifying and acquiring Nathan that it seems he actually set the bar way too high for himself. In six seasons with the Twins before suffering a torn elbow ligament, Nathan was never off. Even at his worst, he was still one of the league's most dominant and reliable relief arms. There's a reason why many regarded him as the best closer in the game outside of Mariano Rivera during that span.
Capps is certainly a far cry from that level of excellence, but this doesn't mean he's bad. Like the vast majority of relievers in the major leagues, he's susceptible to down years, and he had one in 2011. More often than not, though, he's been perfectly adequate as a late-inning bullpen weapon. At 28, he's still in the heart of his prime.
One other thing: In spite of all his struggles this year, Capps had the second-best qualified WHIP on the team behind Scott Baker, allowing fewer base runners on average than Glen Perkins.
3) He pitched through an injury this year.
In radio and print interviews, Twins' coaches and front-office personnel have clearly been going out of their way this offseason to convince people that Capps' struggles were largely the result of a right wrist injury he was pitching through.
As I wrote a couple weeks ago, a close look at the numbers indicates that these claims are valid. At no point in Capps' career has he had nearly as much trouble striking people out; if he's healthy again in 2012 I suspect we'll see a return to normalcy in K-rate, which would almost surely result in improved numbers across the board.
I don't necessarily think Capps was doing the Twins any favors by pitching through his wrist tendinitis this year, but isn't it exactly the kind of thing most fans wanted to see more of? Sure, Capps was garbage when he took the mound for a period of time, but at least he was out there pitching.
On top of that, he took accountability for his failures, telling reporters "I'd boo me too" when the hometown fans turned against him.
To me, Capps' bum rap seems almost totally unwarranted. I don't love his new contract -- $4.5 million is on the very upper end of what I'd be willing to pay him and the club forfeited an extra draft pick by re-signing him -- but there's really no such thing as a bad one-year deal and locking him in at a reasonable enough rate shores up the back end of the bullpen while enabling Ryan to turn his attention elsewhere.
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
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41 comments:
Offseason optimism is persuading me to agree with you here. These are all valid points.
I just hope that when the season begins my optimism doesn't end.
Frankly I don't understand the vitriol either Nick. Capps was very good in 2010 and pretty bad for a lot of 2011 - like most of the rest of the team. I remember watching him pitch at TF last summer and seeing his numbers on the radar gun come up in the low 90's and thinking he wasn't the same pitcher as the year before. I think he can definitely have a bounce back year. I think the problem is that so far it looks like the Twins have returned to doing things on the cheap. However, Ryan has already said he's not done with the BP and I read rumors that we're talking with Edwin Jackson's agent which I think would be a very nice signing. I also like Kelly Johnson if he turns down arbitration from Toronto. I'd love to see us get a middle infielder with some power and then Trevor Plouffe can become the new Cuddyer.
The outrage might be extreme, but I think it's still a frustrating signing. It seems like it would not have been too difficult to sign a reliever with similar effectiveness for the same $, but without forfeighting the draft pick. It's also frustrating because I think it shows that the Twins are still horrible at valuing relievers, or at least closers.
"There's no doubt that the Twins would be in better shape right now had that trade never happened"
I suppose that is true looking forward, since Capps was a free agent and the Twins could have signed him anyway. They would now have Ramos and Capps.
But left out of that equation is the 2010 division championship. There are plenty of reasons to doubt that would have happened without Capps.
Ramos role on the Twins would be as a backup catcher. The folks who consider that trade terrible are expecting him to be a lot more than that. But that is still a projection. Its hard to see him playing a major role on a successful Twins team next year. If the Twins need a backup catcher that often, they are in trouble. Just like last year.
"But left out of that equation is the 2010 division championship. There are plenty of reasons to doubt that would have happened without Capps."
Name one.
I agree with Ed Bast. Jon Rauch could have done, and did, everything that Capps did.
Gleeman does a pretty good job of explaining the outrage, Nick. You may want to start there?
Sorry Nick but your off on the Capps having a better WHIP than Nathan, Nathans was lower than Capps. And as allways it seems even with our new ball park along with all its extra revenue all we ever do is go after the B or C level free agents.And with Terry Ryan and the Twins coming out and saying there cutting payroll after the terrible season they had both in the office and on the field its as allways about the cheap and im sick of it someone else can have my season tickets, I was foolish in thinking things would be differant with the new ball park. This is BS on so many levels. Ill still be a faN, but more from my couch and more from a distence. If the Tigers get Gio Gonzalez its over before it starts because the Twins wont sign any real free agents and were looking at best a 70-75 win season with this team. Same old same old. Im thinking Capps goes down injured before the season gets a few weeks old that, the way he throws if hes having or was having arm problems last year and doesnt change anything its only going to get worse and Andersons not a good enough pitching coach to figure that out.
