Thursday, January 20, 2011

Optimism vs. Pessimism

For several weeks now, the Twins and Carl Pavano have been reported by various to sources to be close to a deal. Yesterday, the two sides finally reached agreement on a two-year, $16.5 million contract.

People will see this deal how they want to see it.

The optimist will focus on Pavano's marvelous 2010 campaign, in which he won 17 games with a 3.75 ERA. The pessimist will recall that in 2009, Pavano posted a 5.10 ERA with very similar peripherals.

The optimist will point out how durable Pavano was last year, when he racked up 221 innings and seven complete games. The pessimist will note that the 35-year-old right-hander has a lengthy injury history -- 2010 marked just the third time in a 13-year career he's surpassed 200 innings.

The optimist will celebrate the Twins opening the wallet to re-sign a high-quality veteran player. The pessimist will bemoan the loss of two high draft picks that would have come to the organization had they allowed Pavano to sign elsewhere and opted for an inexpensive one-year deal with Brandon Webb, or Jeff Francis, or Chris Young, or a similar starter.

The optimist will marvel at what a great deal the Twins got on Pavano. He will average just $8.25 million over the next two seasons; that's an incredible bargain for a free agent pitcher coming off the kind of year he just had.

The pessimist will conclude that Pavano's willingness to settle for a relatively modest $16.5 million after all this time indicates that the rest of the league wanted nothing to do with him. Granted, his Type A status was an inhibitor, but teams will generally give up draft picks to sign a player they like. Pavano was the opposite of a hot commodity. Few teams openly expressed any interest in him and the general manager for one team that was connected to him through media reports felt the need to come out and publicly dispel those myths.

With Pavano joining Jim Thome, Matt Capps and others on a roster that is rapidly taking shape and will apparently feature very few new faces from outside the organization, the optimist will commend the Twins for trying to hold together as much of last year's 94-win club as their expanded payroll restrictions will allow.

The pessimist will wonder why they're simply concocting a weaker version of the same recipe that got them booted from the playoffs in three games last October.

Toward which side do you lean?

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cautious pessimism? Seriously, I don't see any bold long term moves here. My biggest concern is that the Twins have become stuck with several overpriced contracts which leave them no flexibility if/when injuries hit them. I totally agree with you on the Capps signing. For some reason this organization consistently over-values relief pitchers at the expense of quality starters. I don't see any moves here that take them beyond the first round - if they make it that far.
DR

Shane said...

The off-season isn't even done yet. Furthermore, there is a lot of time before the deadline. The Twins seeing what happens with what they have and then making moves (RH bat, top-line pitcher) as necessary might actually be preferable to making some of the moves that some of the people want right now. Having Capps as insurance is good, but having him as trade bait if Nathan is fine by midseason is better. Capps and a few of these OF prospects will give the Twins ammo to make some of the moves that some of the people want later.

Kelly said...

Optimists are winners and vice versa. Pessimists are losers in every sense of the word.

You don't see many pessimists even planning HOW to win. And winners need to be finding away. Only optimists do that.

Kelly Vance said...

I am not so worried about Blackie or Slowey going to the pen with Perkins. How are they not as good as Rausch or Matt or Jessee for a couple innings? I think the Twins have some guys they can plug in, and being loyal to your guys is not a bad thing. It is that class and loyalty that has made the Twins one of the few teams that guys want to play for.
The Twins will find a way, and I am not worried that the Tigers and Sox have signed free agents. Team chemistry means more than having a lot of high priced names.

And I like our guys.

Kelly said...

Winning in the playoffs is often about pitching but also about having a couple guys get hot at the right time. I thought that Gardy made our guys stale by giving them too much time off before the playoffs. I think a couple days off after clinchimg and then extra BP was indicated. But Mauer was nursing a sore leg and a couple of the other guys needed a break too.

Look, sometimes you have a hot streak and sometimes a cold streak. The AL bested the NL for many years running in the All Star game. These things even out over time.

The Twins need to get a couple guys hitting well at playoff time and our lineup is as good as any team in baseball. But we need Frankie and Carl and the Duenslinger to get hot too. Remember that when they won a series in 87 the no. 3 starter behind Bert and Viola was Les Straker, or am I mixing up 87 and 91?

AK said...

Anonymous, which "overpriced" contracts are you referring to? Pavano is a good deal at 2/$16.5 and the Twins opted not to sign any of their departing relievers to multi-year deal. On top of that, they have a couple of major contracts ending after this season that will free up a bunch of cash. Anyway, all that to say, I don't know which over-priced contracts you speak of.

