Wednesday, December 01, 2010

A Cursory Glance at Pavano's Potential Suitors

Last night marked the deadline for Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain to accept the Twins' arbitration offers. As expected, all three declined, meaning they will test the open market as free agents. Should they sign elsewhere, the Twins will be compensated with draft picks.

Any of the three can be brought back, but the Twins are unlikely to come out on top of a bidding war for Pavano or Crain -- both of whom are reportedly drawing a great deal of early interest -- and the team hasn't even pretended to have any real interest in bringing Hudson back.

By signing elsewhere, each of the three players would supply the Twins with an additional sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the 2011 draft. As a Type A, Pavano would also yield an additional pick. The placement of that draft pick is dependent on where Pavano ends up, so his eventual destination is well worth tracking.

The compensation system calls for the team signing Pavano to surrender their top pick. However, a number of first-round selections are protected (the first non-protected pick this year is the Tigers at No. 19, as this handy graphic illustrates); if a team with a protected first-rounder signs Pavano, the Twins would gain that team's second-round pick.

With this in mind, let's sort through a few of the clubs that have been rumored to have interest in employing Pavano and his illustrious mustache.

1. Nationals

Adam Kilgore, who covers the Nats for the Washington Post, tweeted yesterday that the team is in discussions with Pavano. After another dismal year, Washington is slotted to pick sixth in next year's draft so they're protected. The fact that they'd surrender only a second-rounder (which grow less and less valuable with each added supplemental pick) could make them a more likely destination than those teams with non-protected first-round picks. Teams like...

2. Rangers

The Rangers have become extremely aggressive in addressing their needs over the past year. They seem determined to try and bring back Cliff Lee, but if they're unable to do so Texas could turn to the best remaining option: Pavano. The Rangers' No. 26 pick in the 2011 draft is unprotected, but the departure of Lee -- a Type A -- would garner them two additional top picks and perhaps make that loss palatable.

3. Astros

Pavano's name was one of a handful that Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle tossed out as potential targets for the Astros, suggesting that the team may seek to bolster its appeal to potential buyers by adding some big names. The Astros pick 11th in the first round, so the Twins would receive their second-rounder.

The Marlins (14th pick, protected) were also rumored to be interested in Pavano, but they're likely out of the mix now that they've added Javier Vazquez. Same goes for the Rockies (20th pick, non-protected), who were in on Pavano before re-signing Jorge De La Rosa. That No. 20 pick would have been a great value for the Twins; it also would have been a very costly loss for Colorado, which may have played into their decision to bring back De La Rosa instead of pursuing Pavano.

With the Winter Meetings fast approaching, I'm sure we'll hear more and more rumors emerge regarding Pavano suitors. Twins fans can follow this storyline with great interest, and not just out of curiosity over whether the righty's stache will blend in with his uniform colors in 2011.


KL Snow said...

I don't have any evidence to back this up, but I feel like the Brewers at least merit mention here.

cy1time said...

Is there some double secret plan to bolster our starting pitching? By the middle of May, assuming Pavano is gone, there will be a lot of fans wondering why our starting pitching seems a little suspect. Our stable of #3 starters will look a little worse running into the #1 starter on other teams.

Matt said...

Is there some double secret plan to bolster our starting pitching?
I had read somewhere that our GM's top priorities going into the winter meetings was middle infield and bullpen.
So if there is a plan to upgrade the rotation, it's triple secret with a cherry on top; at least at this point.

Ben said...
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Ben said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you also need to factor in whether the club that signs Pavano also signs additional type A free agents. In that scenario, the team losing the highest ranked free agent gets the signing team's 1st round pick, and teams losing the other type A free agents get sandwich picks, right?

Nick N. said...

In that scenario, the team losing the highest ranked free agent gets the signing team's 1st round pick, and teams losing the other type A free agents get sandwich picks, right?

That's a good point and I must confess I'm not certain what happens in that scenario. What you said sounds right.

Alex Christensen said...

I've read that there is a possibility that Pavano wants to stay in Minnesota. What are the chances that he resigns (whether it's a single- or multi-year deal) and is there a 'hometown' discount available to the Twins?

Bryz said...

In that scenario, the team losing the highest ranked free agent gets the signing team's 1st round pick, and teams losing the other type A free agents get sandwich picks, right?

Let's say that Team X signs 3 Type A free agents (and for simplicity the picks are unprotected). The first free agent was ranked the highest and belonged to Team 1. Team 1 gets Team X's 1st round pick and a supplementary pick. Team 2 had the 2nd highest ranked free agent, so they would get Team X's 2nd round pick and a supplementary pick. Team 3 would then get a 3rd round pick and a supplementary pick.

At least that's what I believe is true.

Dave said...

This is off topic, but damn, the twins may not even have to worry about being beaten by the Yanks next year.

The Red Sox will win the East and win the world series, and it isn't even close. That is if the Gonzo deal goes down as reported. I already know right now that I want second pick in my fantasy draft, because first will grab Pujols and I will grab 45 HR's and 130 RBI worth of Fenway inflated goodness. Think Tex was impressive with the short porch? Watch Gonzo effortlessly flick fastball away for 260' homers over the monster.

I bet the Yankees fall to third decisively behind Tampa and a league leading total from the BoSox.

Polish Sausage said...

Um, Cliff Lee? The Yanks will be just fine. TB is losing their best player and nearly all their bullpen. But the Twins should be more worried about Chicago and Detroit. Both those teams have already made themselves much better, while the Twins figure to be worse unless they can pull a frontline starter out of a hat. On paper of course.

Anonymous said...

funny how fans who laugh at jeter's contract seem to forget mauer's contract here. face it teams have to pay for more than just numbers.

Dave said...

The Yankees don't have cliff lee yet, and the sox could add on Crawford or Werth. I would take Gonzo + Craw/Werth any day over Lee.

Actually, I give the Rangers a fair shot at landing Lee. It's by no means a done deal.

Polish Sausage said...

Sox don't have Gonzo yet either.

Dave said...

Hmmm, I thought that I predicated my post on something... oh yea, "if the Gonzo deal goes down as reported." So no, as far as my post goes, the sox do have Gonzo.