Agree...as mediocre as Jon Rauch was, he did the job for most of the summer. It's just not all that difficult to find an average late inning reliever.
"Jon Rauch could have done, and did, everything that Capps did. "
You don't know that. And its pretty doubtful. The Twins didn't lose a single game in last two months because Capps couldn't hold the lead.
Capps appeared in 13 games, faced 102 batters and got 13 innings in each of those last two months. Rauch pitched great in June when he only appeared in 8 games, faced 34 batters and got 9 innings. He never approached Capps work load, and struggled badly in May and July when he faced over 40 batters.
But it is really irrelevant, because Capps didn't replace Rauch, the Twins had both Rauch and Capps. Capps innings would have been handed down until they reached guys like Alex Burnett. Even with Rauch to take some of the pressure off, Jesse Crain collapsed in September after appearing in 16 games in August.
In short, its not hard to see how Capps made the difference. All you have to imagine is Rauch blowing a few saves and the rest of the bullpen imploding from too much work. Things that actually happened, but weren't noticed because Capps was lights out when it mattered.
"All you have to imagine is Rauch blowing a few saves..."
Well, the Twins didn't try the last 2 weeks of the season and won the division by 6 games. The Twins lost 1 game all year due to a blown save. So, imagine a "few" Rauch blown saves and viola, there's, what, one more loss? Okay, they win the division by 5 games.
Capps blew 2 saves in 2 months, by the way. Rauch blew 4 in 4 months.
"...and the rest of the bullpen imploding from too much work. Things that actually happened..."
So let me get this straight - if the Twins hadn't acquired Capps, the rest of the bullpen would have imploded. Except that the bullpen imploded anyway. So really, what you're saying is, Capps was irrelevant? I don't get how this supports your "case".
No, the outrage is not excessive. The reasons why this is a cluster f* type of move are almost too many to mention. I'll still give it a shot.
1. The injury excuse doesn't work-Many of Capps stats were similar to his past work. 2. The injury is reason to be fearful, not hopeful. 3. The money was very much over what his true value is. 4. The fans hate the move and the organization should at least care what fans think following 99 loss season. 5. With the payroll dropping, the Twins wasted much of remaining funds on him, with so many other needs on the team. 6. Many other options for relievers were available and they still could have keep the draft pick. 7. Capps has no long term future with the club, so they are wasting an opportunity to try someone cheaper during a rebuilding year. 8. The Twins could have finally moved on from the Ramos nightmare. No need to go on. This shows the type of judgement skills from Terry Ryan that will continue to kill the Twins, a slide started by Bill Smith.
correction:
" faced 102 batters "
That is the total for the last two months, not each month.
Sorry Nick but your off on the Capps having a better WHIP than Nathan, Nathans was lower than Capps.
Ah, you're right about that. Nathan didn't have enough innings to qualify so he didn't show up when I took a quick look at the team leaders.
Fatt Capps sucks. I'll wait for your mid-season post that explains your error in judgement.
"So let me get this straight - if the Twins hadn't acquired Capps, the rest of the bullpen would have imploded. Except that the bullpen imploded anyway. So really, what you're saying is, Capps was irrelevant? I don't get how this supports your "case"."
You think the bullpen wouldn't have imploded if they hadn't traded for Capps? That Rauch, Crain, Mijares and Guerrier wouldn't have struggled? That those struggles wouldn't have been a lot more obvious coming in more critical situations? That they wouldn't have been worse if they were asked to pitch more?
Capps and Rauch were the only two of that bunch with WHIP's under 1.5 in September. They added Fuentes, which certainly helped, but he only faced 34 batters. Without Capps, that worn out bullpen would have had to face 100+ more batters almost all in high pressure situations with the game on the line.
The Twins won 14 games by 1 run in the last two months. They won 7 more by 2 runs. That's 21 opportunities for a tired bullpen to turn a loss into a victory.