Ed Bast said...

Well unfortunately I found out today via Kelly that I'm a loser in every sense of the word. Not a good start to the day. I just can't help wondering how the '11 Twins are better constructed to win a playoff game, much less a series, than the '10 bunch or any of the other playoff embarrassments under Gardy for that matter. If someone can solve this riddle for me, maybe I'll become a winner in life after all.

Anonymous said...

Ed-The 2011 Twins are much better than last year, much better than any Twins team in history and probably will go down as the greatest team ever assembled. They could trade their whole roster for Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Tony Bautista, Brett Boone, Mike Lamb, etc and still be the best.

- Kelly

Dave said...

Finally Bast said something I can agree with...

thrillho said...

Ed - how should the Twins have gone about business this off season in order to solve your riddle? You can't just complain all the time, you need to offer realistic options.

Webb or Young weren't ideal imo, I'll take the guy with the injuries 3 years in his rearview mirror instead of the guys with the bandages on their arms. The Pavano signing was a good one to me, nice price and since he's been a Twin I've seen nothing but good.

Nick - you offer up his 2009 numbers with the same peripherals but fail to mention that those peripherals would indicate a 2010 performance rather than the unlucky 2009 he had. That's an easy way to keep the shape to your (strangely un-opinionated) blog post but it seems to purposely leave out some pertinent information.

Look, nothing is going to be perfect as a sports fan. I mean, look at the Yankees. More money than anyone else and their big fish this year was a terrible contract to an aging middle 8th inning arm. But the Twins with a healthy (cross your fingers) Morneau and a rebound from Baker/Slowey and continued improvement from Young and the unkown or Nishioka....well we just don't know. So there's your riddle Ed Bast - none of us really knows.

Anonymous said...

Overall I think they had a decent offseason. Pavano is a bargain for what he gives you. I get a little tired of watching Baker and Slowey with that deer in the headlights scared little boy routine. I'll take a guy that throws over 220 innings, keeps you in games, and isn't afraid to pitch to legit hitters.

None of the bullpen guys that left are worth the money they were paid. Especially with the wear and tear Gardy puts on them year after year. And honestly I'm still racking my brain fo the time that either Guerrier or Crain got a meaningful out in a big game against a team over .500 in a tough situation.

I think this is a bridge year. Nathan, Cuddy, and Capps all come off the books next season and the payroll becomes more managable.

They stick with the same team and look to make a run. If they fall out of contention Capps, Thome, Nathan, Cuddy, and Kubel become trade bait.

VodkaDave said...

Pavano 400+ IP last two years. FIP and xFIP of 3.96,4.00, 4.01, 4.02 next year.

Look for Pavano to give you 200+ IP in 2011 with an ERA between 3.60-4.40

That is easily worth 8.5 million, before you even mention intangibles (ability to put Slowey,Duensing etc in the pen) Mentoring etc etc

Josh said...

Cautiously optimistic about this signing. The risk isn't that high, the reward is significant.

I'm not thrilled with the Twins moves in totality, but they're all reasonable taken individually, which is interesting. They're relying on increased production internally rather than doing much to bolster the team from outside. It's a path that's worked for the team before, so it's not an unreasonable decision.

This team as constructed right now is competitive, and should challenge for the division title. They can win it. What happens in the playoffs...well, maybe all they really need is to catch a few breaks and/or play a team without really tough LH starting pitching...

Just One Guy Talkin' said...

How is everyone forgetting the fact we get to add a MVP and an All-Star closer to our playoff roster next year. THAT is how we are better. If they are both not healthy we go nowhere. If they are then who knows. We are not going to be able to compete with Mornie and Nathan's contracts on the books without them performing at very high levels.

Ed Bast said...

Thrillho, I've offered realistic options numerous times. They should have focused on 2 things: 1) starting pitching. Put together a package including say Kubel, one of their interchangeable soft-tossing starters, and a prospect or two for a Greinke or similar. Failing that, sign Brandon Webb or even Chris Young. 2) RH bat. Should have pushed for Derrick Lee. DH and insurance for when Morneau gets hurt. Also, failing to trade for a starter, put together a package for a RH 2B instead - I suggested Uggla, who could've been had.

Another thing I would not have done would be to get worse at SS. Contending teams don't blatantly downgrade at premium defensive positions.

Anonymous said...