@last anonymous- your post with its numbered list really emphasizes how silly the excessive outrage really is. Your #1 doesn't make any sense. Because he was able to put up some numbers that were similar to his career norms, that doesn't mean that the poor performances (particularly in the mid-late summer when he was injured) weren't impacted by an injury that will be healed by now, much less by the time the season starts. And because the injury is the type that should be healed by now and isn't a long-term problem, that makes your outrage in #2 just silly.
As far as #3, I highly doubt you know how to value MLB players. Capps' career numbers are similar to Broxton's and Broxton missed most of last year with an injury. Broxton just signed for $4 million. I would rather the Twins signed Capps for about $3-4 million, but it is what it is.
#4- the FO's job is to put together a winning ball club the best they can with the money they have to work with. Fans don't run a team, and for good reason.
#5- How is this a waste of funds? It's $4.75 million for a guy that got paid $7.15 million last year. That's getting the same guy back for $2.40 million less. It's an IF, but if Capps pitches like he did in 2010, $4.75 million is a bargain.
#6- and there are still options out there. This isn't the last bullpen move.
#7- Why not? He's 28. And I don't see why the Twins can't compete next year. There's no need for a knee-jerk reaction to a bad season.
#8- You don't make your team worse because you were on the worse end of a prior deal. Yeah, it would be nice to have Ramos still, but we don't and that's it. Crying about a year and a half later doesn't fix things, just like cutting ties with Capps doesn't fix things.
"You think the bullpen wouldn't have imploded if they hadn't traded for Capps?"
No, but if something would have happened whether the player was on the team or not, that's the definition of irrelevant.
Look, Capps marginally improved the bullpen - they used less Alex Burnett, for example. But to suggest they wouldn't have won the division without Capps is laughably ridiculous and just plain false, and it displays how wildy you overvalue the closer position.
@TT- I get where you're coming from in your arguments, but that's a really tough argument to make that Capps was responsible for getting the Twins into the playoffs in 2010.
The team, as a whole, was playing better as the year went on and Chicago and Detroit had their normal late season slide. The race for the division wasn't close and in the end, Capps only faced 105 batters in his time with the Twins. He was good, but the team was up by 12 games on September 23 that year. Delmon was very good offensively, Mauer was playing well, Thome was coming up with huge clutch performances, Valencia was playing very well, the starters had at the 5th lowest ERA in the AL, the defense was one of the best in the league.
Did Capps contribute to some success? Sure. But the 2010 Twins team would have lost in the first round of the playoffs with or without him.
BTW -
Two of those one run games were against the White Sox. If they had lost just those two games, the Twins would have ended the season 92-70 and the White Sox 90-72. A two game margin instead of six.
" but if something would have happened whether the player was on the team or not, that's the definition of irrelevant. "
No, it isn't, for exactly the reasons I gave. Without Capps, the consequences of the bullpen meltdown would have been far worse and the meltdown itself would likely have been far worse.
"it displays how wildy you overvalue the closer position."
Actually the suggestion that Capps replaced Rauch displays how wildly simplistic the evaluation of a closers' value can be.
Just as looking at the standings can distort how close things really were. The Twins did have a huge lead early in September. You are naive if you don't think that effected how teams approached the rest of the season. The race would have been very different if, instead of being 4 games out, the White Sox had won those two one run games and tied the race with an 11-0 win for a sweep.
Is that speculation? Yes. But so is anything else.
Yeah you really have to remember what happened rather than look at the standings. Capps blew 2 of his first 6 save opportunities, including one against the White Sox. Despite this, by Aug. 20, the Twins had a 6 game lead in the division, and the Sox never got closer. The race was over by mid August.
So, I want you to say it: The reason the Twins won the Central in 2010 because Matt Capps converted 4 of 6 saves (67%) in early August - no other pitcher we had could have accomplished that. That's what you're saying when you say the Twins wouldn't have won the division without Capps.
"no other pitcher we had could have accomplished that. "
Sure they could have. But then who would have pitched the 10th inning against the White Sox, assuming Rauch didn't actually lose the game, instead of leaving with two runners on base after giving up one run.
Like I said, this is the simplistic analysis by people who don't really understand the game. Its not surprising that they come to different conclusions than professional baseball people.
"The race was over by mid August."
No, it wasn't, as anyone familiar with baseball history knows.
TT, the point you're missing is that even if the Twins did desperately need to shore up their bullpen for the stretch run, they didn't need to give up Ramos to do it. They got Fuentes, a reliever who is at least as good as Capps, for almost nothing a few weeks later. They also probably could have gotten a good reliever who didn't have the "closer" tag for much less at the deadline.