There is nothing at all wrong with signing Pavano for 2 years and 16.5mil. It's a steal! That said it just makes the Twins about as good or a little worse than last year. At this point though how can you argue with the signing? 15 teams could have picked up Pavano without offering a 1st RD pick. The Yankees offered him 1 year 11 million and that WOULD have been a draft pick lost. Pavano could have easily been signed by a team and we would have got NO 1st RD compensation. I'm not exicted that the blogger of this site didn't seem to know that. The 8.5 for 2yrs is also worth a 5.12 ERA and 200+ IP based on current salaries. Livian Hernandez made 5 million for a 1YR deal 3 years ago! Give me a break. The Twins need a ace #1 pitcher, a solid shortstop and a good hitting/good defender in the outfield. They lack all of these items. This is what will cost us this year.

jbiowa said...

I have always seen 2011 as a "down" year for the Twins given the carryover on payroll and the uncertainty about Morneau and Nathan. That's why I have been okay with the Casilla-Nishioka experment. It may be a flaming failure or a pleasant surprise. Since my expectations for this season are tempered, I'm mostly just interested to see how it turns out.

I was very hesitant about a 2-year contract for Pavano because I thought it might tie up too many resources and prevent them from going after a true front-line starter later in the season or next off-season. But I can live with $16.5 for 2 years -- and I think that Pavano will earn it. I also think there is a little more payroll flexibility there than I initially thought. I was convinced on the $115 million mark but I'm starting to think it may be more in the range of 120-125.

There are a lot of question marks about this team -- at least it will be interesting (although not necessarily fun) to find out the answers. And the good thing is that both the Capps & Thome contracts are 1 year shots. Combine that with the other money coming off the books after the 2011 season and the Twins should be in a position to make the next off-season a lot more interesting than this one.

Nick N. said...

Nick - you offer up his 2009 numbers with the same peripherals but fail to mention that those peripherals would indicate a 2010 performance rather than the unlucky 2009 he had.

In '09, Pavano was unlucky. Last year, he was lucky (well, except late in the season and in the playoffs when his luck seemed to catch up with him). These things fluctuate and are impossible to predict. I do know that he's another year older and will probably have a worse defense behind him, especially if Morneau can't go.

Remember that when they won a series in 87 the no. 3 starter behind Bert and Viola was Les Straker, or am I mixing up 87 and 91?

Look, even the pessimists -- well, the reasonable ones anyway -- aren't counting the Twins out. It's a good team and anything can happen. Those '87 Twins were not favored by many to be WS Champs at the start of the season, or the the postseason, and rightfully so. But they got hot at the right time, and they were couldn't lose in front of their home crowd in October. Things like that rise above any statistical pattern and they're what make the game great.

Analysis like mine is only concerned with breaking down the things we CAN try to predict, and I humbly feel that for the most part I'm pretty accurate with those. Certainly not all the time. If you asked me to predict the AL Central right now, I'd probably have the Twins third, but would I be the least bit surprised if they ended up coming out on top? Absolutely not.

I'll take a guy that throws over 220 innings, keeps you in games, and isn't afraid to pitch to legit hitters.

Pavano has thrown 220 innings twice in a 13-year career. To imply that it's his standard benchmark is disingenuous.

How is everyone forgetting the fact we get to add a MVP and an All-Star closer to our playoff roster next year. THAT is how we are better.

Because it's not a fact. It's a fierce hope living within all of us that many are afraid to speak about for fear of jinxing it. In all honesty, based on everything I'm hearing, I'm not all that optimistic about either of them.

1) starting pitching. Put together a package including say Kubel, one of their interchangeable soft-tossing starters, and a prospect or two for a Greinke or similar. Failing that, sign Brandon Webb or even Chris Young.

I think thrillho (who has one of the all-time great nicknames -- "Mom, buy me BoneStorm or go to hell!") will argue that your first solution isn't realistic. The Royals wouldn't deal with the Twins and what other "similar" pitchers to Greinke were available this offseason?

I agree with you about taking a flier on someone like Webb or Young though. To me, the value of having six young cheap starters is that it gives you the depth to take a chance on a high-upside guy like that. Sort of like Ramon Ortiz and Livan Hernandez except pitchers that are actually good.

Nick N. said...

Pavano could have easily been signed by a team and we would have got NO 1st RD compensation.

I never said first-round compensation. I said that if Pavano signed elsewhere the Twins would get two high draft picks (at worst, a supplemental between the 1st/2nd and a 3rd rounder). High draft picks are very valuable and the Twins' farm system is not a strength right now.

Kelly said...

"I think this is a bridge year. Nathan, Cuddy, and Capps all come off the books next season and the payroll becomes more managable.

They stick with the same team and look to make a run. If they fall out of contention Capps, Thome, Nathan, Cuddy, and Kubel become trade bait."


I agree. But doubt the Twins ever trade Cuddy. He's family. Personally, I don't understand al teh gloom anddoom. We have young sticks in the lineup, Young, Valencia, Mauer and Morneau. Those guys are as good as anybody. Add Kubel, Cuddy, and Span and we have solid hitters 1-7. Thome off th ebench is awesome. So our middle infielders dont hit 300. Few do. What, me worry?

Anonymous said...

cautious optimism. and to comment on the whole putting blackie or kkk-slowride out in the bullpen, I'd rather see blackie go, though I regret the words as I type them. Slowride just has more potential in my eyes than blakie (or even baker, but i realize no one would consider puttting shake 'n' bake in the 'pen). Definately keep k-slow though, blackie is a risk in the rotation, while i realize slowey is too, blackburn has been more inconsistant and well i just like kevin more than nick

Anonymous said...

I agree, there is no way in hell cuddy will be traded, he is family and everyone loves him. he's great with fans whether they are 1 or 100 and i dare anyone to say otherwise. We do have amazing 1-7 and average 8 & 9 hitters so no worries there. I'd like to see valencia hitting say 5th or 6th instead of 7th or 8th (on days thome plays, thome could hit 5th and danny 6th or vice versa) heck, he could take 2nd if he's as consistant as last year. Maybe it could be Span, Valencia/Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Thome/Valencia/Kubel, Cuddyer/Valencia/Young, Cassilla, Nishioka. thoughts?

Jesse said...

You can put me in the pessimism camp for the team in 2011:

Mauer - 2009 Mauer was a fluke but I'll take an OPS of .875 any day of the week from a catcher. Positive

Morneau - Can't even participate in baseball activities yet and we are over half a year from the injury. He will be down this year.
Negative


Nishioka - A guy that will be closer to Kaz than Ichiro
. Negative.

Casilla - A tease that will fail in his starting role again for the Twins. Negative.

Valencia - A guy on the rise who got better as the year went on. Positive.

Young - A guy on the rise who is playing for a payday. Positive.

Span - A guy whose OBP will bounce back. Positive.

Cuddyer - A guy who is on the downside having a healthy year yet hit 40 points below his career OPS. Negative.

Liriano - Coming back from surgery and just getting better. Positive

Kubel - Worst OPS since 2006 and I think it goes backwards. Negative


Thome - All those stats about 40 year old sluggers can't be wrong. Negative

Pavano - I think his success of 2010 will carry over. Positive.

Baker - A flake of a pitcher whose talent will never overcome his head. Negative.

Slowey - Health risk who will break down again. Negative.

Blackburn - The most hittable starting pitcher in the league it feels like. Negative.

Nathan - He isn't coming back from Tommy John this quickly. Negative.

Capps - Not worth the 7 million but he will be fine. Positive.

Of the core of the team (not counting bullpen/bench both of which I am down on) I have 11 negatives to 7 positives and the only guy on the horizon in the minors this year that might make a difference is Gibson. We are taking a step back this season but still may make the playoffs for our next sweep.

Christopher said...

I was on the optimism side up until the very last pessimist view. So true that this time is simply slightly worse than last years. There is always the Morneau factor though. If he stays healthy last year we could have gone all the way. Same is true for this year.

Chris said...

I'm an optimist for the future, but that's not this year. We don't have deep enough pockets to patch all our needs, so eventually you have to take a chance on young talent. The method and the players can always be debated, but the turnover to young cheap talent must happen.

The signings this year are a decent attempt to remain competitive without totally rebuilding. The upside, a large number of short term contracts that provide flexibility for the following year. Definitely not a recipe for short term success and depressing if you were hoping for more. A great way to be rebuild without a total fire sale.

The middle infield/bullpen are up this year, the outfield change over is next year. 2010 was our make or break year, now its time to build for 2014.

Anonymous said...

We have young sticks in the lineup, Young, Valencia, Mauer and Morneau. Those guys are as good as anybody. Add Kubel, Cuddy, and Span and we have solid hitters 1-7.

so delmon and valencia are as good as anybody? who knows how morneau is going to be if he ever plays again. kubel is a very hot and cold hitter, mostly cold. cuddy and span are overrated. guess i am a pessimist.

Kirby said...

Delmon was in anybody's top ten list for MVP. He is onky 24. Valencia was amazing as a rookie. yeah, damn right they are as good as anybody. Unles syo uare bound and determined to see the glass half empty.

Twins are winners. Critics are losers.