The Twins got panicky, overvalued the save statistic and made a bad, short-sighted move. There were ways to rationalize it at the time (I certainly did so), but in retrospect trying to defend that move is just silly.
However, I must repeat: Our feelings about the trade should have no bearing on our current evaluation of Capps.
And just so we are clear about the real history, the White Sox were 3.5 games out on September 6th. You switch those two one run games to losses and they would have been 1/2 game up on the Twins.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2010-schedule-scores.shtml
Nick -
No one knew Fuentes was going to be available. And the reason he was available on waivers to the Twins was that no one with a worse record was willing to pay his salary and the waiver fee. Does anyone seriously think the Twins were going to hand him the closer job in the middle of a tight pennant race.
What no one wants to acknowledge is that Ramos had almost no value to the Twins in 2010. He was a minor league catcher. He would have had very little value if Mauer had stayed healthy in 2011. He may or may not have value in the future.
"They also probably could have gotten a good reliever who didn't have the "closer" tag for much less at the deadline."
Right. Its just a "tag". And that is where the real disagreement is.
Weighing in late here I know, but Capps was awful. It is not a need position for a team that will not be contending (So we blow some saves, we still won't be relevant this season). Why not try to find a closer organically, or try Perkins? Trade or sign a younger player. Why spend the money to protect leads that we aren't likely to often have? Bleh, terrible move. Happy to see Terry Ryan in there, this is just a further signal of how awful this organization's talent is right now. See you in 3 years. I hope I'm wrong.
"You switch those two one run games to losses and they would have been 1/2 game up on the Twins."
You're correct, I messed up my timeline there. However, your arguments continue to make zero sense. One of those "one run games" was in fact a blown save by Capps. I have no idea what the hell you're trying to say - if we didn't have Capps to blow one of those saves, we would have...I don't know, my head's going to explode.
"What no one wants to acknowledge is that Ramos had almost no value to the Twins in 2010."
Let's package together Hicks, Gibson, and Sano for Huston Street then. After all, those players have almost no value to the 2011 Twins.
Oh, and I'd be careful questioning my (or anyone's) baseball knowledge. You're the one who predicted the 2011 Twins would win "110+" games. I've predicted this downfall for a couple years now.
No offense Ed, I'm new here (Last anon post) - But predicting the downfall for a couple years would make you wrong for all but the last one.
Right. Its just a "tag". And that is where the real disagreement is.
I think the 2009 and 2011 seasons demonstrated that Capps is a pretty ordinary reliever, susceptible to the same slumps and ugly stretches as most non-closers.
What no one wants to acknowledge is that Ramos had almost no value to the Twins in 2010. He was a minor league catcher. He would have had very little value if Mauer had stayed healthy in 2011.
I've acknowledged this. It's why I didn't rip the move at the time. But if we're looking at it through the benefit of hindsight, which we clearly are based on your tedious arguments about Capps' specific impact on the 2010 stretch run, there's no denying that Ramos would have had plenty of value to the Twins last year and going forward.
The Ramos situation is a GM failure. You guys are right - Ramos would have had very little value in 2010 with a healthy Mauer. But Mauer's health was in doubt the year before, and we already knew Butera couldn't hit.
Also, what did we miss out on?
Mainly...
1. What else could we have gotten for Ramos?
2. Which closers could have been retained for less (Esp. given the disaster that they all were last year)?
Not trying to live in the past, but that was an obvious failure by Billy boy when it shook down.
Close your eyes, think back, and you will remember thinking "Why?" when that move was announced.
To better days!
"One of those "one run games" was in fact a blown save by Capps."
It was also a game where Rauch gave up the go ahead run the next inning and was replaced by Ron Mahay with two runners on base. Mahay got him out of the jam with only one run and Thome hit a two run homer in the bottom of the 10th.
So the question is what happens if Rauch blows the save instead of Capps. Does he give up another run and if he doesn't, who pitches the 10th. And how does Rauch do the next night when called on to make the save? Is he even available, or does he get left in the game after blowing the save?
In short - those two games are a microcosm of why "Rauch could do whatever Capps did" is an irrelevancy, even if it were true. They both contributed.
Can't we just agree that Capps was an important member of the 2010 team and that 2011 wasn't a very good year for him, or for the Twins? I'm pretty sure that no one player is singularly responsible for any team making or not making the playoffs.
Whether Capps was worth Ramos doesn't really matter, it's done. Unless Washington want to trade Ramos back for Capps, it can't be undone. Come April, the Twins will play, they'll win some, they'll lose some, Capps will save some, and he'll blow some. It's a one year deal. Best case he returns to form and saves 40 games, Twins win World Series, and he's a bargain at $6MM in 2013. Worst case, he's terrible, and we release him. Regardless, the number of batters he faced in the 2010 stretch run isn't going to affect how he does in 2012.
We do not agree. Any replacement-value AAA closer could have done what Capps did in 2010.
"I think the 2009 and 2011 seasons demonstrated that Capps is a pretty ordinary reliever"
I don't and apparently neither does Terry Ryan.
"there's no denying that Ramos would have had plenty of value to the Twins last year and going forward."
Of course there is. His value last year would have been to make a losing season less ugly, at best. His value going forward? Who knows? He had a decent rookie year. Lets see how he develops. In any case, the Twins were in the middle of a pennant race in 2010 and you don't get something for nothing.
I thought Ramos was a top prospect before the trade. And that the Twins traded him for Capps made me wonder whether I overrated him. But its the kind of deal you make when you have a shot at the playoffs.
"You're the one who predicted the 2011 Twins would win "110+" games."
"If everything went right" ... Are you seriously suggesting everything went right?
"His value last year would have been to make a losing season less ugly, at best"
... Capps' value this year, right?
2010 was no success. We battled to get in, then lost. YAY MATT. Even if it WAS a success, it's debatable (Evidence: this board) whether he had much to do with it - clearly it was not as much influence as at least 16+ other players had that season.
That guy is in the dictionary under "replaceable".
"Are you seriously suggesting everything went right?"
Were you seriously suggesting that if everything had "went right" the 2011 team would have been 16+ wins better than the 2010 team, even though they got rid of their middle infield and most of their bullpen without improving in the offseason at any position whatsoever? That sort of "analysis" makes it pretty easy to question your understanding of the game.
Anyhow, enough on Capps, it's just not true he was the reason they won the division in 2010, and they overpaid for him again this year. End of conversation.
I called him Matt C*apps a lot, a lot last year. Mostly due to his number of meltdowns. However, the salary is reasonable, we need bullpen help, and the Twins are spending as opposed to relying on Hoey or other less reliable options to fill the pen. And at the end of the day I have to give credit to a guy who knows he performed badly, was booed often, and has the jingle bells to come back to this team. My caveat to singing his praises is that I do expect that he pitches better next year.
What no one wants to acknowledge is that Ramos had almost no value to the Twins in 2010.
Among many poorly thought out things posted by TT in just this one thread, the above quote takes the cake.
A player who plays a premium defensive position like catcher and plays it well, who brings offensive skills to the position, who has reached the upper minors, and who will be dirt cheap for 3 years and under team control for 6, is just about the definition of "valuable" in baseball, regardless how much playing time he was going to get with the Twins.
He had 2010 value replacing Drew Buterrible as the backup catcher, even more value going forward, and even more value than that as a trade piece for something useful.
Instead, Bill Smith got about as little value as possible from him, both as a player on the big league club and as a trade piece.
You do not trade your new BMW for a used Hyundai simply because you plan on driving your Rolls on most days. The BMW still has more value than the Hyundai.
The problem I have is that with the Twins (a low run scoring offense) you can't put in a closer who is a pitch to contact guy. The defense has holes that they aren't willing to address and so runs will continue to be scored with Capps. Is he a decent closer maybe but not for this team.
You can't assume the worst when making a deal. "You do not trade your new BMW for a used hyundai". So you're clairvoyent? You knew when they made the trade that Capps would be injured and Mauer would have vaginitis or whatever the hell he had and we would end up needing Ramos? If that is the case and you can predict the future, we should make you the GM! Fact is, no one can predict the future and neither could the Twins.
You can't do everything based off "what could happen". When they made the deal, they were listening to fans. The same fans at that time who were begging the team to make midseason moves for the playoff push are not the same ones complaining about the moves 1.5 years later... ridiculous! That's why fans do not run front offices!
You knew when they made the trade that Capps would be injured and Mauer would have vaginitis or whatever the hell he had and we would end up needing Ramos?
No. But I knew it was yet another terrible move by Bill Smith. I (and many others) said so at the time.
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